Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday September 21, 2017 1:54 AM CDT (06:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:36AMMoonset 7:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 210445 aac
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1145 pm cdt Wed sep 20 2017

Aviation
06 utc TAF cycle
concerns---timing of MVFR CIGS at all north and central tx taf
sites.

For the metroplex TAF sites---the primary challenges will be the
timing of MVFR stratus, should it occur. At this time, however,
confidence remains reasonably high enough to advertise MVFR
stratus arriving between 12 and 13 utc at metroplex TAF sites.

Some guidance does suggest that ifr CIGS are possible, but at this
time, this seems unlikely. It appears that the initial surge of
moisture will be highest across western and southern metroplex
tafs initially before spreading eastward with the veering low
level jet. For now, confidence in the exact details are too low to
add specific times of arrivals at various TAF sites. At this
time, think that stratus below fl020 will be intermittent due to
the shallow nature of the moist plume and I have elected to show
these CIGS as temporary conditions between 13 and 16 utc. MVFR
stratus may linger a bit longer at dal and gky as the low level
jet should veer and continue to pump moisture northward here. By
17 utc, all TAF sites should beVFR with just some ragged low
level stratus lingering. Southerly winds will increase yet again
tomorrow, with sustained wind speeds approaching 20 knots. Gusts
to 25 knots appear possible as well. The threat for convection
should be low as large scale forcing for ascent remains weak.

There will likely be another stratus intrusion Friday morning, but
at this time, it appears as if it will occur even outside of the
extended portion of the 30-hour d fw taf.

For the waco TAF site---MVFR CIGS around fl025 should arrive
closer to 10 utc with a quick drop to CIGS around fl015 shortly
thereafter. Some guidance does indicate ifr CIGS are possible, but
believe that surface winds, combined with the shallow nature of
the moisture precludes mentioning this in the taf.VFR should
return late in the morning with increasingly southerly breezes.

Sustained southerly winds will range between 15 and 20 knots with
some gusts nearing 25 knots. The potential for convection at waco
appears too low to warrant inclusion in the TAF at this time and
the better potential appears to be to the southeast. There will
likely be another round of MVFR stratus on Friday morning beyond
the scope of the current waco taf.

24-bain

Update issued 1022 pm cdt Wed sep 20 2017
the main update was to clean up pop, wx, sky and t grids.

Otherwise, the remainder of the short-term forecast looks to be in
good shape.

Convection has decayed very quickly this evening. While the 00
utc fwd RAOB sampled a very unstable atmosphere, convection has
decayed rapidly, likely due to not only the loss of daytime
heating, but more importantly the lack of any deep layer shear.

With the area being on the upstream side of weak shortwave
troughing, it's unlikely that additional nocturnal convection will
develop across north and or central tx. The exception could be
along any residual outflow boundaries, however.

For the update, i've adjusted wx grids and trimmed pops back down
to the 15 to 20 percent range. In addition, i've confined the
mention of isot back towards western zones. Previous convection
has cast a large cirrus canopy across the western half of the area
and this cirrus should slowly drift eastward and gradually thin.

Another round of low clouds is expected, however, late tonight and
into the early morning hours on Thursday across the eastern two-
thirds of the area. I've adjusted sky grids to reflect this
thinking. Outside of modifying hourly t's to account for
thunderstorm outflow, the rest of the forecast remains unchanged.

Updated products have been transmitted.

24-bain

Short term issued 330 pm cdt Wed sep 20 2017
tonight
we continue to see a cold front overtaking the surface trough
dryline from south of vernon, to snyder, to near lubbock this
afternoon. The cold front has shown signs of slowing the past few
hours due to the intense heating with temperatures into the mid-
upper 90s out ahead of this feature. The only difference from this
time yesterday is the subtle shortwave disturbance is much further
east with subsidence over the potential convective initiation
area late this afternoon and evening. Even so, surface convergence
should be able to initiate widely scattered tstorms along this
boundary just w-nw of our western counties by early evening. The
subsidence should result in less convective coverage, but with the
strong lapse rates both below cloud base and aloft, along with
highs out that way near the century mark, cold pool propagation of
any storms that do develop is likely.

Now, depending on what model you choose, we'll either see a few
strong to severe storms develop just NW of our CWA (ttu & nssl
wrf), then cold pool into our W NW counties well west of i-35 35w,
or see not much development at all with any storms quickly
dissipating by nightfall (hrrrx and 3km namnest). Knowing the
superiority of the WRF models in this type of 'conditional'
development situation and their ability to cold pool activity ese
past nightfall, have learned toward these models for tonight's
convective forecast. Though coverage should be less, there are
enough signs from the ttu and nssl WRF models to push slight
chances to just west of the i-35w corridor and north of i-20. I
did not bring the slight chances quite that far east, but this is
something our evening crew will have to monitor with any convective
development and cold pool propagation. A few strong, to even
brief severe storms are possible considering the thermodynamic
environment noted beforehand.

