Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 1:13 PM   Moonset 1:54 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

FXUS64 KFWD 162000 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ /Through Friday afternoon/

The main story this afternoon will be the threat for severe weather and flooding mainly across the Central Texas counties as a cluster of storms continues to move south. Latest satellite/radar imagery show multiple clusters moving across the southern central counties where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 5 pm. The main threats will be large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. Additionally, periods of heavy rainfall and/or training storms are expected resulting in instances of flash flooding especially in low-lying areas and near creeks and streams.

Behind this complex, light to moderate showers and storms will continue to impact portions of North Texas with occasional lightning strikes and pockets of heavy rain. Some of these storms may contain small hail, but the atmosphere should be fairly stable to limit this threat. Latest guidance show the bulk of the precipitation should be east/south of our area by 6-7 pm, but a few isolated/scattered storms may track across Central Texas and along the Red River through midnight. Otherwise, cloudy conditions are expected overnight with the potential for fog early Friday morning. Light winds and abundant moisture should support at least patchy fog across portions of the region.

One last round of scattered showers/storms are possible Friday afternoon as the upper level trough finally progresses eastward.
Areas along the Red River will have the best potential (30-40% PoPs) but areas as far south as the I-20 corridor could still see some of this activity. Skies should slowly clear in the afternoon with light northerly winds expected. Afternoon highs will stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sanchez

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/

Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning.
Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for areas along and south of I-20.

The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on Tuesday.

The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday.
Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third shortwave moves east across the forecast area.

Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient levels of instability (which will be in good supply each afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing, location, and the specific severe weather threats as better resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 135 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Expect poor flying conditions to continue through Friday morning due to isolated/scattered storms this afternoon and the return of low ceilings/vsby late tonight. While most of the widespread showers and storms have moved towards Central Texas, a few isolated storms will continue through the afternoon with occasional lightning. The rest of the evening should remain fairly quiet, but MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities will develop overnight given the abundant moisture and light and variable winds expected. Conditions should improve by mid-morning as skies begin to clear/scatter out. Otherwise, winds will remain from the east/southeast through the evening before they become light/variable tonight with northerly winds most of the day.

Sanchez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 81 66 89 69 / 50 20 10 0 0 Waco 65 82 65 87 69 / 50 5 10 5 0 Paris 63 79 63 85 65 / 60 50 20 5 0 Denton 62 80 62 88 66 / 50 30 10 0 0 McKinney 63 79 63 87 66 / 50 30 20 5 0 Dallas 65 82 66 89 69 / 40 20 10 5 0 Terrell 63 80 64 87 66 / 50 10 20 5 0 Corsicana 65 81 66 88 69 / 50 10 10 5 0 Temple 64 83 64 88 67 / 40 5 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 63 80 62 89 67 / 50 20 10 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ101>104-116>122- 130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,