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FXUS64 KFWD 080116 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 816 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Wednesday/

A warm front continues to drift northwestward across the region.
In our southwest, MLCAPE values have soared above 3000 J/kg as the mT air returned. Better moisture convergence beyond our southwestern frontier was evidenced by a few congested cumulus in the vicinity of Junction and Brady, but CIN continues to win out.
We'll still need to watch this area through the mid-evening before the loss of daytime heating reinforces the inhibition. Any cell that is able to develop could quickly become severe with large hail and damaging winds. Despite the backed surface winds near the boundary, generally weak flow beneath the LCL should limit the tornadic potential. After dark, our focus will shift to Northeast Texas where a strengthening low-level jet will ride over the retreating frontal boundary. While these storms would also pose a hail/wind threat, the window will be small before the main forcing shifts deeper into the Ark-La-Tex.

Nocturnal stratus within the low-level jet will race northward, blanketing much of the region well before daybreak. Noticeably more humid conditions will be in place by sunrise, with many locations enduring dew points well into the 70s. The May sunshine will eventually lift/erode the cloud deck, and afternoon temperatures will soar above normal again on Wednesday. A cold front will enter the region late in the day, the veering surface flow enhancing afternoon highs. The veering prefrontal flow will also limit the convective potential along much of the boundary.
However, east of the I-35 corridor where richer boundary layer moisture will coincide with surface flow less prone to veering, we'll expect convective initiation during the afternoon hours.
CAMs continue to focus storms in areas east and northeast of the Metroplex. Considerable MLCAPE values will mean a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Initial discrete cells, particularly those near the boundary, may also pose a tornado threat with stronger surface flow and rather low LCLs for peak heating. The activity, along with the accompanying front, should exit to our east by late evening.

25

LONG TERM
/Issued 218 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/ /Thursday and Beyond/

Weak surface low pressure will shift across the Ohio River Valley Thursday with a trailing cold front extending into portions of East and Central Texas. This frontal boundary will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening (not everyone will see storms!) as it gradually pushes toward the Texas Gulf Coast. 7.5-8.0 degreeC/km mid-level lapse rates atop a very moist airmass marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will lead to strong instability ahead of the frontal boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg SBCAPE by Thursday afternoon across much of Central Texas. 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear will allow for organized storm structures capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Weak low-level flow will likely keep the tornado threat low. The greatest storm chances will remain along/south of the I-20 corridor Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening until the cold front finally pushes out of our forecast area late Thursday evening. We will also need to monitor the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially since the bulk of this rainfall is expected to fall over already water-logged areas across Central and East Texas.

Northerly low-level flow behind the frontal boundary will usher in a drier, cooler airmass, allowing for a nice start to the weekend with highs in the mid-70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s expected Friday and Saturday.

Onshore flow will return to North and Central Texas by Sunday beginning a gradual increase in low-level moisture and cloud cover. Isolated to scattered rain chances could return to the region by early Sunday across our west and south on the nose of this stronger warm/moist advection, especially as a mid-level disturbance approaches from the west. An active subtropical jet overtop sufficient moisture will keep at least daily low to medium chances for rain through the midweek period across North and Central Texas. Limited instability will likely keep the severe threat on the lower end through at least Monday, but we will need to assess this potential further as we get closer to the weekend.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Concerns include storm potential and MVFR ceilings in the morning.

Convective attempts are struggling in the Hill Country, but an evening storm or two may approach Waco through mid-evening.
Development later this evening across Northeast Texas may impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Bonham cornerpost, but the window for this activity will be small.

A low-level jet may introduce some marginal LLWS though increasing wind speeds within the surface layer will be breezy. This low- level jet will surge stratus northward. Waco will have the greater potential for IFR, particularly with the initial surge, but ceilings may also briefly dip below 1000ft AGL within the Metroplex. VFR will return by midday.

A cold front will veer the surface flow Wednesday afternoon. In addition, storms may develop along the boundary near Dallas. These would also impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Bonham cornerpost during the afternoon and evening before the activity exits to our east. The frontal wind shift is beyond the scope of most of the TAFs but has been introduced into the extended portion of the DFW TAF (Wednesday evening).

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 92 67 81 62 / 5 10 10 30 20 Waco 73 88 71 82 62 / 10 10 5 40 20 Paris 70 86 63 81 59 / 10 30 40 30 20 Denton 70 90 63 81 58 / 0 10 10 20 10 McKinney 71 90 64 80 59 / 5 20 20 30 10 Dallas 73 91 67 82 62 / 5 20 10 30 20 Terrell 72 87 67 82 60 / 20 20 20 30 20 Corsicana 74 89 71 84 62 / 10 20 10 40 20 Temple 73 89 70 84 62 / 20 10 5 40 10 Mineral Wells 70 91 63 80 58 / 0 5 5 20 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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