Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grapevine, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:42PM Monday June 26, 2017 5:33 PM CDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 10:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grapevine, TX
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location: 32.96, -97.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 261944
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
244 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Short term
Tonight and Tuesday
spotty showers, with only an occasional cg strike, are ongoing
across western portions of north and central texas, "mostly" west of
i-35. This is where a shortwave will continue tracking slowly
southeast from the big country toward the hill country and south-
central texas through tonight. Will carry scattered convective
chances through nightfall generally southwest of a graham, to
mineral wells, to waco, to hearne line where better forcing will be
associated with this shortwave. After nightfall, widely scattered,
mostly showers with isolated thunderstorms should continue south of
i-20 and west of i-35 for the most part. CAPE is relatively "skinny"
through tonight with the tropical airmass in place with weak
northwest 0-6km bulk shear less than 15 knots, so we do not expect
any severe weather, but can't rule out some strong downbursts
through nightfall from any collapsing activity. Otherwise, it will
remain muggy overnight with light east-southeast winds less than 10
mph.

Tropical moisture will continue to remain entrenched across the cwa
on Tuesday. Intensifying lee cyclogenesis will help veer winds
southeasterly to between 10 to 15 mph. Though better forcing from
today's shortwave will be south of our area, any subsidence behind
this feature looks negligible with weak diffluent flow aloft
continuing overhead. A subtle disturbance will move south across
the region by afternoon and have included low convective chances
areawide. However, richer moisture south of i-20 should allow for
more scattered convection to percolate, with more isolated
coverage further north. Like today, shear will be weak with mainly
insolation and old subtle outflow boundaries playing roles for
development.

05

Long term
Tuesday night through Monday
a relatively benign pattern looks to prevail through the middle
and end of the week as north and central texas remains situated
within the northeastern periphery of the subtropical high. A
persistent weakness in the upper-level flow across the gulf coast
looks to be the only salient feature of interest during this
portion of the forecast. This feature should help push diurnally-
driven convection into our southern and eastern counties each
afternoon. In typical summertime fashion, winds will be
exceptionally light through the troposphere (you'll have to head
above 200 mb to find winds in excess of 20 kts), and as a result,
any severe threat looks to remain negligible outside of some
gusty winds as storms entrain drier mid-level air. With limited
change to the synoptic pattern through the end of the week,
temperatures look to fluctuate little from day-to-day, with highs
within a degree or two of climatology. Heat index values will
begin climbing towards or just in excess of 100 degrees into the
upcoming weekend.

The longer range guidance remains in decent agreement that a
departing shortwave and associated surface low across the great
lakes will send a stalling cold front into kansas and northern
oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening. Climatology, and the
progressive nature of the parent upper trough will strongly work
against this front making it south of the red river. However, deep
moisture underneath the strengthening EML plume (sub-800 mb
mixing ratios in the 15-17 g kg range) will result in a reservoir
of copious amounts of instability. As a result, it seems at least
plausible that showers and thunderstorms could materialize along
this boundary Friday afternoon and evening, and this is depicted
with reasonable consistency among the global models. The presence
of dry mid-level air and associated dcape values in excess of 1000
j kg would indicate that cold pool amalgamation would be possible
overnight. This would ultimately favor a decaying thunderstorm
complex tracking towards our red river counties towards daybreak
on Saturday as any activity builds into a weakening low-level
jet. As a result, we've bumped pops up just a hair along the red
river to account for southward-sinking activity given the good
model agreement. Weak mid-level winds and increasing capping
across our region should mute the severe weather threat, but we'll
refine these details over the coming days as the mesoscale
details become clearer.

Looking just beyond our valid forecast period: the deterministic
gfs paints a potentially unsettled pattern for the 4th, but
ensemble guidance offers up a decidedly drier (and hotter)
solution.

Carlaw

Aviation issued 102 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017
18z tafs
isolated-scattered showers continue to percolate across areas
along and west of i-35 this morning, as strong late june heating
works upon rich moisture below 800mb. As a shortwave continues
dropping southeast from the south plains to over the hill country
and colorado river valley through the afternoon, best
coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms will be south of i-20
and mainly west of i-35. Brief impacts could occur at all
airports between 20z-01z, but it will be very hit and miss,
summer activity usually is. Vcsh vcts will be continued with low
confidence on occurrence at any one terminal, at any one time.

Winds will continue to be light E ese less than 10 knots through
the day and into this evening. Some MVFR is expected again by
daybreak at waco, with dfw airports much less certain as
relatively drier air entraining in from the north in the
925-850mb layer.

Dfw
Vfr CIGS will prevail with spotty, diurnal ts CB this afternoon
into early evening hours. A brief tempo window for MVFR above 2
kft will be introduced through 19z.

Otherwise, light E winds less than 10 knots to prevail with vcts
from 20z-01z possible. Could be some MVFR br vsbys near sunrise
Tuesday, but confidence is too low to introduce at this juncture.

Waco
Vfr CIGS will prevail with spotty, diurnal ts CB this afternoon
into early evening. Light E SE winds will prevail less than 10
knots. MVFR CIGS look to return for a few hours right after
sunrise Tuesday, but should mix toVFR by 15z and after.

05

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 72 90 73 92 75 10 20 5 5 5
waco 72 90 72 92 75 20 40 10 10 5
paris 68 89 69 90 73 5 10 0 5 5
denton 68 90 71 91 74 10 20 5 5 5
mckinney 68 90 71 91 74 10 20 5 5 5
dallas 73 90 74 92 76 10 20 5 5 5
terrell 70 90 71 91 74 10 20 5 10 5
corsicana 72 89 72 91 74 10 30 5 10 5
temple 71 88 70 90 73 20 40 10 10 5
mineral wells 69 89 70 92 72 20 20 5 5 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

90 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX4 mi41 minENE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F69°F55%1015.5 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX13 mi47 minESE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F68°F62%1017.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi41 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F70°F61%1015.6 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX14 mi41 minENE 810.00 miOvercast86°F69°F57%1015.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX17 mi41 minE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F71°F59%1015.7 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi41 minESE 510.00 miA Few Clouds84°F70°F63%1016.1 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX18 mi44 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F68°F58%1017.3 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX20 mi1.7 hrsE 67.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F72°F63%1015.8 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX20 mi41 minE 910.00 miA Few Clouds86°F71°F61%1015.7 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi41 minESE 810.00 miA Few Clouds85°F71°F63%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from DFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9E7E6E9E7E7SE7SE12SE11SE9SE5SE6E5E4E5SE7E44E33E4E6E4NE4
1 day agoNE9NE10E8NE9NE7E8E6E5NE4NE3NE6E6NE4E6NE7E7E10E9SE10NE9E9E8
G14
E63
2 days agoSE8SE7E10E9E7SE6S6NE18
G33
S5S7NE4S5E5--N6NE13
G19
CalmE6W4N3NE13N13E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.