Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McClellanville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 7:56PM Sunday April 22, 2018 5:52 PM EDT (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:29AMMoonset 12:50AM Illumination 51% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 356 Pm Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Monday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Monday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..E winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming se 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 10 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 7 to 9 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thu..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 356 Pm Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will remain northeast of the forecast area tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the west. The low will stay west of the area on Monday, then move up the east coast through mid week. Weak high pressure will prevail before a cold front crosses the area late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McClellanville, SC
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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222004
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
404 pm edt Sun apr 22 2018

Synopsis
A slow moving low pressure system will cross the southeastern
u.S. And produce beneficial rains of 2 to 4 inches Monday
through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday will
bounce back to near normal for the rest of the week. A cold
front may drop down into the carolinas Wednesday night. Another
area of low pressure may affect the area on Thursday followed
by high pressure on Friday with below normal temperatures
heading into the weekend.

Near term through Monday
As of 330 pm Sunday... Surface ridge is maintaining influence across
the carolinas at the moment. Meanwhile areas of low pressure are
established across the ms valley supported by the old upper low
across northern arkansas. As low pressure drifts east the weather
will change drastically across the carolinas during Monday. A
strengthening onshore wind will support marginal wind advisory
criteria along the coastal zones while advecting a lot of moisture
into the region. In fact, the precipitable water should approach 1.7
inches during Monday as conditions come together for a widespread
heavy rain event. Increasing low-level convergence along with and
excellent divergence aloft will create strong upward vertical
velocity. As a result of the column saturation and strong lift we
anticipate 2-4 inches across the forecast area. While surface based
instability is lacking the strong dynamics warrants mentioning
isolated embedded thunderstorms as well. While some flood prone poor
drainage areas may receive flooding do not think flood impacts will
be widespread enough for a flood watch at this time.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night
As of 330 pm Sunday... As the area of low pressure across tn ky fills
the low progged to be across ga sc will become dominant and lift
northeast across the carolinas during Tuesday. As the low moves
northeast the strong axis of onshore winds will shift into eastern
nc by Tuesday morning. The axis of heaviest rainfall will also shift
northward as well during Tuesday with drier mid-level air pushing in
from the south and southwest. Pops will trend lower by later in the
day with 20-30 pops lingering for Tuesday night. Followed a blend of
mav met number for temperatures. Will need to keep an eye on the
high tide Monday night into early Tuesday morning as well - more on
the potential for coastal flooding below

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Sunday... As one area of low pressure lifts off to
the northeast away from the carolinas on wed, another one will
follow behind it rotating around the main upper trough in a
fairly progressive pattern. The winds will veer around on wed
on the back end of the initial low as it pulls away and may see
a weak boundary or front drop down into the carolinas Wed night
into early thurs. The westerly downslope flow on Wed should
combine with mixed Sun and clouds to produce temps close to 80
on wed.

The second low will track down from the upper midwest, becoming
an open wave as it digs down into the lower mississippi valley
by thurs. The GFS and ECMWF both show this low moving northeast
through the coastal carolinas thurs night into fri, but the gfs
is deeper and showing greater QPF and winds overnight thurs. By
Friday, this system will lift off to the northeast with a decent
day in store. The GFS and ECMWF differ quite a bit heading into
the weekend with the GFS showing a much drier forecast. Either
way, a trough will move across the east coast producing below
normal temps through much of the late week period.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
As of 18z... General onshore flow will persist through Monday as low
pressure slowly drifts across the mid-mississippi valley. ExpectVFR
conditions through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening, then ceilings lowering to MVFR late tonight as rainfall
overspreads the terminals from SW to ne. Precip should be on the
doorstep of kilm by 18z mon.

Extended outlook... MVFR and possible ifr will persist Monday night
into early Tuesday associated with widespread rainfall. Wed through
Thursday expectVFR. MVFR possible Thursday night with a cold front,
then clearing Friday.

Marine
Near term through Monday ...

as of 330 pm Sunday... High pressure centered just east of delmarva
will maintain an onshore flow across the adjacent coastal waters
through tonight. As low pressure meanders along the ms valley
through Monday the pressure gradient between the high and low will
allow the onshore fetch to increase with marginal sustained gales
becoming likely. In regards to the small craft advisory we have moved
the start time earlier, and upgraded the gale watch to a gale warning.

