Saturday, August18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Worth, TX

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Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 8:12PM Friday August 17, 2018 11:39 PM CDT (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:27PMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Worth, TX
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location: 32.77, -97.29     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 180232 aab
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
932 pm cdt Fri aug 17 2018

Weakening convection continues across our northwestern counties
and parts of southern oklahoma this evening. However, this likely
won't be the end of rain for the night. A weak boundary lies
across oklahoma but an outflow boundary is slowly moving southeast
across our northwestern counties. We remain in northerly flow
aloft with an upper level ridge to our west. Overnight, additional
isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop across parts
of southern oklahoma and areas of north texas north of
i-20... Mostly likely east of interstate 35. This is where models
are indicating an area of isentropic lift will occur underneath
the tail end of a weak disturbance moving aloft. Convection will
likely develop along the stalled boundary in southern oklahoma and
could drift south. In addition, with an increasing low level jet
around and after midnight, additional convection may develop
closer to the weak outflow boundary. I did not make significant
changes to the pops overnight, keeping 20 percent, but expanded
the previous areas a little.

Otherwise expect a warm and humid night across much of the region.


Aviation issued 652 pm cdt Fri aug 17 2018
00 utc TAF cycle
concerns---convective and wind shift potential on Saturday at
metroplex tafs. Otherwise,VFR.

The current cluster of thunderstorms along the red river may
continue to impact northbound departures as well as arrivals from
the northwest. This activity is expected to decay before making a
run at the metroplex tafs. We'll monitor these storms and amend if
they appear to threaten metroplex tafs. Overnight, lift will
increase above fl080 to result in high-based convection. Moisture
isn't overly deep, so it's possible that only showers may result
and for now, i'll advertise vcsh from 08 to 11 utc on Saturday. If
00 utc guidance arrives and supports ts, this may need to be re-
inserted into the taf. Sh or TS could result in some turbulence
below fl080. Later in the day... A cold front will slowly sag
southward and will induce westerly surface winds. Some guidance
advertises that winds may become more wnw at around 6-8 knots and
this could necessitate a shift in the takeoff landing
configurations. As this boundary nears the i-20 corridor, new
convection appears probable and i've placed vcts in for all
metroplex terminals between 22 utc Saturday and 02 utc Sunday.

Winds may also become more northerly Saturday afternoon and
evening, depending on the southward extent of the front.

Confidence as to how far south this front wind shift gets is low.

If this wind shift does occur, it'll likely be for a 2-4 hour time
period and southerly winds should return by 05 utc Sunday.

Waco will remain south enough such that the threat for convection
is very low. With dry air just above the surface, only a few
puffs of CU are expected. Otherwise,VFR with just a few high
clouds streaming in overhead.


Short term issued 325 pm cdt Fri aug 17 2018
rest of today and tonight
visible satellite imagery reveals a small area of towering cumulus
bubbling across our northwestern counties where a few convective
cells are trying to develop. Mesoanalysis reveals a local minimum
in mixed-layer convective inhibition here, so we'll carry a 20%
pop this afternoon north and west of a cisco to mineral wells to
gainesville line to account for any additional development. Since
things are unstable and nearly uncapped elsewhere across north
texas, we'll advertise a very low (10%) mention elsewhere mainly
north of i-20 through the afternoon. Dcape values pushing
1000-1500 j kg support a localized downburst threat in the
vicinity of any more robust cells, and a 50-60 mph gust cannot be
discounted, although thus far, cells are having a hard time
establishing themselves.

This activity will dwindle with the loss of heating this evening,
but additional storms will likely be firing in the vicinity of a
cold front which will be pushing towards the red river this
evening. Since this activity will be surface-based, it too should
also begin to succumb to the effects of increasing nocturnal
inhibition through the evening hours. We'll hold the highest (30%)
pops to the immediate red river counties, but can't rule out a
stray shower or storm attempting to push south towards the i-20
corridor. A very localized threat for a strong to severe wind
gust will persist through about 10 pm from montague to fannin

Late tonight an area of strong ascent--elevated above the
stabilizing boundary layer--will materialize across north texas
as a 25-35 kt low- level jet develops. Things look too dry west of
i-35 to support elevated convection, but moisture increases to
the east. Given the magnitude of forecast ascent and presence of
1000-1500 j kg of mucape, we've introduced low pops roughly east
of i-35 and north of i-20 after midnight. Severe weather is not
anticipated given very weak mid-level winds.


