Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 1:04 PM   Moonset 1:47 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1217 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Tonight - S winds 5 kt. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Fri night - S winds 10 kt. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun night - NW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms.Mon night - N winds 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 75 degrees.

AMZ300 1217 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will prevail today and persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 161635 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1235 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will prevail today and persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
At 1230 PM, visible satellite indicated that a field of shallow cumulus clouds has developed along and north of the Savannah River. The 12Z observed KCHS sounding showed a significant inversion at H65 with CIN in excess of 300 J/kg. Surprisingly, the latest run of the HRRR showed a few showers developing over the CHS Tri-county late this afternoon. However, based on the observed profile, the forecast will remain dry this afternoon.
Temperatures are on track to peak in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.

Tonight: Quiet weather conditions are expected overnight with sfc high pressure in place and a mid-lvl ridge axis placed across the Southeast United States aloft. Conditions should be favorable for radiational cooling, with winds decoupling early under clear skies and remaining light/calm for several hours away from the immediate coast for much of the night. Late night, some guidance suggests an increase in high clouds from the west, suggesting low temps to occur a few hours prior to daybreak before slightly warming as cloud cover increases aloft. In general, lows should range between the low-mid 60s well inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday: Zonal flow aloft will develop through the daylight hours while a positively tilted mid level trough is positioned over ArkLaTex. At the surface high pressure will retreat out into the Atlantic waters. To the west of the region a low pressure system is forecast to be located in the vicinity of Oklahoma. This feature will slowly progress towards the local forecast area through the day. Generally a quiet weather day is expected across the region, with high temperatures reaching into the mid to upper 80s. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day ahead of the approaching disturbance. By sunset isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far inland counties. A warm front is forecast to lift north through the region overnight Friday into Saturday, with PWATs increasing to around 2" by Saturday morning. Precipitation coverage will continue to increase through the overnight hours. Between the rainfall and cloud cover overnight low temperatures will be rather mild, only reaching into the upper 60s far inland with low to mid 70s elsewhere.

Saturday and Sunday: Saturday will start with a warm front to the north of the forecast area, putting the region solidly within the warm sector. A cold front will slowly approach from the west, with increasing precipitation chances as the day progresses. Saturday afternoon numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict about 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE, which in the presence of 40+ knots of shear could produce a strong to maybe severe thunderstorm on Saturday afternoon. The mid level trough is expected to be rather slow moving and still positioned over the forecast area on Sunday. Models have come into agreement that the an additional surface low pressure system is expected to develop off the NC coastline. A lull in showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday night, with another round of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, associated with the low pressure. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday are forecast to reach into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
By Monday morning the aforementioned mid level trough and associated surface low pressure system will likely be positioned off the NC/SC coastline. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, especially along the SC coastal counties. Additionally, with the positioning of the low there is the possibility of a wedge type set up. Some guidance has hinted that high temperatures on Monday may only reach into the upper 70s across southeastern SC. The current forecast does not reflect temperatures this low and instead is a blend showing low to mid 80s. Model trends will need to be watched. After Monday ridging will build in aloft along with high pressure at the surface. Through the middle of the week the forecast features minimal rain chances and warming temperatures, with some locations reaching into the low 90s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Friday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to all terminals on Saturday and Sunday as a low pressure system impacts the region.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: Weak cold air advection in wake of a departing cold front will allow west-northwest winds to gust up to 15 kts early morning, but a gradual decrease in wind speeds is expected by mid morning as high pressure settles across local waters and results in the pressure gradient weakening. Winds will gradually turn more southerly this afternoon, remaining around 10 kt or less for the rest of the day. Seas will subside throughout the day as well, generally from 2-4 ft to 1-3 ft, remaining largest across offshore Georgia waters and beyond 15 NM from the Charleston County coast. Overnight, conditions remain very quiet across local waters while high pressure prevails. In general, south winds will be no higher than 5-10 kt while seas range between 1-2 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions through the period are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. A cold front will push through the region on Saturday, shifting winds more to the W and surging slightly to around 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas are expected to build on Saturday as well, increasing to 3 to 4 ft.
By Monday winds will shift to the NW, generally around 10 knots with seas diminishing to around 1 to 2 ft. High pressure will build in thereafter.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Back River Reservoir
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Thu -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:30 PM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:35 PM EDT     -1.47 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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