Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:49 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 290012 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 712 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening through Tuesday Morning/

As of early this evening, the majority of activity has exited our region aside from scattered storms across eastern Central Texas, and rogue storms in North Texas. Overall, the severe threat has greatly diminished as we near the close of our multi-day weather event. Lingering showers and storms in our southeast will eventually exit closer to midnight tonight, bringing rain chances to an end. Through the rest of tonight, expect light and variable winds and continued clearing skies. In response to primed, moist soils, we expect a bank of patchy radiation fog across most of the forecast area to blossom just after midnight. Expect lowered visibilities to impact your commute through mid-morning, with some areas becoming dense. If you find yourself within dense fog, make sure to slow down, use your fog lights, and give yourself plenty of time to get to your destination!

By Monday afternoon, any patchy fog should erode and leave behind mostly clear skies through the rest of the day. There is potential for clouds to linger a bit longer due to easterly winds at the surface and low-levels and their accompanying upslope component, but this is still uncertain and something to watch out for tomorrow. Otherwise, expect a nice afternoon with some mid-level cloud cover as the base of an upper level longwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. High temperatures for the day will peak in the 80s region-wide for a nice end-of-April day.

A quiet night is expected tomorrow night as lee surface cyclogenesis to our northwest shifts winds back to the south.
Overnight lows will bottom out in the 60s. Another round of patchy fog is possible, but this time will be advection-induced.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 259 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/ /Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

Convection has ended at all TAF sites, aside from a storm west of D10 as of 00Z. There is still uncertainty on if this will keep shape long enough to make it to the D10 sites, so we will continue to watch over the next couple of hours and make adjustments as necessary.

South-to-southeasterly winds will become light and variable tonight. Coupled with a primed environment, patchy, sometimes dense, mist/fog is expected over the TAF sites just after midnight. The best chances for both LIFR surface and vertical visibilities/cigs and will be 11-15Z for D10 and 10-14Z for ACT.
There is a TEMPO in place for now, but these lowered vis/cigs could end up being prevailed if a more substantial fog bank occurs.

Lingering mist/fog should erode by mid tomorrow morning, with east-southeast winds below 10 kts through the end of the period.

Prater


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 85 65 85 70 / 5 0 0 5 20 Waco 64 83 63 83 69 / 10 0 0 10 10 Paris 62 81 60 83 66 / 60 0 0 10 10 Denton 61 83 63 84 67 / 5 0 0 5 30 McKinney 63 83 62 83 68 / 10 0 0 10 20 Dallas 64 85 64 85 69 / 5 0 0 10 20 Terrell 63 82 61 84 68 / 40 0 0 10 10 Corsicana 65 84 64 85 69 / 50 0 0 20 10 Temple 65 85 64 84 69 / 10 0 0 20 10 Mineral Wells 58 86 63 86 68 / 0 0 0 10 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-104>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-159>162-174-175.

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