Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McClellanville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 25, 2017 2:22 PM EDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:16AMMoonset 7:13PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 128 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..W winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt...diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas can be higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 128 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will build over the region today and will linger through this weekend. A weak cold front is expected to slowly slide over the region early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McClellanville, SC
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location: 33, -79.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251524
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1124 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Synopsis
A vigorous upper level disturbance will bring showers and some
thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which may contain small
hail and strong gusty winds. High pressure will build across the
area tonight and Friday and persist into the weekend, bringing
dry weather and increasing heat. A cold front will reach into
the carolinas early next week, finally moving off shore by mid
week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1100 am Thursday... A vigorous shortwave rounding the base
of the trough and its associated cold pool will bring a round
of showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon. Temps at 500
mb will be around minus 18 deg c this afternoon. At the same
time, temps at the surface will be in the 70s. Lapse rates will
continue to steepen. In addition, there is considerable dry air
in the mid levels. This environment will be conducive for at
least scattered showers and some thunderstorms this afternoon
and we are already seeing convection blossoming upstream across
south carolina. Any of the convection will have the potential
to produce strong gusty winds and small hail and we have added
this verbiage to the gridded forecast. It is not impossible for
an isolated severe thunderstorm to develop as well. The gradient
winds will be gusty from the SW at 20 to 30 mph. Loss of heating
late day and passage of the strong mid level feature will end
the risk for convection. Skies will clear and winds will
diminish this eve. These conditions along with dry air will
allow for the coolest night in a couple weeks, upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Weak high pressure centered over
florida will extend north across the forecast area Friday, then
will be suppressed to the south as a slow moving cold front
drifts south towards the region. A dry column and lack of
forcing will make for a rain-free start to the memorial day
weekend, at least up until Saturday night. For overnight
Saturday have introduced slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms with the front lingering to our north. Confidence
not high that we will see precip in that time-frame though, as
guidance not in good accord with frontal placement.

Temperatures will gradually warm through the period, with highs
in the mid 80s for Friday and right around 90 for Friday.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Expect high pressure to hold with
plenty of dry air and subsidence in the mid levels to maintain a
cap on convection through early Sunday. The ECMWF is more
bullish with a digging northern stream shortwave pushing a cold
front south and east toward the carolinas on Sunday and
suppressing ridge farther south. This could lead to greater
potential for clouds and showers and slightly less warm temps,
but for now will lean more toward the GFS and keep a more
optimistic forecast for sunnier and warmer weather on Sunday. If
gfs forecast holds, mid level heights will continue to rise
through the weekend as ridge builds up from the south and temps
will rise up around 90 again on Sunday.Overall confidence is
lower through early next week as a slow moving cold front
reaches into the carolinas and finally moves off the coast on
Tuesday or possibly not until wed. Therefore should see
increasing chc of showers Sun aftn through mon. Temps will
continue to rise well into the 80s Mon through wed. A moist
summertime like air mass will keep overnight lows

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z Thursday... Good confidenceVFR through the TAF valid
period for all terminals. Forecast uncertainty revolves around
possible convection this afternoon as an upper disturbance
passes overhead. Have added vcts all sites for a few hours this
afternoon to signal this possibility. SW winds this afternoon
will be breezy gusty, with gusts up around 25 mph or more.

Extended outlook... Localized MVFR conditions are possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons
and evenings.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1100 am Thursday... Strong small craft advisory conditions
ongoing across the waters. Deep mixing will allow for sustained
sw winds of 20 to 25 kt with frequent gusts to 30 kt today. Winds
will veer to a more westerly direction tonight as the trough
swings offshore. Seas of 5 to 8 ft today will begin to get
knocked down by offshore trajectories tonight and most of the
waters should be below small craft advisory thresholds before
fri morning. Isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms
may contain small hail along with gusty winds.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Expect generally W to SW winds through
the short term as high pressure builds in from the west. Seas of
3 to 5 ft Friday morning for our nc waters will subside as the
gradient relaxes, possibly ramping up again Saturday night as a
weak front inches down from the north. Seas for our sc waters
will be a bit more moderate and should not exceed the 2 to 4 ft
range through the short term.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure to the south will
maintain a SW return flow 10 to 15 mph through much of the
period. Seas between 2 and 4 ft will rise up to 3 to 5 ft on
Sunday with increasing winds up to 15 to 20 kts as a cold front
makes its way toward the carolinas. Tightened gradient flow
between slow moving cold front to the west and high pressure to
the south and east may push winds up to 15 to 20 kts through
early next week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for scz054-
056.

Nc... Beach hazards statement until 9 pm edt this evening for ncz106-
108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Near term... Rjd
short term... Rek
long term... Rgz
aviation... Rek


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 20 mi75 min W 19 G 25 77°F 77°F1005.5 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi98 min WSW 13 72°F 1004 hPa51°F
CHTS1 34 mi65 min WNW 11 G 18 74°F 78°F1006.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 35 mi83 min WSW 13 G 17 72°F 1006.8 hPa (-0.0)53°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 37 mi43 min WSW 25 G 31 72°F 75°F1006.4 hPa57°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC22 mi28 minWSW 13 G 2610.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity72°F51°F50%1005.4 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC24 mi28 minW 12 G 2110.00 miFair75°F53°F47%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW6SW10
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S4CalmCalmSE4SE3S4SW6SW5SW4SW5SW6W5SW5S3CalmSW5SW7SW8S8S9
G15
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2 days agoS10S8S11
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SW5CalmCalmN5NE3CalmCalmE4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W8W6W7SW8S8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romain, South Carolina
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Cape Romain
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Thu -- 01:58 AM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:54 AM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     6.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1-0-0.40.11.22.73.94.754.63.62.30.9-0.3-0.8-0.40.92.64.25.56.165.23.9

Tide / Current Tables for Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina
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Five Fathom Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:07 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:10 AM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:16 PM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:38 PM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.40.1-0.4-0.112.53.84.75.24.942.71.2-0.1-0.8-0.60.62.34.15.56.36.45.74.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.