Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:21PM Monday November 12, 2018 8:20 PM EST (01:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:12AMMoonset 9:35PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Tonight..E winds 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late this evening. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 66 degrees.
AMZ300 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerville, SC
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location: 32.96, -80.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 130025
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
725 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week
with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A
mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Early this evening: a complex situation remains in place across
the forecast area. Surface analysis shows a damming high
situated to the northeast with a sharp and well defined coastal
front now laying right along our coastal counties. The cold air
damming is quite shallow, and the kchs RAOB data shows that the
low level inversion is only about 1 kft deep. Winds quickly
shift from northeasterly at the surface to southeasterly at 1
kft and above. The current radar presentation also suggests that
the front is just inland of the beaches with most of the current
shower development just on the cool side of the boundary. Most
models show the coastal front surging inland through the night
as a surface low develops near the florida panhandle. Usually,
models are too quick to erode the low level wedge, but in this
case it seems reasonable given the shallow nature of the cool
and stable air. We will continue to see periods of showers
develop and lift northward due to upper divergence in the right
entrance region of a powerful 150+ knot jet core that stretches
from the great lakes to nova scotia. Overall, the best forcing
for additional rain appears to be favored along and east of
i-95, and that is where the highest rain chances have been
placed.

There are a couple of concerns tonight, including the potential
for thunderstorms and severe weather. As the coastal front
progresses inland, much warmer air will arrive and could even
bring some surface based instability, though weak. Wind profiles
are concerning with the veering that takes place in the 0-3 km
layer, with accelerating flow and ~30 knots of shear.

Furthermore, hi-res models show some discrete cells developing,
and even some multi-cells. Given the background wind field, some
interesting storm structure is possible if enough instability
can develop. However, current thinking is that profiles are just
not supportive of enough instability and the overall severe
threat is low.

Finally, fog will be possible inland of where the coastal front
is able to progress. Some model guidance would indicate the
potential for dense fog, and it can't be ruled out given the
moist atmosphere and low level stable layer west of the front.

Added in some patchy fog for now, but could need to enhance the
fog wording later in some areas.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
A surface cold front will manage to cross the forecast area by late
Tuesday with high pressure beginning to build back in behind. An
increasingly sharp upper trough located over the south-central
plains region will move east with many of the synoptic models
indicating formation of a closed upper low by late Tuesday or early
Wednesday. Interestingly, the frontal system could exhibit features
of both katabatic and anabatic structure. While persistent, low-
level southwest flow in advance of the front will provide the warmth
and moisture for precipitation production during and in advance of
front passage, the presence of the sharp trough and or closed low to
the west will maintain southwest flow just aloft, even as surface-
level winds veer northeast behind the front, maintaining atmospheric
column moisture levels. While model soundings to a small degree show
very shallow drying, it is unclear at this point if the consequence
will be primarily expansive but dry cloud cover, or if elevated
precipitation chances will continue into early Wednesday.

Regardless, and despite the subtle dampening of the parent trough
through the day Wednesday as the cutoff low moves closer to the
southeast u.S., it appears the mid and upper level trough low become
phase-locked and our next mid-latitude cyclone is off to the races.

Complicating matters for the Wednesday forecast include some degree
of cold air damming likely persisting east of the appalachians,
which the low pressure system will have to ride over. Thursday into
Thursday night, the low pressure system will eject northeast away
from the area, with drier high pressure building in behind. While
some model variance exists with timing the end of precipitation on
Thursday, reasonable agreement suggests noticeably drier conditions
over much if not all of the forecast area by Thursday afternoon or
evening. While some thunder might be heard, and a nonzero chance of
damaging winds and or tornadoes exists, the best potential for any
severe weather looks to remain well inland of the forecast area
through the short term period.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Latest model guidance suggests improving conditions Thursday night
with dry weather prevailing into early next week, although another
reinforcing mostly dry cold front looks to move through probably
Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures will mostly be near to below
normal.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
At kchs: the coastal front is in the vicinity and ceilings have
become more variable from their earlier ifr level. While MVFR
conditions could settle in for a few hours, a lowering to ifr is
expected later tonight. As showers move through the terminal
the next few hours conditions could temporarily lower until a
more widespread lowering late this evening. Ifr conditions could
improve around midday for a few hours before deteriorating
again late in the afternoon with the arrival of a front from the
west. Also, showers will likely accompany this front at the end
of the forecast period. Data from the kchs weather balloon
showed surface winds out of the northeast around 5 knots, with
winds at 2 kft out of the southeast around 35 knots. This
results in about 35 knots of shear across the 2 kft layer, so
low-level wind shear has been included for a few hours this
evening.