Otherwise, I have lingered slight chances across the far sw
counties for the overnight in anticipation an old outflow boundary
could linger across that area. Otherwise, we anticipate
occasionally gusty south winds near 15 mph overnight and another
surge of stratus overnight, especially for areas along and E of
i-35. The combination of both, along with high dew points will
result in yet another summer-like, breezy, and humid night. Now
temperatures could get cooled off more if storms do develop and
affect parts of the western cwa, but right now this is too
conditional at this point to adjust low temperatures currently in
the 70s down across those western counties.

05

Long term issued 330 pm cdt Wed sep 20 2017
Thursday through Wednesday
with the primary 500 mb ridge axis positioned well off to our
north and east on Thursday, the mid-level flow will remain fairly
weak and chaotic. There is a small potential that (much like this
morning), that some weak elevated convection may be ongoing
Thursday morning across our far northwestern zones within a mid-
level moist-axis centered around 600 mb or so. That said, any
subtle forcing of significance looks to remain just north of the
red river, and will maintain a dry forecast here through the
morning hours. As temperatures warm into the 90s during the late-
morning early-afternoon hours, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop within an axis of greatest
moisture across the southeastern third of the cwa. There are also
some hints that an additional subtle wave aloft (most evident in
this morning's run of the ecmwf) may impinge upon our northwestern
counties, and feel that this warrants an introduction of low
(20%) pops during the afternoon given the warm temperatures and
sufficient moisture. Soundings here look somewhat subsident just
under 500 mb, and this should help limit any coverage to just
isolated across this portion of the forecast area. Weak flow on
Thursday should preclude a severe threat, but some strong wind
gusts will be possible with any of the more robust convection
during the afternoon.

Very little change to the pertinent large-scale weather features
is forecast across the region by Friday and Saturday, although
mid-level heights should rise a bit in response to deepening
troughing across the great basin. The lack of notable forcing
mechanisms, in concert with slightly drier air overall, support
the continuation of a dry forecast through the upcoming weekend
for the time being. A rogue shower or two cannot be ruled out,
but this potential is simply too low to warrant an explicit
mention in the worded forecast at this point.

Big changes are on the horizon next week, however, as the
aformentioned troughing to our west finally begins to migrate
north and eastward, which should help send a cold front towards
the red river sometime during the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe.

Recent runs of the GFS and cmc remain the most aggressive with
this front and attendant precipitation chances, delivering fairly
widespread showers storms to the area by Monday night Tuesday
morning. The associated ensemble guidance (gefs geps) on the other
hand, support a slightly slower solution, more in line with the
recent ecmwf. Given the degree of troughing present to our west
and the potential for shortwave energy to take a bit more time
digging into the base of the trough axis, this forecast will side
a bit more with the slower ecmwf, with the greatest precipitation
chances occurring on Tuesday and Wednesday. Given improving model
support, we have bumped pops up as well during this time frame.

The best kinematics look to lag the front for the most part, which
should limit the severe weather potential. Copious moisture,
however, spells a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall with
this incoming front as several waves of upper-level ascent will
zip across the region during this time frame.

Carlaw

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 77 95 75 93 74 10 10 10 5 0
waco 76 94 73 93 71 10 20 20 5 5
paris 74 92 71 92 71 10 10 5 5 5
denton 76 95 74 92 72 10 10 10 5 0
mckinney 76 94 73 92 72 10 10 10 5 0
dallas 78 95 76 93 75 10 10 10 5 0
terrell 74 94 72 93 71 10 10 10 5 0
corsicana 75 93 72 93 72 10 20 20 5 5
temple 75 93 72 91 70 10 20 20 10 5
mineral wells 75 95 72 92 70 10 20 20 5 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

24 79


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi3 hrsSSE 12 G 2110.00 miFair88°F69°F54%1010.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi61 minSSE 1110.00 miFair85°F71°F63%1010.7 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi61 minSSE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F70°F65%1009.9 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi79 minSSE 810.00 miFair83°F69°F64%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S15
G20
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G24
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1 day agoS7S8S8S8S8S10S9S12S11S13S11--S15
G23
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G23
S13S8N13E8S10S12
2 days agoSW3NW4NW5CalmCalmCalmNW3E43N4CalmCalm4SE6S9S5S7S7SE5S5SE4S12
G20
SE9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.