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FXUS64 KFWD 051905 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 205 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 147 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/ /Through Monday Night/

Weather Highlights:

- A few storms possible this afternoon across Central Texas - Patchy fog overnight - Late morning-early afternoon showers and storms in East Texas.
- An isolated severe storm or two possible across North Texas (west of I-35) late tomorrow afternoon.

Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have been in place throughout much of the region. The one exception has been across the Brazos Valley, where subsidence from the morning MCS had kept clouds at a minimum until recently. A northward moving moisture boundary, evident by the sharp increase in dew points, will continue its northward migration through the rest of this afternoon. Although there's plenty of instability at this time, there's some question as to whether the developing storms across I-10 will hamper storm development in our area. If a storm does manage to develop, small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Any storms this afternoon will quickly dissipate after sunset, setting the stage for patchy fog across much of our region.

By Monday morning, any patchy fog will dissipate with low clouds lingering through around noon. High temperatures tomorrow will be 5-8 degrees warmer compared to today given continued south flow.

With moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in, warm air advection showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon. Although MUCAPE will be fairly high (~3000 J/Kg), an elevated thermal inversion will help keep the updrafts from tapping into the elevated instability and precipitation should remain below the capping inversion.

Later tomorrow afternoon, a shortwave will be advancing eastward into the Southern Plains as a dryline sharpen just west of our area. Strong southwesterly 850mb flow will help keep the cap in place much of the afternoon. If the cap weakens enough, there is a low potential a storm develops across western North Texas tomorrow afternoon. *IF* a storm develops, comparative analogs suggest the environment is volatile enough to produce very large hail. There is a high potential that storms do not develop, however, on the off chance that they do, they will quickly become severe.

Any storms tomorrow will gradually dissipate after sunset, leaving behind dry conditions the rest of the night. Monday night temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s throughout much of the region. The one exception will be in the far northwest, where a cold front will be moving in and temperatures in the upper 50s can be expected.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/NEW/ Update:

No major changes were made to the long term forecast with only a few adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through the middle of next week. An unsettled pattern will continue through Wednesday and Thursday with potential for showers and thunderstorms remaining across portions of North and Central Texas, primarily along and east of the I-35 corridor. There will be a low chance for isolated instances of severe weather across this area on Wednesday, primarily for a large hail, damaging wind, and flash flooding threat. Additional potential will exist on Thursday as well, but confidence in the spatial distribution of thunderstorms is not terribly high at this time. Because of this, a broad-stroke inclusion of low PoPs remains necessary until details can be further refined with hi-res model guidance in the coming days.

Temperatures will be on the rise through the middle of the week, with afternoon highs reaching into the low 90s across Central Texas. Coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will quickly approach the 100 degree mark. It will be important to start considering heat safety precautions as this brief stretch of late-spring heat kicks into gear. While we won't be hitting any heat product criteria (thankfully), this initial adjustment to the heat could cause some issues with our more vulnerable population. This will not last long however as a strong cold front sweeps in across the region, bringing temperatures down to seasonal normals and allowing for a stretch of dry weather through the upcoming weekend. For more details, please see the previous discussion below and continue to check back for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion: /Next Week Through Mother's Day Weekend/

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally, the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position (near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable but dry start to Mother's Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however, as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

AVIATION
/Issued 147 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024/ /18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Storms in Central Texas may likely stay south of KACT this afternoon. Low ceilings and patchy fog return areawide tonight.

The ongoing MVFR ceilings are now in the process of eroding with VFR expected in the next few hours. Wind speed and direction has remained variable throughout much of the day, and will continue this way through around sunset. After sunset, winds will become established out of the southeast with low clouds building back in after midnight.

Patchy fog will be possible tonight. Confidence in visibility reduction is higher across Central Texas. For North Texas, we'll continue to monitor trends and adjust the TAF as needed.

Tomorrow morning, a few showers and storms will be possible east of I-35. Although impacts to the immediate airports are not expected, traffic east of I-35 may deal with a few pop-up showers or isolated storms.

Another batch of thunderstorms is expected to develop northwest of the D10 airspace tomorrow afternoon. The probability that any convection impacts D10 is low at this time, thus, it will not be included in the TAF. Similar to the fog, overnight trends will have to be monitored closely given the small scale atmospheric features will have a big impact on the forecast.

Hernandez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 84 71 88 72 / 5 20 10 0 5 Waco 68 82 71 88 71 / 10 20 5 5 5 Paris 64 81 70 86 70 / 10 20 30 5 10 Denton 65 83 68 87 70 / 5 20 20 0 5 McKinney 65 81 69 87 70 / 5 20 20 0 5 Dallas 68 84 71 89 72 / 5 20 10 0 5 Terrell 66 81 70 86 71 / 5 20 20 0 5 Corsicana 68 84 71 88 73 / 10 20 10 5 5 Temple 68 83 71 88 71 / 10 10 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 84 66 88 70 / 5 20 5 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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