Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Summerville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:12PM Friday February 22, 2019 8:09 AM EST (13:09 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 611 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..S winds 5 kt, becoming E early this afternoon, then becoming ne late. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers. Vsby 1/4 nm or less this morning.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. A slight chance of showers. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 57 degrees.
AMZ300 611 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A backdoor cold front will slide south across the area through this evening, then shifting back north as a warm front late Saturday and and Saturday night. A cold front will then move through Sunday followed by high pressure into mid week. Low pressure will then likely affect the area late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Summerville, SC
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location: 32.96, -80.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 221127
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
627 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
A backdoor cold front will slide south across the area through
this evening, then shifting back north as a warm front late
Saturday and and Saturday night. A cold front will then move
through Sunday followed by high pressure into mid week. Low
pressure will then likely affect the area late next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 620 am: IR satellite and ongoing upper air observation
indicated a large patch of mid clouds, bases between 8.5-9.0
kft, across the chs tri-county area. The passage of the mid
clouds has improve sfc visibilities, resulting in patchy dense
fog. Elsewhere, light south winds and patchy fog remained inland
with widespread dense fog along the coast. I will keep the
current placement and timing of the dense fog advisory.

As of 355 am: latest sfc analysis indicated a wavy stationary
front across the deep south, curving from near the fall line of
sc and east across the grand strand. This front is expected to
slide south over the sc lowcountry this morning as a backdoor
cold front. The front should accelerate southward through the
daylight hours as cold air damming strengthens across the
central and western carolinas. The front is timed to push south
of the forecast area by early this evening. In the wake of the
front, sfc pressures should gradually rise and winds will remain
steady from the northeast.

Fog: sfc observations, web cams, and IR satellite indicated
widespread sea fog across the shelf waters and over the coastal
counties. Inland, IR satellite and observations indicated a large
ragged patch of mid clouds. These clouds and a few weak showers have
kept fog limited to a half mile visibility or greater. Near term
guidance has indicated over the past several runs that dense fog
will develop inland. However, the persistent mid clouds has not
shown signs of dissipating or moving significantly. I will keep the
dense fog advisory for the coastal zones until 10 am. The case for
fog tonight is low given NE flow and dewpoints falling into the 50s.

Temps and pops: temperatures will remain challenging giving the
dense fog along the coast and the approach and passage of the
backdoor cold front. As a result, the high temperatures forecast
this afternoon will feature mid 60s across berkeley county to low
80s along the altamaha river. Using a blend of mos, low temperatures
will range in the low to mid 50s, with a corridor of around 60 along
the altamaha river.

Short term Saturday through Monday
Moderate to high confidence this period. Weak high pressure wedging
is likely to give way to a warm front later Saturday and Saturday
night before a cold front moves through Sunday. Cooler high pressure
will then move in for Sunday night and Monday.

Some showers are expected Saturday and Saturday night with the warm
frontal passage but not much rain is likely. A better chance of rain
is then expected Sunday with some higher amounts, although mainly
less than a quarter of an inch. Can't completely rule out a few
storms but chances appear too low to mention at this time given the
generally weak instability. Lastly, fog could develop Saturday night
and or push inland from the atlantic into Sunday.

Temperatures will likely stay above normal through the period, with
the warmest temperatures on Sunday when record highs high mins are
possible depending on the timing of the cold front.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
Moderate to high confidence through Tuesday with low confidence
thereafter. Dry high pressure will likely persist through at least
Tuesday before a coastal trough and or upper disturbance possibly
bring a chance of rain back to the forecast through mid week and
eventually a low pressure system later in the week. So chances are
pretty good that at least a portion of the mid-late week period will
be unsettled but timing and rain amounts are quite uncertain.

Temperatures should be near to above normal through at least
Wednesday before possibly dropping below normal.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
A marine layer will likely persist between the sfc and 1 kft.

The 12z chs sounding indicated a weak inversion from the sfc to
around 1000 ft agl. The capped marine layer should support fog
and low clouds at kchs into the early daylight hours. I will
initialize the 12z kchs TAF with lifr conditions, then
transitioning to ifr conditions through 14z with daytime mixing.

Ksav will begin the 12z TAF period with ifr conditions.