Long term issued 325 pm cdt Fri aug 17 2018
Saturday through Friday
similar to this morning, a cluster of thunderstorms may be ongoing
mainly to the north early Saturday morning primarily due to a strong
band of low level warm advection which will be maximized near the
red river. This activity should be in a weakening state as the low
level flow continues to veer and weaken through the morning hours.

While this convection may send an outflow boundary southward, the
main feature of concern will be the quasi-stationary frontal
boundary across southern oklahoma. This front will likely begin to
slowly advance southward as a cold front in the wake of a weak mid
level shortwave that spreads through the region. Surface winds are
expected to weaken as the front moves into north texas which will
allow temperatures to climb to near 100 degrees areawide. In
addition, moisture may pool along the boundary creating pockets
of very hot and humid conditions with heat indices in excess of
105 degrees. Convergence along the front will be weak but as we
progress through the afternoon and temperatures climb, we should
see some higher based convection attempt to develop. This activity
should increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early
evening hours as stronger forcing for ascent spreads into the
southern plains. We'll keep pops at 20-30% mainly from the
metroplex northward tomorrow afternoon and evening. Any storms
that develop tomorrow afternoon would have ample dry air beneath
them to support damaging downburst winds.

On Sunday, as the main shortwave digs into the plains, the weak
frontal boundary across our area should spread northward into
oklahoma. With the strongest ascent spreading northward, we should
see less activity around than we do on Saturday and any isolated
storms should be confined to areas mainly north of the metroplex.

Stronger forcing for ascent will arrive Sunday night as this
shortwave ejects eastward and the main cold front slides south
into north texas. Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday
night into Monday morning from north to south along and ahead of
the cold front. With the main area of forcing spreading farther
east though, not all areas are expected to pick up rainfall.

Coverage may actually decrease on Monday morning with new
thunderstorms developing across the southeast late Monday
afternoon and evening.

The air behind this front isn't very cool or significantly drier,
so temperatures will only fall into the lower 90s which is still a
few degrees below seasonal norms. Low thunderstorm chances may
creep back into the picture by late next week as moist low level
flow spreads back into the region and a disturbance rotates around
stronger ridging to the west. We'll continue to monitor this


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 80 99 80 96 78 20 30 20 20 40
waco 79 101 78 98 78 5 10 5 5 20
paris 77 94 75 92 74 20 30 30 30 60
denton 78 98 77 95 76 20 30 20 20 40
mckinney 79 98 78 95 76 20 30 20 20 40
dallas 83 100 81 96 79 20 30 20 20 40
terrell 79 99 78 96 78 20 30 20 20 30
corsicana 78 100 78 97 77 10 20 10 10 20
temple 76 100 76 99 76 0 5 5 5 10
mineral wells 75 99 76 96 74 20 30 10 10 40

Fwd watches warnings advisories

82 24

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX5 mi46 minSE 810.00 miFair90°F68°F48%1013.6 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX6 mi47 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F66°F50%1013.3 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX13 mi46 minSSE 510.00 miFair85°F69°F59%1014 hPa
Fort Worth Spinks Airport, TX14 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair84°F67°F58%1015.9 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX14 mi64 minSSE 410.00 miFair89°F62°F42%1015.6 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX15 mi46 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F66°F48%1013 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX17 mi46 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F64°F46%1013.6 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX23 mi46 minS 410.00 miFair89°F64°F43%1014 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX24 mi46 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F66°F44%1014.1 hPa

Wind History from FTW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6S5S8S11S11S12S10S10S8SW6SW4W63S4S8S11S85
1 day agoS6S5S6S10S12S10S9S8S6S12S8S10S11S9S12S3S10S10S9S7SE9SE7SE8SE7
2 days agoS9S10S10S10S12S12

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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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