Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pelican Bay, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:27PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 1:56 PM CST (19:56 UTC) Moonrise 2:40PMMoonset 2:56AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pelican Bay, TX
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location: 32.91, -97.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 181748
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1148 am cst Tue dec 18 2018

Aviation
An upper low will approach the region tonight and bring increasing
moisture and southerly flow to the region. This should result in
MVFR to ifr CIGS overnight and into Wednesday morning. Confidence
is not high on the height of the cloud layer with some guidance
suggesting that it could be lower than ifr, while others delay the
arrival of any CIGS until Wednesday morning. For the metroplex
have started CIGS at MVFR after 7z and lowered them to ifr after
11z. For waco have gone a category lower than that due to higher
moisture and greater low level saturation. Some light fog may
accompany the low ceilings at all sites, but at this time it
doesn't appear the advection would be strong enough for a round of
dense advection fog. While some elevated instability is
available, believe that most of the activity will remain showers
and have indicated such from 7-18z. Otherwise light southeast
winds will prevail through the period, with a weak cold front or
wind shift arriving Wednesday afternoon. To avoid excessive lines
in dfw extended taf, just indicated CIGS rising to MVFR after noon
with no mention ofVFR or frontal wind shift later in the
afternoon at this time.

Tr.92

Short term issued 351 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
today through Wednesday
the primary weather focus for today revolves around the near-term
fog potential and temperature trends before another potent
shortwave translates into the region.

Nighttime microphysics and airmass rgb imagery depicts pervasive
mid and upper-level cloud cover associated with yesterday's
initial shortwave finally lifting north of the red river at this
hour. Clearing skies behind this cloud deck have allowed
temperatures to fall, and dewpoint depressions along and north of
us route 380 and east of i-45 have fallen under 1-2 degrees f. Light
or calm winds both at the surface and just aloft would seem to
support additional fog development through the morning hours, and
we've started to see visibilities dropping across parts of wise,
denton, and collin counties. That said, the lowest visibilities
(under 1 mile) have been pretty spotty thus far. As a result,
we've refrained from expanding the dense fog advisory at this time,
but contend we may have to expand this westward along us 380 and
also across our central texas counties where expansive low cloud
cover fog is inching northward depending in trends.

Any lingering fog reduced visibilities after 10 am will quickly
dissipate with increasing insolation mixing, but leftover low
cloud cover across our northeastern counties may reduce the
diurnal temperature range somewhat. Statistical guidance offers up
a fairly wide range for high temperatures today: guidance based
on more strongly-mixing nwp indicating highs in the mid and even
upper 60s (gfs), while others hold temperatures generally in the
upper 50s to near 60 (nam). Took more of a blend today since the
nam met guidance looks too cool and the GFS mav too warm, even
with the increasing southwesterly low-level flow today, especially
given anticipated increasing high cloud cover.

This evening and overnight, we'll turn our attention to the next
robust shortwave which is presently translating into northern
chihuahua. Initially, rather dry mid-levels will work against the
development of measurable precipitation, with mainly mid and
high-level echoes virga as the column attempts to saturate. Given
the rather robust nature of the large-scale forcing with this
system, think we'll eventually get a pretty good slug of showers
and embedded storms moving out of the hill country upper texas
coast in association with the strongest warm advection isentropic
lift late tonight and into Wednesday morning. Nudged pops upwards
south and east of a temple to sulphur springs line into the 50-60%
range as a result, with more limited coverage the farther north
and west you go. Overall, precipitation amounts should be fairly
light (a quarter to half an inch), but some embedded storms with
locally heavier amounts will be possible given the presence of
rather steep mid-level lapse rates.

Carlaw

Long term issued 351 am cst Tue dec 18 2018
Wednesday night through next Monday
the central conus, deep latitudinal mid-level trough that gave us
the mid week rainfall begins exiting stage right toward the ozarks
and mississippi valley late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

A cold front will move toward the i-20 30 corridors Wednesday
evening, before moving quickly out of the area and toward the
upper texas coast by sunrise Thursday morning. Lingering ascent in
the form of frontogenesis within the 850mb-500mb layer remains
across our far northeast counties mainly Wednesday evening with
showers rain. Embedded thunderstorms are not out of the question
east of hwy 75 and along -- north of i-30 due to steepening mid
level lapse rates with core of the deep mid level trough passing
across these areas. Any lingering rainfall should be light with
the increasing drying occurring at lower levels in wake of the
cold front passing through.

