Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:50PM Thursday March 30, 2017 5:52 AM CDT (10:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 9:54PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 300852
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
352 am cdt Thu mar 30 2017

Discussion
A front has made its way through the region and a pleasant spring
day is in store. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 60s in the
northeast to mid and upper 70s in the west and south. The skies
across nearly all the region will be sunny today, but some clouds
are likely to linger in our northeast counties. The upper level
low that played a role in our severe weather event last night is
currently located in eastern kansas and will continue moving east
today. Upper level ridging will move across the plains on Friday,
and afternoon highs will be significantly warmer in the 80s, with
near 90 degrees in our western counties. Our next chance for rain
is Saturday through Sunday as another upper level system affects
the plains.

The cold front that moved through the region tonight is expected
to push deep into the gulf of mexico and as far south as the bay
of campeche. South flow will return across the region on Friday in
response to a surface high shifting east of the region and lee
side cyclogenesis ahead of the next upper level trough. Breezy
south winds of 10-20 mph on Friday will help to return some low-
level moisture back into the region with better moisture return
occurring Friday night and Saturday. However, the models are
split on how fast and deep the moisture return will be. The nam
and GFS are the fastest with the moisture return, spreading 60+
dewpoints across the region late Friday and Friday night, but
sounding analysis shows this layer to be very shallow. The timing
of the canadian is slightly behind these two models, and the
ecwmf is significantly more conservative with the moisture return.

Unfortunately, most of the high-resolution guidance don't extend
too far into Friday to provide any additional help at this time.

With the front expected to push far south into the gulf,
monitoring the moisture return will be important as it could have
implications on Saturday's rain chances.

Differences between the moisture return along with other
differences between the models are making the forecast for
Saturday into Sunday challenging. Because of this, have kept the
pops a little more on the conservative side over the weekend.

Most models agree there will be rain in the region during this
time, but the evolution of rain and storms remains somewhat
uncertain at this time. Two of the noticeable differences are in
the timing of the upper level trough and the track. The GFS and
nam are the fastest with the speed of the trough but the NAM is
currently farther north with its position of the closed low;
however this is at the very end of its 00z run (hour 84). With the
upper level trough spreading height falls across the state on
Saturday, and possibly some embedded impulses tracking ahead of
the upper level low, there's a chance showers and thunderstorms
may occur across the region during the day on Saturday. However,
if the upper level trough is farther west as the ECMWF suggests or
possibly tracking farther north as the NAM suggest, our rain
chances may decrease during the day. Depending on when the better
dynamics arrive on Saturday, we should see an increase in
thunderstorm activity along a dryline to our west and potentially
east of the dryline where better low level flow will be shifting
east. Strong or severe storms may be possible Saturday and
Saturday night with MUCAPE values of 1500-2500 j/kg and shear
values over 40 kts. Most soundings indicate tall, skinny CAPE with
weaker lapse rates which would suggest primarily a damaging wind
threat. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out at this time, but we
will further refine the threats as we receive more hi-res model
runs and hopefully better model consistency.

As the upper level trough continues moving east into Sunday, a
front will move across the region. Model differences regarding
the timing of the front and other surface features will hopefully
be ironed out as the weekend approaches, but widespread rain is
expected to develop ahead of the front as large scale lift from
the upper level trough continues across the eastern half of the
state. The highest rain chances remain mainly across the southern
half of the cwa. It does not appear much of a severe weather
threat will exist on Sunday as the front moves through the region,
but again this is an uncertainty we will continue to watch. Heavy
rain causing minor flooding issues may be the main hazard on
Sunday.

Some wrap around showers or thunderstorms may occur on Monday but
Tuesday is expected to be dry. Another front will pass through the
region on Tuesday night, and there are low chances for rain along
it. The models vary on the track of the upper level trough
associated with this front and therefore have kept rain chances
low for now. Dry weather will likely ensue for the remainder of
next week as upper level ridging moves across the plains.

Jldunn

Aviation
/issued 1145 pm cdt Wed mar 29 2017/
06 utc TAF cycle
concerns---minor crosswinds on north-south oriented runways.

Otherwise,VFR with south flow late in the TAF cycle.

Vfr will continue through the entire 06 utc TAF cycle as an upper
level low slowly pulls away from the region. Low level moisture
beneath this feature will pivot around and may graze the metroplex
taf sites through the overnight hours into Thursday morning.

Based on latest observations and trends, occasionalVFR cigs
around fl080-fl100 will be possible at the metroplex before this
low level moisture is scoured out. Waco should experience
predominantly high clouds throughout the entire TAF cycle.

Outside of perhaps a few cumulus puffs and high clouds, there
should not be any operationally significant restrictions to the
sky. Breezy northwest winds across area terminals will yield a
light crosswind, but overall impacts should be negligible.

Northwest winds will shift to the west by mid-morning Thursday
before becoming southwesterly Thursday evening when a return to
south flow will be possible. These winds will shift in response to
the approach of the next upper trough which will bring in
additional upper level clouds.

24-bain

Preliminary point temps/pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 75 54 85 62 79 / 5 0 5 5 40
waco 78 54 85 62 80 / 5 0 5 10 40
paris 68 49 81 56 81 / 5 0 5 5 20
denton 73 50 84 58 78 / 5 0 5 5 40
mckinney 71 49 82 58 79 / 5 0 5 5 30
dallas 75 55 85 62 80 / 5 0 5 5 40
terrell 73 51 83 59 82 / 5 0 5 5 30
corsicana 75 53 84 61 80 / 5 0 5 5 30
temple 78 53 85 63 81 / 5 0 5 10 40
mineral wells 76 51 88 58 80 / 5 0 5 10 40

Fwd watches/warnings/advisories
None.

90/82


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi60 minW 910.00 miFair53°F44°F72%1009.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi59 minW 810.00 miFair52°F43°F72%1010.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi59 minW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F44°F77%1009.8 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi57 minW 810.00 miFair49°F42°F81%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE6S5S13S18
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NW16NW15NW13NW12W7W10W8W6W6W9
1 day agoE4E8E10E6E9E6E6SE7E6SE11
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SE12W17N4SW5
2 days agoNW12NW12NW13NW11NW12N11N10N9N11NW7CalmCalmE5E8E8E4CalmNE4E3E5E4E4E4E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.