Lifr vis and ceilings mat develop over ksav between 12-14z.

Based on latest MOS and forecast soundings, conditions at ksav
should return toVFR by 14z. A backdoor cold front is timed to
reach kchs by 19z and ksav around sunset. The approach and
passage of the cold front should support at least MVFR ceilings,
ene winds, and scattered showers.

Extended aviation outlook: restrictions likely Saturday into Sunday
afternoon at kchs ksav. Strong winds also possible Sunday. More
restrictions possible toward the middle of next week.

Marine
Today: sfc observations, web cams, and IR satellite indicated
widespread sea fog across the shelf waters and over the coastal
counties. The sea fog will continue across the marine zones until a
back door slides south across the waters today. Based on the timing
of the front, a dense fog advisory is in effect for the charleston
harbor and charleston county near shore waters until 10 am, amz352
until 1 pm, and amz354 until 4 pm. In the wake of the front, winds
will shift and strengthen from the ne. Wave heights are forecast to
range from 2-3 ft within 20 nm to 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm.

Tonight: high pressure will strengthen following the passage of the
cold front, resulting in a 2 mb pressure gradient. NE winds are
forecast to strengthen to 15 to 20 kt across amz350 with seas
building to 4 to 5 ft this evening. At this time, conditions are
expected to remain below small craft advisory levels. The case for
fog tonight is low given NE flow and dewpoints falling into the 50s.

Saturday through Wednesday: a warm front will move north through the
area later Saturday and Saturday night with a cold front to move
through later Sunday. Conditions could reach marginal advisory
levels near the gulf stream Sunday and then again late in the
period. Otherwise, some dense sea fog could develop Saturday in the
ga waters and then across the sc waters Saturday night into Sunday
until the cold front passes.

Tides coastal flooding
It's not out of the question that we could reach coastal flood
advisory levels at charleston harbor with the high tide this
evening. The 5.9 ft mllw astronomical tide would only require a
1.1 ft anomaly which is quite possible based on the latest
forecast for 15-20 kt NE winds along the charleston county
coast.

Climate
Record highs for february 24...

kchs: 81 2017 and previous
kcxm: 81 1930
ksav: 86 2012
record high mins for february 24...

kchs: 60 1992 and previous
kcxm: 63 2018
ksav: 64 1980

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for gaz117-119-
139-141.

Sc... Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for scz048>052.

Marine... Dense fog advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for amz352.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am est this morning for amz330-350.

Dense fog advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for amz354.

Near term... Ned
short term... Rjb
long term... Rjb
aviation... Ned rjb
marine... Ned rjb
tides coastal flooding...

climate... Rjb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 19 mi57 min S 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 57°F1020.8 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 25 mi69 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1021.2 hPa (+0.8)
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 31 mi84 min Calm 64°F 1021 hPa64°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 32 mi61 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 58°F 56°F1020.4 hPa
41033 48 mi61 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 59°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Summerville Airport, SC8 mi74 minN 07.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1021 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC10 mi73 minSSW 107.00 miOvercast66°F64°F96%1020.4 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC18 mi74 minSW 77.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1020.3 hPa
Charleston Executive Airport, SC21 mi74 minS 40.15 miFog64°F64°F100%1021 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC23 mi74 minS 30.15 miFog64°F64°F100%1020.7 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC24 mi74 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist64°F64°F100%1021 hPa

Wind History from DYB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmW3S6SW6SW5SW6SW4S5S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SW3Calm
1 day agoNE3NE4N5N7N5N7N6N6NE3N3CalmN5N4N4N5N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE8N6N8
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NE6NE4NE7NE4NE5CalmNE4E4NE3NE3NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina
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Bacon Bridge
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Fri -- 12:26 AM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:31 AM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:10 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:46 PM EST     2.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:11 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:56 PM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:50 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.21.91.510.4-0.1-0.3-0.30.20.91.62.12.22.11.71.20.70.2-0.2-0.3-00.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Fri -- 01:24 AM EST     -3.20 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:25 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:53 AM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:39 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:46 PM EST     -2.97 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:52 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:10 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM EST     1.98 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.3-3.1-3-2-0.60.81.92.221.60.8-0.5-1.8-2.7-2.9-2.3-1.10.21.31.91.91.71.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.