Lingering cloud cover, particularly over the east and lagging low
level cold advection to likely only result in lows falling mostly
into the low-middle 40s. Thursday is setting up to be a fairly
windy and gusty day, as strong pressure rises combine with strong
northwesterly and unidirectional wind fields within the deepening
frontal inversion. It's quite likely that a wind advisory will
need to be issued Thursday with northwest winds increasing to near
25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph across much of the area. Despite
plentiful sunshine, strong low level cold advection is noted on
models up through 850mb which will counter any insolation and make
for what will feel like a semi-chilly day despite highs recovering
into the 50s and even lower 60s across western central texas. A
broad surface high builds across west-central texas Thursday night
and combined with the dry air helping to decouple the stronger
winds just above the surface should help drop wind speeds down
fairly quickly. The clear skies and diminishing winds will allow
for many rural areas to fall into the 30s to start your day out
Friday, except around 40 degrees in the immediate urban areas and
our far southeast counties.

The broad surface high should move east and skirt across south
texas as our deep northwest flow aloft dampens during the day
Friday. Plentiful sunshine associated with dampened shortwave
ridging aloft will combine with rapidly increasing surface
pressure falls off to the northwest and a warm up mostly back into
the 60s except our far eastern counties Friday. I did lean toward
slightly warmer blends for Friday, but the stronger low level
warm advection and warm up arrives on Saturday to begin your
weekend. Though I went warmer, it definitely could be warmer than
even the 65-70 degree highs i'm forecasting out west on Saturday
afternoon, as low level flow veers to southwesterly up through
850mb and would not be surprised to see several areas top the 70
degree mark. If there's a day to be outdoors this weekend,
Saturday is your day despite breezy southwest winds 15-20 mph and
gusty. Why you say? A strong shortwave disturbance within the
northern stream will progressively move east-southeast across the
central southern plains. This system will be dry, but assist
another cold front into the area. The brisk north-northwest winds
10-15 mph and scattered-broken mid-high clouds associated with the
shortwave moving across the region on Sunday will result in highs
struggling into the mid 50s north to around 60 degrees
south. Even those values may be optimistic if higher cloud cover
is more opaque than currently expected.

The progressive pattern continues as we head into early next week
and toward the holiday. A switch-over back to south-southeast
winds returns on Monday. However, any warm-up will be quelled
somewhat as increasing southwest flow aloft in advance of an
organizing longwave mid level trough over the western u.S. Rockies
will provide plentiful cloud cover across the area and limit
insolation Monday. As is typical with energy deepening and
piecing off into the southern stream of the westerlies aloft,
medium range models and associated ensemble means are struggling
mightily. Not only with timing tracking of mid level energy within
the longwave trough itself, but also with our moisture and
environment. That said, I remained very conservative with low
convective chances returning late next week. Best plume of column
moisture will be across the eastern half of the area. A general
20% west - 30%-40% east looks ok for now. We'll continue to
investigate this system further as future upper-air launches help
models sample this system as we move forward in time.

05

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 60 48 61 47 60 0 30 20 5 0
waco 61 48 63 47 61 0 40 30 5 0
paris 56 44 57 45 55 0 30 40 40 10
denton 60 46 61 44 58 0 30 20 5 0
mckinney 58 46 60 45 57 0 30 30 20 0
dallas 60 48 61 47 61 0 30 20 10 0
terrell 59 46 61 46 59 0 40 30 20 0
corsicana 61 48 61 46 57 0 50 30 10 0
temple 65 49 64 46 61 0 40 30 5 0
mineral wells 62 46 63 43 60 5 30 10 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX9 mi65 minSSE 51.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F42°F52%1015.4 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX10 mi64 minSE 510.00 miFair57°F43°F60%1017 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX11 mi64 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F42°F56%1017.4 hPa
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX24 mi62 minN 07.00 miFair57°F38°F51%1016.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3CalmNW3N6N4SW4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3S5
1 day agoS7S9S6S5S6SW4NW7NW6NW5NW6NW5NW6NW5W3NW6NW6NW7NW4NW6W5NW6N6N8NW5
2 days agoNW6NW6W6N5CalmCalmNW3NW5CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4SW9S9S11S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.