Sunday, May19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
West Tawakoni, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 19, 2019 5:54 AM CDT (10:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:20PMMoonset 6:07AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Tawakoni, TX
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location: 32.81, -96     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 190812
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
312 am cdt Sun may 19 2019

Short term
Through tonight
all convection exited the area at midnight, accompanying the upper
trough axis eastward. In its wake, skies cleared, and the
lingering shallow boundary layer moisture has contributed to
widespread fog and low stratus encompassing the i-35 corridor.

Visibilities currently range from about 1-3 miles, with surface
wind speeds of 5-10 mph likely preventing this fog from becoming
more dense. Meanwhile, a weak cold front extending from a surface
low in iowa will slowly be pulled into the forecast area over the
next 12 hours. As winds weaken in advance of this weak
front trough, they may allow for a brief window around daybreak
where some dense fog could be more likely. Will continue to
monitor trends through the morning in case visibilities fall
further, necessitating a dense fog advisory. The shallow nature of
this fog stratus, along the the impinging post-frontal drier air,
should allow for a rather quick erosion after sunrise.

The aforementioned front will also gradually scour surface
dewpoints from northwest to southeast over the next few hours,
leading to a sharp moisture and temperature contrast to begin
this Sunday morning. Our northwestern zones will see temperatures
and dewpoints in the 50s, while our southeast maintains values in
the 70s. There won't be a noticeable temperature difference by
this afternoon however, as the entire forecast area will climb
into the 80s with a few readings near 90. Low level moisture and
evaporation of yesterday's rainfall may keep temperatures a couple
degrees cooler than guidance is adverting, but the humidity will
probably feel rather oppressive by may standards across our
southern and eastern zones.

This evening, winds will quickly swing back around to the east
following the weak front, causing the higher dewpoints to slosh
back across our entire forecast area overnight. A symptom of this
moisture recovery will likely be another round of widespread low
stratus or perhaps some fog again late tonight and early Monday
morning. Given the increased easterly southeasterly wind speeds of
10-15 mph, am thinking low stratus will be favored over fog, with
perhaps the exception of our far southeastern zones. The renewed
surface moisture and cloud cover will hold overnight lows on the
warmer side area-wide, with readings in the upper 60s and low


Long term
Monday through next weekend
an upper low over the desert southwest will work its way east
across arizona during the day Monday and into new mexico by late
afternoon, strengthening a lee surface cyclone over southeast
colorado. Low level southerly flow will increase across north and
central texas as a result, which will have helped drag a warm
front north of the red river by the start of the period. A warm
and muggy airmass will be in place on Monday across the region
with conditions becoming quite breezy by afternoon. Thunderstorms
may be ongoing north of the region during the day as a
disturbance ahead of the main upper low kicks off convection
along and north of the surface boundary. Will keep some low pops
along the red river in case the front is slower to lift north of
the area than expected. Otherwise, any Monday precipitation will
likely be limited to a few warm advection sprinkles.

The upper low will turn northeast across new mexico Monday
evening, reaching the oklahoma and texas panhandles Monday night.

Model projections continue to agree that this particular track of
the upper low will result in a distinctly negative tilt in the
flow aloft across the southern plains. The kinematic environment
will thus become ideal for rapid intensification of thunderstorms
after they fire along the dryline to our west and northwest
Monday evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (many severe)
should eventually merge into a convective complex late evening,
which will propagate eastward into the northwestern zones Monday
night. A potential of strong to severe convection will exist
during the overnight hours generally west of a line from sherman
to goldthwaite.

As the upper low races north, the stronger forcing will shift
north of the region while we approach sunrise on Tuesday, which
may cause convection to weaken as it crosses the interstate 35
corridor Tuesday morning. That said, broad cyclonic flow aloft
persisting within the long-wave pattern should keep plenty of
deep-layer shear in place, which will allow convection to re-
intensify as its outflow pushes into a moist and unstable airmass.

Hence the threat for strong to severe storms will continue east
of the i-35 corridor during the afternoon hours. Hail and damaging
winds would be the primary severe threats in all locations. In
addition, soil saturation from recent rains will likely make
localized flash flooding the more common occurrence.

Following the exit of precipitation Tuesday evening will be the
beginning of a duel between a strengthening ridge across the
southeast states and a deepening upper low over the southwest.

The ensuing pattern will place north and central texas just east
of any dryline convection initiated by ripples in the southwest
flow aloft. Will keep low pops across the northwest for most
afternoons in case the ridge is weak enough to allow storms to
enter the area. Otherwise it will be seasonably warm, humid and
mostly rain-free for the Wednesday through next weekend portion of
the forecast.


Aviation issued 1145 pm cdt Sat may 18 2019
06z tafs
ifr to lifr CIGS arrived a few hours early across north texas as
low level moisture made a quick comeback in the wake of the mid-
day storms. In some locations, fog has been reducing visibility to
around 2 miles, mainly across kafw and kftw. For waco, MVFR will
likely develop by 07z and persist through the mid-morning hours.

With continued low level moisture advection into the region,
ceiling restrictions are likely to continue through the night
before dissipating around sunrise Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon,VFR conditions will prevail with
southeasterly winds in place. There is a signal in the models that
another MVFR deck will develop early Monday morning, but given
it is still +24 hours away, confidence remains low. Will hint at
this possibility in the kdfw extended TAF for now, with
amendments expected in the future to refine timing and cloud


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 85 70 87 71 81 0 5 10 40 70
waco 89 72 88 72 84 5 5 5 20 60
paris 83 66 85 71 80 5 5 20 10 60
denton 84 68 86 69 81 0 10 20 40 70
mckinney 84 67 86 70 80 0 10 10 30 70
dallas 87 72 88 72 83 0 10 10 30 70
terrell 85 70 87 72 81 5 5 5 20 60
corsicana 87 73 88 73 83 5 5 5 10 60
temple 89 73 88 72 84 5 5 5 20 60
mineral wells 85 67 85 67 81 0 5 20 50 50

Fwd watches warnings advisories

30 26

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX16 mi61 minS 54.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1007.4 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX19 mi79 minSSW 65.00 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from TRL (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS9SE10S11S15S12S15
1 day agoSE5SE5S7S10S11S9S12S13S12SE14
2 days agoCalmS4S5S6S8S7S8SE13

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.