Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hanahan, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:06PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:57 PM EST (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1025 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Overnight..SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 56 degrees.
AMZ300 1025 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. SEveral frontal systems will affect the area beginning Saturday and continuing through much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanahan, SC
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location: 32.91, -79.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 160327
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1027 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
Several frontal systems will affect the area beginning Saturday
and continuing through much of next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 1025 pm: kclx detected a solid area of light rainfall
across the sc lowcountry. I will update the forecast to increase
pops across the inland sc counties and increase values south
along the sc coast.

As of 905 pm: nam12 indicates that rounds of isentropic lift
between 295-305k will pass over the forecast area through the
overnight hours. In addition, satellite water vapor indicate
rising pw values this evening. The combination of the increasing
moisture and forcing should result in a increase of showers
through the overnight night hours into early Saturday. Kclx
detected a patch of light rain spreading across the mid-savannah
river valley, tracking toward the sc lowcountry. I will indicate
rising pops through the overnight hours. In addition, I will
spread light QPF south across the northern half of the forecast
area.

As of 7 pm: I will update the forecast to increase sky cover
across the region. Llvl lift and moisture should continue to
increase through the rest of this evening, supporting a few
showers across the northern forecast area.

Previous discussion:
deeper moisture and forcing for ascent from mid-level shortwave
energy and the upper jet will spread eastward into the
carolinas ahead of developing surface low pressure overnight
which should be situated near charlotte near daybreak. Although
a few sprinkles are possible for the next several hours, it
looks like measurable rain chances will pick up later this
evening, highest closer to the pee dee midlands csra. Rainfall
amounts up to around a tenth of an inch are possible.

Temperatures should not drop much overnight given the clouds and
southwest winds staying above normal in the mid 50s most
locales.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Saturday: a mid-level short wave and attendant surface low is
forecast to track across the carolinas. Wet weather may be
ongoing along our northern tier of sc zones prior to mid morning
as upper forcing and deeper moisture below 500 mb extends from
the sc pee dee region to the santee cooper lakes. By afternoon
the potential for measurable rains will decrease over sc zones.

Across southeast ga, we mainly have only slight chance pops for
spotty showers throughout the day. Our entire region will be in
the warm sector, however most areas can expect considerable clouds.

Temps should reach the 70s earlier to the south of i-16. While a few
locations in the charleston area may struggle to reach 70, the
pattern does favor some breaks in the clouds during the afternoon
and we made very few changes to persistence.

Saturday night and Sunday: the cold front will backdoor into the
sc forecast area Saturday night, before stalling across our ga zones
Sunday morning. The front is then expected to waver northward later
on Sunday but it's progress is quite uncertain as rains from north
ga to the western carolinas look set to anchor a decent inland wedge.

There is pretty good model agreement that rains only brush far
inland areas of the forecast area at best with dry weather for much
of the day along coastal areas. The temperature gradient should be
very large from northwest to southeast given the wedge warm sector
alignments. We could see highs not far from 60 degrees far north
around northern berkeley county to upper 70s to the south of i-16 in
ga to the south of the front.

Monday: another cold front approach early in the day and likely
push offshore by the afternoon hours. We capped rain chances in
the chance categories as moisture transport decreases rather
quickly. Temps will once again be above climo with readings in
the lower to mid 70s for highs, especially after low level flow
becomes more downslope in the afternoon.

Long term Monday night through Friday
A warm front will develop Tuesday and then lift north of the area by
Wednesday. Ample moisture and lift along the front should produce
widespread rain during this period. Continued upper level
disturbances will maintain at least chance pops into late week.

Aside from a slight cool down on Tuesday, temps will be much above
normal.

Aviation 04z Saturday through Wednesday
Sfc low pressure is forecast to track across northern ga sc
during the early daylight hours Saturday. In the wake of the
low, high pressure will surge southward across the forecast
area, likely just after 0z Sunday. SW winds should remain steady
through the forecast period, with late afternoon gusts possible
at kchs. Showers may pass over kchs during the middle of the
day, with a period or two of MVFR vis.

Extended aviation outlook: a low risk of restrictions from low
clouds Saturday. Periods of flight restrictions likely Saturday
night into early Monday and then again on Tuesday as periodic
low clouds fog rains affect the area.

Marine
Tonight: a cold front will approach from the west with winds
becoming solidly southwest around 10-15 kt with some higher
gusts near the gulf stream. Seas should mainly be 2-3 feet, with
a gradual increase overnight up to 4 feet near the gulf stream.

Saturday: southwest synoptic flow will prevail with speeds mainly
below 20 kt over cooler shelf waters. Beyond 20 nm off the coast,
speeds will be higher and a SCA is possible over outer ga waters
with lesser chances beyond the pilot buoy off the charleston county
coast. Seas will average 3-4 ft near shore and up to 5 ft well off
the ga coast.

Sunday and Monday: a quasi-stationary front will waver through the
waters. Wind directions will vary dependent on the frontal position
with latest guidance suggesting a southerly component will shift
north sometime on Monday. This pattern with a weak pressure gradient
suggest wind speeds below SCA criteria and seas in the 2 to 3 ft
range near shore and up to 4 ft near the gulf stream.

Tuesday and Wednesday: a complex pattern will persist with onshore
flow tending to strengthen on Tuesday prior to a mid week warm front
passage. Confidence on these features remain low at this time.

Sea fog: we cannot rule out patchy sea fog advecting north through
the waters Sunday into early Monday but better chances may setup
toward mid week when surface dew points appear to be even greater
in the wake of the warm front.

Tides coastal flooding
The upcoming lunar perigee and full moon will result in
elevated tide levels beginning early next week. Shallow coastal
flooding may be possible in downtown charleston near the time of
high tide Sunday morning.Otherwise, better chances along the
southeast south carolina and southeast georgia coast Tuesday and
Wednesday, primarily with the morning high tide cycle.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Ned
short term...

long term... Jrl
aviation... Ned rjb
marine... Rjb
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 9 mi57 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 57°F1012.7 hPa (+0.9)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 16 mi57 min SW 6 G 8.9 58°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.9)51°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 18 mi49 min WSW 9.7 G 14 58°F 56°F1013.1 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 36 mi72 min Calm 58°F 1013 hPa53°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 50 mi72 min WSW 6 60°F 1011 hPa49°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC5 mi2 hrsWSW 510.00 miOvercast60°F46°F60%1012.1 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC8 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair59°F50°F72%1012.2 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC15 mi62 minSSW 57.00 miA Few Clouds59°F51°F77%1012.9 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC20 mi62 minSSW 310.00 miLight Rain57°F51°F82%1012.5 hPa
Summerville Airport, SC21 mi62 minN 010.00 miDrizzle59°F50°F72%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmS5SW4W3S4W4W4W4CalmSW4W4SW8SW12S13SW11SW9SW12SW7S8SW8SW6SW5SW5
1 day agoW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE7SE8SE9SE9SE8S10SE6SE4SE7E5SE4Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Clouter Creek, north entrance, Cooper River, South Carolina
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Clouter Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:21 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:28 AM EST     5.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:47 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST     4.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:00 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.84.15.15.65.54.93.82.61.50.70.50.91.933.94.54.74.33.42.31.10.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:29 AM EST     1.68 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EST     -2.18 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:48 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:59 PM EST     1.38 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:26 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:04 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:58 PM EST     -2.10 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.61.20.80.2-0.6-1.4-2-2.2-1.6-0.80.211.41.10.70.3-0.4-1.2-1.8-2.1-1.8-0.90.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.