Tuesday, March26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:46PM Tuesday March 26, 2019 5:47 AM CDT (10:47 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 32.91, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 kfwd 260853
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
353 am cdt Tue mar 26 2019

Short term
Today and tonight
the shortwave disturbance showing up on satellite this morning
will drop harmlessly across missouri and into the mississippi
valley, having too little moisture for any convective development.

The primary feature of note is the large-scale ridge building
over the plains, which will bring pleasant weather to the region
for the next 24 hours. Cold air advection behind the Sunday
night Monday cold front has brought a chilly start to today, but
plentiful Sun will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s
and lower 70s this afternoon. Winds will veer to the east late
this afternoon, then to the southeast tonight as the post-frontal
surface ridge shifts east of the region. Clear skies and light
southeast winds will allow temperatures to fall into the mid and
upper 40s tonight.

30

Long term
Wednesday through Monday
Wednesday and Thursday will remain quiet on the sensible weather
front, with warm and breezy conditions as we await our next
system and cold front just in time for this coming weekend. Low
level warm advection should start in earnest for the the latter
half of the week and with plentiful sunshine Wednesday, I leaned
toward warmer guidance versus the blends on high temperatures.

Even with increasing mid-high clouds Thursday and the expected
breezy south winds, temperatures should warm into the 70s each
day. A surge of stratus should arrive Thursday night, as our next
system approaches from the west and a low level jet of 30-40 knots
being induced by a lead shortwave moving across the region helps
surge gulf moisture northward. Lows that were in the upper 40s to
mid 50s will only will be hard-pressed to fall below 60 degrees
Friday morning with expected morning clouds and gusty south winds
continuing. The nose of the strongest low level warm advection
should remain focused just to our north and northeast toward late
Thursday through Friday morning and toward the ozarks. Combined
with a decent elevated mixed layer(eml) cap between 700mb-800mb,
only concern would be a some sprinkles or possible a stray shower
or two underneath the slow-lifting eml.

The axis of deeper moisture should continue to shift to along and
east of i-35 by Friday afternoon, as low level flow veers and
dries out the lower levels with the assist from a surface dryline
surging east through the western cwa. The dryline is one feature where
medium range guidance such as the european and GFS can struggle
on. As height falls occur in advance of a cold front crashing
south through the plains, the eastward progression of the dryline
will be dependent on latitude and track of a weak surface low
track just in advance of a the front.

For now, I will keep a mention of slight chance-low chance pop
east of a gainesville-dfw-hearne line where better moisture in the
850-700mb layer will orient for the sustenance of updrafts for
convection. Though isolated coverage of a strong to severe storm
is possible, especially north of i-20 and east of i-35 across our
northeast counties, it does appear the main mid level shortwave
track is now being progged further north from oklahoma kansas
border -- east toward the ozarks. As such, fully agree with spc
designating the 15% severe risk northeast of our counties across
eastern oklahoma and possibly into the western ozarks for the day
4 period. The west-southwest flow aloft should maintain some
order of warmer mid level dry air as noted beforehand through
midnight Saturday.

We'll continue to fine-tune the forecast for Friday Friday night
in future forecasts, just in case models do a u-turn and start
pulling down the better upper jet MAX and shortwave forcing back
southward. As for high temperatures Friday, I once again elected
toward warmer side of guidance, especially the central and western
counties where strong insolation should help highs climb well
into the 80s.

As the aformentioned shortwave moves quickly east into the mid
mississippi valley late Friday night and Saturday, a very strong
cold front will be fully supported southward into north and
central texas from the pre-dawn hours through midday Saturday. In
my humble opinion, this may be our best window for a strong or
severe storm or two across our far eastern counties with 50 knots
of wsw deep layer shear, effective bulk wind difference(ebwd), and
steep mid-level lapse rates 7-8 deg c km which could lead to at
least a hail threat. If surface dew point temperatures end up
being higher than currently advertised in these models, then some
sbcape may be available for a localized damaging wind threat with
any convective line segments across east texas. For now, we'll
remain conservative until we can get better agreement from the the
gfs european models and when our local cams can start to sample
this system.

Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy, brisk, and colder conditions
Saturday afternoon and continuing through the remainder of the
weekend, as evidenced by a surface high on the order of 1035mb
dropping southward through the plains and toward the gulf
coast. Low level cold advection will be impressive and surface
pressures that high are a sign of the cold and dense nature of the
this airmass which is originating from the northwest territory and
eastern alaska. It certainly won't feel like we're entering early
april, even into Monday as highs will be hard-pressed to warm past
the mid 50s to mid 60s. The northerly winds will also bring a bite
to the air that old man winter isn't quite done yet. Lastly, mid
level disturbances ejecting across particularly our central texas
counties within the southern branch of a split-flow regime across
the central CONUS may lend to low chances for showers and even an
elevated rumble of thunder on Sunday into Monday.

05

Aviation issued 1141 pm cdt Mon mar 25 2019
6z tafs
vfr conditions expected to prevail through the period with
northerly winds around 10 kt gradually coming around to the east
during the day Tuesday then more southerly by early Wednesday
morning. Other than some passing high clouds, no significant
aviation concerns are expected through the period.

Dunn

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 70 50 74 54 74 0 0 0 0 0
waco 71 48 74 52 74 0 0 0 0 0
paris 66 45 71 50 71 0 0 0 0 0
denton 69 47 73 54 74 0 0 0 0 0
mckinney 68 45 71 53 72 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 70 51 75 55 74 0 0 0 0 0
terrell 68 45 72 51 74 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 70 47 72 51 72 0 0 0 0 0
temple 72 48 74 52 74 0 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 70 46 76 55 77 0 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

30 05


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi56 minNNW 510.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1024.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi55 minNNW 410.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1025.5 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi55 minNNW 59.00 miFair49°F43°F80%1025.5 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi53 minENE 410.00 miFair48°F43°F86%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from NFW (wind in knots)
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
Last 24hrN6N4NW6N7N9N12N13
G28
N13
G18
N12N12
G16
N12
G19
N13N7N10N8NE7N7N8N9N9N6NW5N5N5
1 day agoS7S6S5S11S12SW13
G18
SW10SW9SW9S12
G19
S8
G20
SW12S15
G19
S11S10CalmN5CalmNW64N9N6N4N5
2 days agoS8S10S9S12S13
G20
S16S17S16S16
G26
S14
G22
S15
G22
S14S10S15S17
G26
S16
G21
S14S9S10S12S12S10S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.