At ksav: ifr ceilings are expected to persist through tonight
and into much of Tuesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers
could move through the terminal this evening, but should be
short-lived. Fog development will be possible tonight, but is
mainly expected inland of the terminal. Conditions should
improve to MVFR sometime Tuesday morning, before falling back to
ifr in the afternoon with the arrival of a front from the west.

Also, showers will likely accompany this front at the end of
the forecast period. Data from the kchs weather balloon showed
winds at 2 kft out of the southeast around 35 knots. This
combined with ksav surface winds light and out of the northeast results
in about 35 knots of shear across the 2 kft layer, so low-level
wind shear has been included for a few hours this evening.

Extended aviation outlook: flight restrictions are expected at both
terminals into Thursday due to a series of low pressure systems,
likely reducing primarily ceilings but also possibly surface
visibilities below ifr levels at times. In addition, gusty winds are
expected, mainly Wednesday into early Thursday.

Marine
Tonight: winds and seas will build tonight as the coastal front
pushes inland. Winds should turn east and eventually southwest.

Winds look to be highest off the charleston county coast where a
few gusts to gale force could occur. Recently noted 41004 has
been gusting in the upper 20s to around 30 kt for the past
several hours. Seas will build to 6-8ft charleston and georgia
offshore waters with 4-7 ft elsewhere. Small craft advisories
remain in effect for all marine legs with the exception of
charleston harbor.

Tuesday through Saturday: unsettled conditions are expected for
marine zones through much of this period as a series of storm
systems impacts the region. Small craft advisories are likely
for most of the area through Thursday, or through Friday for
offshore georgia waters. At this time, the worst conditions look
to occur Wednesday into Thursday morning as surface pressure
falls result in the tightest pressure gradient of the period. As
a result, gusts to gale force will be possible Wednesday
through Wednesday night, with seas reaching near 9-10 feet.

Conditions will then improve Thursday into Friday as the low
pulls away from the southeast and the pressure gradient relaxes.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Tuesday for amz352.

Small craft advisory until midnight est Friday night for
amz374.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Tuesday for amz350.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Tuesday for amz354.

Near term... Bsh
short term... Jmc
long term... Rjb
aviation... Bsh jmc
marine... St jmc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 19 mi33 min E 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 66°F1017.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 25 mi81 min SSE 9.9 G 11 70°F 1018.3 hPa (-1.1)66°F
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 31 mi96 min N 1 61°F 1018 hPa61°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 32 mi73 min SSE 12 72°F 67°F
41033 48 mi73 min Calm G 0

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC10 mi25 minN 04.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist59°F59°F100%1017.6 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC18 mi46 minN 07.00 miLight Rain55°F55°F100%1017.6 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC23 mi46 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist57°F57°F100%1017.9 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi46 minN 05.00 miRain54°F53°F100%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from DYB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNW8NW4W5NW5
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2 days agoCalmN5N3NE3N3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmN4NE3CalmCalmCalmE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina
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Bacon Bridge
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Mon -- 01:06 AM EST     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:10 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:40 PM EST     2.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:54 PM EST     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.81.81.61.310.60.40.30.40.81.41.82.12.121.71.410.70.40.40.61

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EST     -1.71 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:06 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM EST     1.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:51 PM EST     -2.07 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EST     1.32 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1-1.5-1.7-1.5-0.8-0.10.71.31.41.10.90.4-0.4-1.3-1.9-2.1-1.7-0.900.91.31.10.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.