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FXUS64 KFWD 031808 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 108 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New Aviation

SHORT TERM
/Issued 528 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ Update:

Overnight convection has moved to the east of our area early this morning but we'll be watching the ongoing thunderstorms to our north to see if any boundaries sneak into North Texas prior to peak heating. At this hour, there is a slow moving cold front to our north across Oklahoma where thunderstorms have developed. This activity should remain just out of our area over the next few hours. Farther south, another boundary separates higher theta-e air across the Hill Country and southeast TX from the semi-worked over airmass across North Texas. RAP objective analysis and surface observations show a fairly large minimum in surface dewpoints across the region which is likely contributing to the nearly 400 J/kg of convective inhibition that is indicated by the RAP guidance. In theory, this should keep convective activity to a minimum through a good part of the day, despite nearly 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE above the near surface inversion. For today, we'll be watching the moisture boundary across our southern counties as it should creep northward through late morning and early afternoon.
This will likely result in an increase in scattered showers and storms south of I-20 through the early afternoon. Thunderstorms will again fire along a dryline across West Texas, but nearly all of the guidance suggests that this activity will make it into our western counties after dark, so we have substantially raised PoPs across our west for tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes are needed at this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Saturday/

An active pattern is expected to continue across the Southern Plains into the weekend with periodic storm chances through Saturday. At this hour, a cluster of thunderstorms extends from near Hillsboro south toward Lampasas and these should survive for at least another hour or two given an unstable airmass. The main threat will be some locally strong wind gusts and hail along with very heavy rainfall through the rest of the overnight hours. For the remainder of the night, storm chances will be highest just downstream of the current convection with low probabilities of additional storms developing.

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place on Friday characterized by high theta-e air, weak capping, and generally weak low level wind fields. The main driver for additional convection will be a potential lingering outflow boundary from current thunderstorms ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma.
The high-res guidance suggests that some of this convection will spread south overnight and into our northeast counties by morning with an outflow boundary pushing south toward the I-20 corridor into the afternoon. In the absence of any strong forcing for ascent, this remnant boundary or boundaries from tonight's convection would serve as a focus for additional storms Friday afternoon. The favored area for this to occur would be east of I-35. Additionally, the dryline should be displaced farther to the west Friday afternoon where convection will likely develop across West Texas. We'll keep PoPs around 20% for most areas Friday with the exception of our eastern/southeastern counties. These areas may see a little better coverage of scattered storms.

Otherwise, we'll be watching West Texas convection late Friday evening as it makes a push toward our western counties. We'll show some slightly higher PoPs west of I-35 late Friday night for any remnant activity that may approach. On Saturday, a weak front will slide south through Oklahoma and into North Texas in conjunction with an approaching upper disturbance. This increasing forcing for ascent along with the front will likely lead to an increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms. We'll have generally high PoPs across the region, but will refine the details over the next 24 hours. No widespread severe threat is currently forecast, but the environment will continue to support a few severe storms with a hail/wind threat. The flash flooding threat will be locally high with any slow moving thunderstorms through the weekend.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ Update:

An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, with potential for showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening. Of course, this will largely depend on a variety of factors - most notably the exact placement of the frontal boundary and any residual outflow boundaries from previous convective activity.
There will exist a low-end potential for severe weather, which will need to be closely monitored over the next few days. The main concerns regarding this include large hail, damaging winds, and additional rounds of heavy rainfall which may lead to a reemergence of flooding issues across Central Texas. Thankfully there appears to be a brief period of relatively low rain chances as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico, which will help to limit most severe weather concerns through the week.
Along with this, continual southerly flow will allow our afternoon highs to steadily creep into the mid 80s and low 90s across the area. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, lingering in the low 70s. For more specific details, please refer to the previous long term discussion down below and continue to check for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Saturday Night and Beyond/

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20 Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35 as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low 90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the forecast over the next several days as we further refine the details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low storm potential this afternoon. MVFR/IFR expected once again tonight through tomorrow.

With the unsettled weather pattern continuing atop North and Central Texas, there will be a renewed chance of isolated storms within the D10 airspace this afternoon. Coverage will remain minimal, but some impacts to aviation traffic will be possible.
Any storms that do develop will dissipate after sunset as south winds persist.

The dryline, which will be across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, will once again fire off thunderstorms this afternoon.
Storms are expected to remain west of the D10 airspace, however, any westward traffic may see impacts due to the afternoon and evening convection.

Ceilings will be deteriorating overnight, with MVFR around midnight, then IFR closer to 08Z. This trend is fairly similar across Waco where a similar airmass will be in place. The sub-VFR ceilings are expected to linger through tomorrow morning before improvements begin in the afternoon.

Storm potential tomorrow afternoon remains too uncertain to mention in the TAF. There is higher confidence in tomorrow night's convection, however, that is beyond this forecast cycle.

Hernandez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 68 79 69 / 20 20 70 70 20 Waco 68 80 68 79 68 / 20 40 60 60 20 Paris 64 79 65 76 66 / 20 40 60 80 20 Denton 66 79 66 79 67 / 20 20 70 70 20 McKinney 66 79 67 78 68 / 20 20 70 70 20 Dallas 68 80 68 79 69 / 20 20 70 70 20 Terrell 66 80 67 79 68 / 20 30 60 70 20 Corsicana 68 82 69 81 70 / 20 40 50 70 20 Temple 68 81 68 80 69 / 20 40 50 60 20 Mineral Wells 66 80 66 79 67 / 30 30 80 70 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175.

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