Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Heath, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:19 PM CST (23:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heath, TX
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location: 32.87, -96.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 172115
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
315 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018

Short term
Tonight
a cold front continues to make slow and steady progress southward
through northwest texas and oklahoma this afternoon. Conditions
across north and central texas have been pleasant ahead of the
front with southerly winds and temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
but much cooler air will be on the doorstep by sunset. Subtle
pressure rises behind the surface boundary indicate that the front
isn't getting too much of a push for the time being, but it is
expected to pick up steam during the evening hours as daytime
mixing ahead of the boundary wanes. Will continue to lean toward
the faster side of guidance with regard to timing, which would
bring the boundary near a bowie-cisco line 8 to 9 pm, then
through the metroplex midnight to 2 am, then through the
southeastern counties 6 to 8 am Sunday. Scattered showers will
accompany the front with the highest rain chances occurring across
the northeastern counties where slightly better lift will take
place, but overall weak forcing and little to no instability will
preclude the threat of thunderstorms. Otherwise, tonight's lows
will range from the upper 30s in the northwest to the low 50s in
the southeast.

30

Long term
Sunday through Friday
periodic chances for rain are forecast on Sunday and again during
the mid-week time frame. Rain amounts look light at this time.

Temperatures in general will be below normal to start the long
term forecast period with some slight warming.

A sharp cold front continues to knife through south plains this
afternoon and will signal the end of the nice weather across north
and central texas. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a decent
chance for precipitation, mainly across east and central texas.

This seems plausible given that low level moisture---manifest in
the current CU field across these areas this afternoon---will be
sufficient. I've nudged pops upward into the likely category for
parts of central texas where surface dewpoints will continue to
increase ahead of the boundary. Despite the added low level
moisture, forecast instability still looks quite low, so i'll
abstain from the mention of any thunder at this time. The big
story on Sunday will be the much cooler conditions with most areas
seeing highs in the 40s to near 50. Blustery north winds will make
it feel a tad cooler with apparent t's in the 30s to mid 40s.

Continued isentropic upglide is anticipated across central texas
on Monday. I'll linger pops here as a result, with the highest
rain chances during the morning and early afternoon hours. It'll
remain cool for most locations on Monday, though temperatures may
be several degrees higher compared to Sunday as the CAA machine
shuts down. The exception to this may be across central texas
where denser cloud cover may persist resulting in highs in the low
50s. Tuesday looks dry as shortwave ridging moves overhead and
gives the area a respite from the precipitation. Temperatures
should climb to just below climatological values and i've kept
highs closer to MOS values given the plentiful sunshine.

The next shot of rain arrives on Wednesday as a compact upper
level wave translates eastward through the pacific southwest.

There remains some question about the degree of low level
moisture, but overall the model consensus is that enough should
return northward to warrant a decent chance for rain. The best
rain chances will be across central texas and the big country
where ascent and low level moisture will be collocated. The axis
of best rain chances will shift eastward quickly through the rest
of the day on Wednesday. Instability progs are a little better
across central texas and the big country, so i'll continue the
mention of isolated storms within the broader rain shield. With
the rain, high temperatures will likely remain in the 50s and
60s... With the coolest conditions southwest of a cisco to waco to
hearne line.

Thursday should be another dry day with temperatures moderating,
but remaining below normal values. Our attention will then turn
westward where model guidance has come into slightly better
agreement regarding the approach of the next upper trough. This
feature looks to be quite strong with 90 to 100 meter 12 hour
500mb height falls overspreading the southern plains. With limited
moisture and a bulk of the moisture expected to be of poor
quality (shallow in depth and generally not very rich), i'll keep
most areas rain-free on Friday. The exception will be across the
eastern red river valley where enough mid upper level forcing may
slide in across this area to support a few showers. Otherwise,
what should be a pacific front will induce downslope flow across
much of the area... Resulting in warm (highs in the upper 60s and
70s) and pleasant conditions. Another front may plow through the
area in the extended reaches of the forecast, but at this time,
uncertainty in timing and available moisture for precip is low.

Bain

Aviation issued 1204 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018
a cold front extends from southwest to northeast across west-
central texas and oklahoma and will be the primary weather focus
for this TAF cycle.

South winds andVFR conditions can be expected today ahead of the
boundary. The most recent set of hi-resolution model guidance has
trended faster with the southward push of the front, and the
current set of tafs indicates an earlier FROPA by 1 to 2 hours at
all locations. It looks like the front will reach afw by midnight
before pushing through the rest of the metroplex shortly after,
then reaching kact around 09z. The front will be accompanied by
northwest winds, a few showers and MVFR cigs. At this time, it
appears that weak lift and the lack of any appreciable instability
means little to no chances for thunder.

Ceilings will lift slowly Sunday morning as the frontal layer
deepens, withVFR conditions likely returning to all locations
early Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, northwest to north winds behind
the front will continue through Sunday evening.

30

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 46 46 38 57 40 40 20 5 5 0
waco 48 49 41 57 39 40 50 20 20 5
paris 49 49 36 55 38 50 30 5 5 0
denton 42 46 35 58 35 40 20 0 0 0
mckinney 45 46 36 55 37 50 20 5 5 0
dallas 47 47 38 57 42 40 30 5 5 0
terrell 49 50 38 57 40 50 40 10 10 0
corsicana 50 50 40 54 43 50 50 20 20 5
temple 48 48 42 55 39 40 50 40 30 10
mineral wells 40 46 34 58 35 30 10 5 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

30 24


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX10 mi29 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F48°F49%1017.6 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi26 minS 710.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F48°F53%1017.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX22 mi26 minS 9 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F48°F51%1016.7 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi32 minS 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F48°F52%1017.3 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX23 mi26 minS 1210.00 miFair66°F48°F52%1017.8 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX24 mi44 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F50°F53%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SE6S6SE4SE5S5S5S6S5S6SE5S5S4S5SE6S9SE7S7S11S13
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1 day agoSE6SE6SE5S5S6S5S6S6S6S6S4S4S6S5S5S5S5S5S7S6S9S11S10S9
2 days agoNW3CalmCalmCalmS3S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmS3S4S3S3S5S5S5S5SE5SE7S9S6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.