Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Heath, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:16PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:22 PM CST (23:22 UTC) Moonrise 7:43PMMoonset 7:59AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Heath, TX
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location: 32.87, -96.44     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 202117
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
317 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Short term
fairly benign weather tonight with mostly clear skies until around
day break when some mid and high level clouds will likely
overspread the area. Overnight temperatures will feel much warmer
than what we have experienced the last couple of nights with
overnight lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Also the air mass we
have in place now is much drier and winds will be out of the
southeast and east and fairly light so tonight should feel
relatively pleasant.

High pressure has moved in to north texas today which has led to
some good surface subsidence, light winds, and mostly clear skies.

Looking at visible and water vapor satellite imagery today there
are just some fair weather high cirrus clouds streaming north
texas. There is an upper level trof off the california coast that
is beginning to deepen and this trof is driving those high level
clouds in a large fetch from the baja peninsula northeastward into
texas. Models are all capturing this feature well when looking at
the 500mb rh field and models are in good agreement these clouds
will lift northwestward out of north central tx overnight as the
upper level trof out west continues to deepen southward.

The relatively cloud free skies will be fairly short lived
however. The upper level trof will continue to deepen and will
tap into additional pacific moisture. By 12z, models are showing a
return of considerable 500 mb rh moistening meaning mid and high
level clouds will return around day break. Winds will start off
tonight being light at variable as the center of the surface high
pressure will be on top of north tx. The high will rapidly move
eastward overnight though so winds will swing around to the south
and southeast by midnight and then easterly and southeastearly by
day break as the high continues to pull away to the east.


Long term
Thursday through Wednesday
mid level moisture rapidly increases during the day Thursday but
whether this results in rainfall over the CWA is more uncertain.

Model guidance contains a large spread in the QPF forecast with
the ECMWF being the wettest and the NAM and many hi-res guidance
mostly dry. All models do agree that there will be a layer of very
dry air near the surface that will need to be overcome in order
for measurable precipitation to occur. Given the lack of a strong
model consensus will keep pops in the middle of all guidance, but
do expect the good chances of measurable rain to be confined to
the southeastern zones where a bit of elevated instability should
be available for more convective elements. The rest of the area
will likely see lots of virga or sprinkles by the afternoon hours
which warrants a mention of a slight chance of showers.

Temperatures will be near or a little cooler than today's readings
due to more cloud cover and moisture. Low level moisture
advection will begin to ramp up after sunset as southerly low
level flow intensifies. This will yield low clouds and more light
showers or perhaps some drizzle overnight.

The warm moist advection pattern into the lingering cold airmass
should result in drizzle and fog during the day Friday with a
continued chance of light measurable rainfall. Meanwhile just
above the surface, theta-e values will increase and result in
elevated instability for more showers or possibly an isolated
storm. Large scale forcing for ascent will increase during the day
Friday and into the nighttime hours as a large and potent
negative tilted trough ejects out into the southern plains. For
Friday and Friday night we do prefer the NAM as it is slower to
erode the cold airmass at the surface and only shows elevated
instability for most of the area (except the far southeast zones)
through Saturday morning. While the kinematic profile will contain
a lot of wind shear, the lack of surface based instability will
help to temper the severe weather threat. Still, even in areas
where no surface instability exists, there's a low risk of
elevated strong storms containing marginally severe hail - mainly
along and east of the i-35 corridor. Across the far eastern and
southeastern zones, higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures may
yield a small amount of surface instability and support a wind or
possibly a brief tornado threat should a line organize before
exiting the CWA by mid morning Saturday.

A rapid west to east end of the rain storms will occur Saturday
morning with the passage of a pacific cold front. Very windy
westerly winds and much drier air is expected behind this front.

Rh and surface wind criteria should meet or exceed our standard
red flag warning criteria, however it is likely that high fuel
moisture from the generally wet winter we've had plus another
couple of days of drizzle or rain immediately preceding the
dry windy event means that critical fire weather conditions will
not occur. Highs on Saturday will be near normal as a battle
between strong subsidence and deep mixing working to warm
temperatures will be counteracted by moderate cold advection as
winds bend to a more northwesterly direction in the afternoon.

Finally these stronger westerly winds may present some crosswind
issues on north-south oriented runways midday Saturday.

Generally seasonable and nice weather is expected Sunday and
Monday, but it appears that with the fast zonal flow aloft another
impulse will bring return flow to the region by Tuesday. This
should yield clouds and possibly low rain chances to parts of the
area, but temperatures will remain near normal.


Aviation issued 1217 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019
18z tafs
vfr conditions are expected to persist for all TAF sites through
Thursday morning. The only potential concern will be possible low
clouds creeping in Thursday afternoon towards the end of the
period (around 18z for kact and 21z for kdfw area sites).

Clouds rapidly cleared out this morning as the cold front moved
eastward into louisiana. In the wake of the front, a weak surface high
is now over north texas which has resulted in low level drying.

Off to the west, an upper level trof is beginning to deepen off
the california coast and a long fetch of mid and upper level
clouds is streaming from the baja peninsula into texas.

The high will move rapidly off to the east by this evening which
will swing the winds around to the south and southeast by 00z. By
Thursday morning, a weak surface low is progged to form in the
western gulf which will steer the winds more easterly by 12z. This
surface low will also pump gulf moisture northward and mid and
low level clouds will be on the increase at kact by 15z. It is
possible that by 15z-18z Thursday some low ceilings will begin to
creep into kact but since that is the end of this TAF period i
opted to keep that out of the forecast for now. Similarly, it is
possible that low ceilings begin to creep into dfw area tafs by
21z-00z Thursday as the low level moisture surges northward but
again I opted to leave it out for now.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 41 55 45 55 52 0 20 30 60 70
waco 39 56 47 59 56 0 30 40 70 80
paris 37 52 43 52 52 0 40 50 60 80
denton 37 54 43 53 50 0 20 30 60 70
mckinney 36 53 44 53 52 0 20 30 60 80
dallas 40 55 46 55 53 0 30 30 70 80
terrell 37 55 45 56 55 0 30 40 70 80
corsicana 40 53 46 57 57 0 40 40 70 80
temple 38 56 48 59 55 0 30 40 70 80
mineral wells 37 55 42 55 48 0 20 20 60 70

Fwd watches warnings advisories

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mesquite, Mesquite Metro Airport, TX10 mi33 minSE 910.00 miFair54°F39°F58%1013.9 hPa
Terrell, Terrell Municipal Airport, TX14 mi30 minSSE 510.00 miFair55°F34°F45%1014.1 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi36 minSSE 610.00 miClear57°F30°F36%1013.5 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX22 mi30 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F36°F45%1013.2 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX23 mi30 minSE 810.00 miFair54°F36°F51%1014.4 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX24 mi53 minSSE 610.00 miFair55°F37°F51%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from HQZ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN8N7N3N5N5NW5NW3NW3NW4W7W10NW12NW9W10W5W4CalmSW6S6SW8SW5S6SE5SE9
1 day agoN9
2 days agoN6N6N6N5N6NE3N4N6N7NE7N5N7N10N9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.