Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 4:26 AM   Moonset 5:54 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 061102 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update:

Not much has changed regarding today's conditional severe threat.
We still expect a stout capping inversion to stick around through this afternoon, inhibiting storm development across much of the region. Late this afternoon, dryline-driven convection is expected mainly to our north and will grow upscale as storms move east this evening. CAMs still have the bulk of this activity remaining north of the Red River, but a few storms still have the chance to develop further south if the cap breaks. We'll be watching the environment and any potential storm development closely this afternoon, so check back for new updates.

The previous discussion below remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion: /Today through Tuesday Afternoon/

An upper low that is currently moving through the southwestern CONUS will continue its trek eastward, eventually providing the upper support for our conditional storm chances later today.

The aforementioned shortwave will swing to the northeast, spreading increased forcing for ascent across the region. Once caveat is that forecast soundings show an 850mb capping inversion through this afternoon, which will inhibit convective initiation for much of the day. The occurrence of storms across our area today is conditional on the cap breaking. *IF* the cap is able to break due to strong afternoon heating, then isolated severe thunderstorms would be expected along and ahead of the dryline. Any storm that forms today across North Texas will have the potential to quickly become severe as the environment will be unstable with 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. The main threats for today will be large to very large hail and damaging winds. There is an attendant tornado threat, especially with the more discrete storms, but low level shear magnitude is marginal to keep this a more tertiary threat. Prior to the cap potentially breaking, we'll be watching for a few scattered warm advection-induced showers/storms out ahead of the dryline.

Overall, the severe threat for our area remains highest generally north of I-20, though Oklahoma has the greatest threat of the day. Nonetheless, if you are out and about today make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings this afternoon and evening if storms do impact your area as they will be able to become severe quickly.

The storm chances will come to an end by Tuesday morning as a cold front approaches North Texas. The cold front will move south and overtake the northern portion of the dryline early tomorrow as a secondary shortwave disturbance rounds the base of the main longwave trough. This front will make it into portions of North and Central Texas by the afternoon before stalling as the shortwave quickly ejects to the northeast. This front will not make too much change within our sensible weather, aside from scouring out some of the lower- level moisture behind it.
Afternoon temperatures are still expected to peak in the mid 80s to around 90.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 300 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024/ /Wednesday through Sunday/

Abnormal, but sub-record heat will continue to build on Wednesday as H850 temperature anomalies climb over North and Central Texas amidst low level downslope flow. Afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s in combination with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will yield maximum apparent temperatures nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas...particularly south of a Palestine to Waco to Lampasas line. The broad upper low anchored over the northern Plains will slowly eject into the Upper Midwest Wednesday while west-southwesterly mid-level flow prevails across the central CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough riding around the base of the main upper low will swing eastward from the central/southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Thursday inducing lee cyclogenesis over the southern Rockies.

Strong low-level moisture transport ahead of the trailing dryline/cold front will contribute to increasing buoyancy while mid-level lapse rates steepen, resulting in MLCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along these surface boundaries through the afternoon and evening as large-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave overspreads the region. The best storm chances will generally be along and east of I-35/35W, which is currently projected to be the approximate location of the dryline by the afternoon. With strong instability and 35-45+ knots of deep-layer effective shear, any thunderstorms that develop will likely be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Antecedent conditions also remain very wet given the recent period of heavy rainfall. This means runoff issues may rapidly re-emerge on Wednesday (and potentially Thursday), especially wherever higher convective rain rates occur.

After briefly stalling just south of I-20 Wednesday night, the cold front will continue to sag southward into Central TX on Thursday. Convective development will be possible ahead of the boundary, however confidence is low in the exact location and speed of the front. Additionally, storms may have to overcome some capping so the coverage of convection is likely to be lower until later in the afternoon. With this forecast update, PoPs have been increased/expanded slightly across Central Texas Thursday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with any storms that develop, though the better severe weather potential will likely exist just beyond our forecast domain given the projected FROPA timing.

The post-frontal airmass will be noticeably cooler with daytime temperatures in the mid 70s by the weekend as a surface high builds southward through the Plains. On Saturday, a large upper low will drop across the western Great Lakes sending a strong cold front plunging towards the Gulf coast. This is likely to bring shower/storm chances back to the region as soon as Saturday night.

12

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Stratus has overtaken all TAF sites this morning, though cig heights vary with FTW in IFR and DAL still lingering in VFR. All sites should teeter between MVFR and IFR through the morning before improving back to MVFR by mid-late afternoon. There remain chances for showers and storms this afternoon, but coverage is still too uncertain and sparse for inclusion into the TAF.
Southerly winds will increase in speeds to around 15 kts with occasional higher gusts at all TAF sites.

Another round of MVFR stratus is expected late tonight into tomorrow morning, but will be ushered out of D10 with the passage of a cold front around 15Z. Winds in D10 will shift westerly behind this front and clouds will clear out.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 71 88 72 89 / 20 10 0 5 20 Waco 83 71 87 71 88 / 20 10 0 0 20 Paris 81 69 86 69 86 / 20 30 5 5 40 Denton 82 66 86 69 88 / 20 20 0 5 20 McKinney 81 69 87 70 87 / 20 20 0 5 20 Dallas 83 71 89 72 90 / 20 10 0 5 20 Terrell 81 70 86 70 86 / 20 10 0 5 30 Corsicana 83 72 88 73 88 / 20 10 0 5 20 Temple 83 70 88 71 88 / 20 10 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 83 63 87 69 88 / 20 5 0 5 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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