Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 12:59 AM   Moonset 10:56 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS64 KFWD 300846 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 346 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 122 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ /Through Wednesday Morning/

A quiet but humid night is underway for North and Central Texas as dew points linger in the mid to upper 60s across the region. An additional surge of moisture from the southeast will result in increasing cloud cover through Tuesday morning as low-level clouds fill in across the region. Along with this is the low end potential for patchy warm-air advection fog, mainly across Central Texas. This window for patchy fog will be relatively brief into the morning hours as skies gradually clear and daytime mixing resumes. Overnight lows will remain mild through the morning as well, generally bottoming out in the low to mid 60s.

This surge of moisture through Tuesday will result in a sharpening moisture gradient along the dry line that will be located off to our west on Tuesday afternoon. As this occurs, daytime heating coupled with clearing skies and southerly winds will lead to afternoon highs rising into the mid to upper 80s across the region, with a few locations in our westernmost counties approaching the 90 degree mark. While the environment will be conducive for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across our northwestern counties, the question regarding how far east convection propagates remains. The lack of large-scale forcing for ascent also lessens confidence in the spatial extent of thunderstorm activity through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The latest hi-res guidance continues the trend of convection reaching our northwestern counties by around midnight Wednesday before quickly dissipating. All of this being said, any thunderstorms will be capable of becoming severe should they make it this far east. The main threat would be large hail with lower potential for a damaging wind threat, but this potential will remain quite isolated with limited coverage.

Cloud cover will be increasing once again across North and Central Texas overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. As a result, overnight lows on Wednesday will be warmer, ranging in the mid to upper 60s and low 70s across much of the region.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/

We will be in the open warm sector of a deepening leeside low near the OK/TX Panhandles Wednesday. A north moving cluster of showers is expected to develop over the Texas Coastal Plains in the late morning/early afternoon. Diurnal heating may (40-50% chance) erode the cap, allowing for scattered storms to move into Central Texas in the afternoon. Weak deep-layer shear should limit the ability for the storms to organize, but moderate instability and steep mid-level lapse rates support the potential for a few storms to produce small to marginally severe hail. It's worth noting that the low-level shear has a favorable directional profile, but weak magnitude. If the wind speeds come in stronger (i.e. the low to our west deepens more than we expect), the severe threat would consequently increase.

Meanwhile, a dry line will sharpen over West Texas and serve as a trigger for convective initiation well to our west Wednesday afternoon. A shortwave trough will also move over the Southern Plains Wednesday evening and Thursday and support additional storms well ahead of the dryline Wednesday night. The shortwave will marginally increase the deep-layer shear and threat of severe hail, but not much. Widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a gradual west to east movement. Heavy rain will likely accompany this activity. Given the already saturated soils, it will not take much more rain to cause flooding.

A lull in convective activity is expected Thursday as the storms move into East Texas before additional storms develop along a cold front late in the day. These storms should move into our area late Thursday into Friday morning. How well the atmosphere rebounds ahead of the front will largely determine the severe threat with this activity. The front will then waver through the weekend into early next week. There are significant differences in the deterministic guidance regarding the placement of the front. Some have it lingering nearby while others drive it all the way into the Northern Plains. Either way, daily storms chances are in the forecast through the weekend...with higher chances Sunday when a shortwave trough moves through.

Ensemble trends are indicating the development of a stronger mid- level ridge over the Gulf Coast in the middle and late parts of next week. This would result in a warming trend with highs in the 90s more likely than not--most locations have a 50-70% chance from Tuesday onward--next week...and since the moisture will not be significantly scoured, heat index values in the upper 90s are possible 7-10 days from now. Welcome to May.

Bonnette

AVIATION
/Issued 122 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024/ /06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings Through Early Tuesday Morning.

Light southeasterly winds will gradually become southerly through the overnight hours into early Tuesday morning. Increasing moisture will lead to areas of patchy fog, mainly across Central Texas. There is a low chance for minor visibility restrictions across Waco and the D10 terminals through the morning hours.
Along with this will be an increase in low-level cloud cover through Tuesday morning as stratus creeps northward. Ceilings will generally dip down to MVFR across North and Central Texas, with potential for IFR ceilings at Waco. Conditions regarding visibility and ceilings will quickly improve as we move through Tuesday morning as turbulent mixing resumes after daybreak.

Reeves


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 70 83 69 81 / 0 5 30 60 80 Waco 84 69 82 69 80 / 5 0 40 60 70 Paris 85 65 83 67 76 / 0 5 30 50 90 Denton 85 68 82 68 80 / 0 5 30 60 80 McKinney 85 68 82 68 79 / 0 5 30 60 80 Dallas 87 70 84 69 81 / 0 5 30 60 80 Terrell 85 67 83 67 79 / 0 5 30 60 90 Corsicana 86 69 84 70 80 / 5 0 40 60 80 Temple 84 69 82 69 81 / 5 0 40 60 70 Mineral Wells 87 68 83 67 84 / 5 10 30 70 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,