Friday, September21, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:28PM Friday September 21, 2018 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:53PMMoonset 2:59AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
706 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018

Multiple aviation weather concerns today with low ceilings,
numerous chances for showers storms and eventually a wind shift.

A 30 knot low level jet will continue to bring MVFR to ifr
ceilings to much of north and central texas. These low clouds
should lift slowly through the day but will likely not scatter
out due to deep moisture in place and multiple rounds of showers
and storms. MVFR ceilings will return this evening and remain
through the morning Saturday.

Storm timing will be the biggest challenge with large scale
forcing increasing through the day and a cold front approaching
from the northwest. It appears that the best window for
thunderstorms at any of the TAF sites will be from early afternoon
through the evening, but there is a good chance that storms could
linger through the night.

Outside of the gusty and erratic wind associated with any
thunderstorm, south winds will prevail at or below 13 knots.

Timing FROPA will also be a challenge with guidance in poor
agreement. For now will go with a blend of the GFS and NAM and
bring the front through the metroplex TAF sites after 12z
Saturday. However, it is possible that thunderstorm outflow could
result in a north northeast wind much earlier than 12z.


Short term issued 339 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018
today and tonight
the combination of large scale lift from an approaching upper
trough and moisture convergence on an approaching cold front will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today
and tonight. The best coverage of storms will be across the
northwest zones this afternoon and tonight along and behind the
front. With a deep moisture profile in place and fairly weak mid
level flow, the potential for heavy rainfall will be high,
especially across the northwest half of the forecast area,
generally northwest of a line from comanche to cleburne to sulphur
springs where a flash flood watch is in effect beginning at 7 am.

The remainder of the region will also see scattered showers and
storms today and tonight, but these storms will be more dependent
on transient outflows and surface heating. Although the overall
severe weather threat will be low, decent low level shear could
result in a few strong to marginally severe storms today,
especially across the southern zones if the clouds can temporarily
clear. Gusty winds will be the primary hazards with the
strongest storms, however, it is not out of the question for a
brief small tornado to form just given the moisture and low level
shear profile.

The temperature forecast for today will be a challenge due to the
cloud cover, pockets of rain-cooled air and the position of the
cold front. The northwest zones should struggle to get out of the
70s while the southeast zones will likely approach the lower 90s
if the Sun makes even a brief appearance. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 60s in the northwest to the mid 70s southeast.


Long term issued 339 am cdt Fri sep 21 2018
Saturday through Thursday
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing Saturday
morning as a cold front continues to work its way through north
and central texas. The air mass near and ahead of the cold front
will be very conducive for heavy rainfall. Forecast soundings show
nearly saturated and moist adiabatic profiles, deep warm cloud
layers in excess of 4,500 meters, and precipitable water values
near record levels for late september. The bulk of the heavy rain
will likely be on Friday when the strongest cyclonic vorticity
advection is passing through the region, but this threat will
likely continue into at least Saturday morning. The flash flood
watch in effect will go through 1 pm Saturday, but may need to be
extended should the front move slower than forecast (especially
for our eastern counties). While the strongest upper-level support
will move off into the mississippi valley by Sunday, the surface
front will remain across north and central texas, acting as a
focus for additional rainfall.

We should get a bit of a break in rainfall on Monday and Tuesday
as the front washes out over central texas, though at least low-
end rain chances will remain (particularly in our southeastern
counties) as elevated moisture levels remain in place, and a few
subtle ripples in the upper-level flow pass overhead. The lack of
a low-level forcing mechanism should preclude a heavy rain threat.

The forecast gets rather tricky later next week. Both the GFS and
ecmwf seem to agree with a "troughier" pattern across much of the
north american continent north of the 37th parallel, but seem to
disagree with regards to the details. The ECMWF seems to deamplify
the flow a little bit, but also cuts off a shortwave trough into
a closed upper-level low over northern sonora. The GFS has much
more amplified flow, but tries to build in subtle ridging into
texas south of the longwave trough in the mid-latitudes. Both
models are determined to bring a strong cold front into oklahoma
by Thursday evening. After that, they disagree on what to do with
it. The ecmwf, despite having height falls over the southwest and
southern rockies, keeps the front stalled out in the sooner
state. The GFS on the other hand, blasts the cold front as far
south as the interstate 10 corridor, despite it having higher 500
mb heights than the ecmwf. The GEFS did not offer much to
demystify the late week forecast as it shows tremendous spread in
its members. This is all a long way of saying that predictability
is very poor for Wednesday and beyond next week.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 83 71 78 68 81 90 90 80 60 50
waco 88 73 80 67 85 70 70 70 60 50
paris 82 70 78 67 79 70 80 80 60 70
denton 81 69 76 67 79 90 100 80 60 50
mckinney 82 70 78 67 79 90 90 80 60 60
dallas 85 73 78 68 82 80 90 80 60 50
terrell 84 73 83 69 84 70 80 80 60 60
corsicana 86 73 80 68 82 70 60 70 60 60
temple 86 72 80 66 84 70 60 60 60 50
mineral wells 82 68 72 64 79 90 100 70 40 40

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Saturday afternoon for txz091>095-

79 37

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi88 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast80°F73°F79%1012.9 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi27 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1013.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi27 minSSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F75°F87%1013.3 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi45 minS 77.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F73°F89%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10S11--SE11SE12S16S21
1 day ago--S6
2 days agoS6S11S8S6S8S8S6S7SE6S5SE5S4S5S6S4S5S4S3S4S5S3S3SW65

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.