Sunday, November18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grapevine, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:26PM Sunday November 18, 2018 10:18 AM CST (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 2:16AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grapevine, TX
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location: 32.96, -97.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 181147
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
547 am cst Sun nov 18 2018

Aviation
12z tafs
the cold front has cleared all of our TAF sites this morning with
northwest winds around 15 kt behind the front and MVFR cigs
prevailing. The low clouds will likely linger for much of the
morning before more significant low level drying can take place.

We should see some improvement by midday into early afternoon with
a cirrus deck lingering into the evening hours. Rain chances will
be confined to areas generally south and east of waco through
tonight.VFR conditions are expected on Monday.

Dunn

Short term issued 301 am cst Sun nov 18 2018
today and tonight
a strong cold front continues to race through north texas early
this morning and was located along a line from near paris to
corsicana to killeen around 2 am. Temperatures quickly fall into
the upper 30s and lower 40s behind the front with gusty northwest
winds. A thin line of showers developed along the front and low
rain chances will continue through this morning mainly along and
just ahead of the front. The front should clear all of our area
shortly after sunrise. Extensive low cloud cover persists well
back to the west and skies will generally be cloudy through the
day with temperatures remaining in the 40s. There could be some
breaks in the cloud cover across our western counties around
midday as strong drying aloft occurs, but a thicker band of cirrus
is expected to overspread the area into the afternoon.

Tonight will be cold particularly across the northwest where the
center of the surface high will be located. Skies should become
mostly clear across the northwest allowing temperatures to fall to
or just below freezing. More extensive cloud cover will persist
from the metroplex southward into central texas. Temperatures in
these areas will remain in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Weak
isentropic ascent will persist across our far southern counties
overnight and we could see some continued light rain in these
areas into the early morning hours on Monday.

Dunn

Long term issued 301 am cst Sun nov 18 2018
Monday onward
Monday will be off to a cool and mostly dry start in wake of
Sunday's cold front with gradual clearing occurring from north to
south. The exception will be across our far southeastern counties
where some isentropic upglide will still be occurring in the
850-700mb layer above the steeply sloped frontal boundary. This
should contribute to continued cloudiness and lingering rain
chances roughly south of a killeen palestine line into the day.

Meanwhile, the elongated trough axis currently draped from
colorado to wisconsin will continue drifting southward towards the
southern plains. This will help deliver a secondary shot of drier
low-level air as a strong surface high builds across the central
us in its wake. The arrival of drier air will shunt all remaining
moisture south of the area, bringing an end to any remaining rain
chances by Monday afternoon evening. Following a cool and cloudy
Sunday, Monday's high temperatures should easily rebound into the
50s, especially across north texas where there will be less cloud
cover. High pressure and shortwave ridging aloft will prevail into
Tuesday with a continued warming trend. Clear skies, dry air, and
abundant sunshine should allow temperatures to return to the
upper 50s and low 60s area-wide.

By Wednesday, a split flow regime is expected to materialize to
our west, with the vigorous southern stream shortwave forecast to
track over the area later Wednesday afternoon. Model solutions
have been quite erratic regarding rain chances with this feature,
primarily due to inconsistencies with handling moisture recovery.

The 00z suite of guidance is on the drier side since guidance was
slower to turn low-level wind fields to the south. As a result,
the GFS is holding pws around 0.75" or less through Wednesday
with the greatest moisture confined to south texas and the gulf.

With strong lift expected to track overhead, this should still
result in at least some scattered rainfall activity, although
coverage would be fairly meager. The ECMWF remains a slightly
wetter solution, and will maintain some pops for the entire
forecast area through Wednesday afternoon when ascent will be
maximized over the area. There should be very limited instability
present during this time, so thunder would be scarce and confined
to central texas where there will be some slightly steeper lapse
rates. Otherwise, activity should consist of showers or lighter
stratiform rain. Hopefully model moisture fields will come into
better agreement over the next couple of days so that the rain
coverage expectations can be refined. Folks with holiday travel
interests on Wednesday afternoon or evening will want to keep an
eye on the forecast.

The aformentioned shortwave is forecast to depart the region
Wednesday night, taking any rain chances with it. This will mean a
dry thanksgiving forecast for the time being with some lingering
clouds throughout the day. Temperatures should be fairly close to
normal, mostly in the 60s or upper 50s. From this point on, model
solutions and ensembles diverge substantially. While there is
general agreement that a potent tough will dig southward along the
pacific coast before the end of the week, models are all over the
map for how to handle this energy after it moves onshore. The
latest ECMWF stands in stark contrast to previous runs, digging
this energy much farther south and into the southern plains by
Friday. This would quickly pull a surge of moisture northward
through the southern us and result in fairly widespread showers
and storms heading into the weekend. The GFS remains a few hundred
miles farther north with the strongest energy, thereby limiting
precip chances for our forecast area. I'll show some low pops on
Friday for now with very low confidence in the forecast beyond
day 5. It does at least look like another cold frontal passage
can be expected sometime in the day 6-8 time period, with a
progressive pattern and broad synoptic scale troughing forecast to
continue through next weekend.

-stalley

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 48 36 57 39 60 0 5 5 0 0
waco 52 38 58 40 63 5 10 5 0 0
paris 48 34 54 37 58 5 5 5 0 0
denton 46 32 57 37 60 0 5 5 0 0
mckinney 47 33 55 38 59 0 5 5 0 0
dallas 49 38 58 39 60 0 5 5 0 0
terrell 50 36 57 38 61 5 5 5 0 0
corsicana 52 38 55 39 61 10 10 5 0 0
temple 52 39 56 40 63 10 20 20 5 0
mineral wells 46 33 59 35 60 0 5 5 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX4 mi25 minNNW 1410.00 miOvercast40°F33°F77%1026.4 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX13 mi29 minNW 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast39°F35°F87%1026.7 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX13 mi25 minWNW 1310.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1027.7 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX14 mi25 minNW 1410.00 miOvercast41°F35°F79%1026.9 hPa
Fort Worth, Meacham International Airport, TX17 mi25 minNW 1310.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1027.4 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX17 mi25 minNNW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast38°F30°F76%1027.3 hPa
Grand Prairie, Grand Prairie Municipal Airport, TX18 mi28 minNW 710.00 miOvercast41°F33°F76%1027.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Naval Air Station, TX20 mi86 minNW 1510.00 miOvercast41°F33°F73%1025.4 hPa
Arlington Municipal Airport, TX20 mi25 minNW 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast41°F36°F82%1027.1 hPa
Dallas, Redbird Airport, TX22 mi25 minNW 129.00 mi40°F35°F83%1026.5 hPa

Wind History from DFW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13
G17
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G19
S14S13S12S11S6SE7SE6S5SE5S6W6NW17NW17NW14NW15NW17NW14NW17NW13NW14N14
1 day agoW5SW6S5S13S10S12S9S9S7S8S6S7S9S8S9S7S8S8S4S6S6S5S8S13
2 days agoS5S8S10S9S12
G18
S10S10S8S7S7S9S8S9S6S6S7S5S4S7S6S4S3SW3SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.