Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 2:18 AM   Moonset 1:14 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 021100 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Today Through Friday Morning/

Much of the ongoing activity will exit our area to the east by this afternoon. However, this window of quiet weather will be short-lived as our next round of dry line convection fires off once again to our west. This activity will also be supported by a passing shortwave aloft, which will provide more large-scale ascent. This could very well play out in a similar fashion to tonight's activity, with organizing clusters of thunderstorms pushing in across portions of Central Texas through this evening into the early morning hours on Friday. That being said, there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall coverage and extent of these thunderstorms as hi-res guidance has varying model solutions.

Of course the environment will still be supportive of thunderstorms across portions of North Texas as well, and severe weather will once again be in the deck. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, with a low-end tornado threat as well. Additional waves of heavy rainfall will likely continue the exacerbate flash flooding concerns across Central Texas as well, especially in areas that have already seen excessive rainfall totals upwards of 7 to 8 inches. Regarding this, even once the rain ends through the morning, flooding concerns will remain in place, with the Flood Watch currently set through 1 PM this afternoon. All of that being said, please continue to monitor the weather over the next 12 to 24 hours as our active stretch of mid-spring weather continues into the weekend.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/New/ /Issued 149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024/ /Friday through Wednesday/

Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the CWA Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could produce a shower or storm.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings and Thunderstorm Potential Tonight.

Quite a messy morning is in store for our TAF sites across the region. While much of the rain has pushed off to the east, additional development can be seen on radar. These mostly pose an issue for the Waco site, but there is a low chance for development of showers and thunderstorms across the D10 terminals. On top of this, MVFR ceilings will likely linger through much of the morning into the early afternoon hours. There is a low chance for IFR ceilings as well, and will be worth monitoring this morning.

Our attention turns to the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight hours. Overall confidence is quite low regarding the exact placement of thunderstorms, but will opt to include VCTS across the D10 terminals. This will continue to be refined through the day as confidence hopefully increases for more exact coverage.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 68 81 69 81 / 50 50 30 30 50 Waco 80 68 81 69 81 / 70 50 30 20 40 Paris 77 65 81 66 79 / 80 50 40 20 50 Denton 81 64 81 66 80 / 40 50 30 30 50 McKinney 79 66 81 67 80 / 60 50 40 30 50 Dallas 82 68 83 69 82 / 60 50 30 20 50 Terrell 79 66 81 67 81 / 70 50 40 20 50 Corsicana 81 69 83 69 82 / 80 50 40 20 40 Temple 81 69 81 69 81 / 60 40 30 20 30 Mineral Wells 84 65 82 66 82 / 30 50 30 30 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135- 142>148-156>162-174-175.

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