Seas should have no problem exceeding 10 feet given the size,
orientation, and strength of the fetch. Numerous showers expected to
develop by Monday, especially across the southern waters initially.

Embedded isolated thunderstorms are also possible.

Short term Monday night through Tuesday night ...

as of 330 pm Sunday... Gales will continue at the onset of the short
term period with complex areas of low pressure from tn ky to sc ga.

The axis of strong winds will gradually shift across the waters off
eastern nc during Tuesday while the residual seas will remain high
through the day. At some point during Tuesday the gale warning will
need to be lowered in favor of another small craft advisory until
seas subside later in the day. By Tuesday night, the sc ga low will
have translated to northeast nc southeast va with a much weakened
pressure gradient in place overnight. Seas will be highest Tuesday
morning, then gradually subside during the afternoon. Seas will
continue to subside Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Winds will diminish as they shift around
from on shore to off shore Wed on the back end of low pressure
system, as it lifts off to the northeast. A dry cold front may
drop into the waters Wed night into thurs with winds shifting
around to a more n-ne direction on thurs. Fairly low confidence
forecast thurs into Fri as another area of low pressure may
affect the waters.

As the winds shift around to off shore and lighten on wed, seas
will subside. Seas should be 3 to 5 ft Wed morning dropping down
to 2 to 4 ft by thurs morning. Winds and seas will be dependent
on strength and track of low pressure late thurs into fri, but
for now have left them in the 3 to 5 ft range, although the wna
shows potential for SCA conditions early fri.

Climate
As of 300 pm Sunday...

meteorological spring began on march 1st, and temperatures since
then have averaged significantly below normal. This has been
especially true for low temperatures which are running among the
coolest values observed up through this point in the year.

Here are some statistics on low temperatures since march 1st.

Wilmington, nc
coldest average daily low temps march 1 through april 21
rank avg temp year
1 41.0 1915
2 41.6 1960
3 42.2 1971
4 42.8 1962
4 42.8 2018 <--
6 43.1 1926
6 43.1 1981
wilmington, nc
most number of march + april nights with lows <=40
rank # of nights year
1 34 1915
2 26 1960
3 25 1962
4 24 1971
5 23 2018 <--
5 23 1996
5 23 1983
5 23 1981
5 23 1969
florence, sc
coldest average daily low temps march 1 through april 21
rank avg temp year
1 38.8 1966
2 40.0 1960
3 41.8 1950
4 42.1 1971
5 42.4 1962
6 42.6 1996
7 43.0 2014
8 43.3 2013
9 43.5 2018 <--
10 43.8 1984
10 43.8 1956
12 43.9 2005
florence, sc
most number of march + april nights with lows <=40
rank # of nights year
1 30 1966
2 28 1950
3 27 1960
4 25 1971
5 24 2013
5 24 1962
7 22 2014
7 22 1996
9 21 2005
9 21 1992
9 21 1983
9 21 1956
13 20 2018 <--
13 20 1987

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm Sunday... The strengthening onshore fetch may lead to
some minor ocean overwash, especially with high tide late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Confidence is higher with minor coastal
flooding for the nc coastal waters when the axis of strongest winds
are coincident with that particular high tide. If current trends
continue then a coastal flood advisory may be needed late Monday
night. Minor flooding may also extend into the downtown
wilmington battleship area with the same tide. Fortunately,
regarding astronomical influences the moon is at the first quarter
phase.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Wind advisory from 10 am to 8 pm edt Monday for scz054-056.

Nc... Wind advisory from 1 pm Monday to 5 am edt Tuesday for ncz106-
108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am edt Monday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Gale warning from 10 am Monday to noon edt Tuesday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Near term... Srp
short term... Srp
long term... Rgz
aviation... Srp crm
climate... Tra
tides coastal flooding... Srp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 20 mi45 min ENE 12 G 16 65°F 64°F1024.2 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi68 min ENE 12 65°F 1025 hPa58°F
CHTS1 34 mi53 min ENE 13 G 14 68°F 65°F1023.9 hPa (-1.3)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 35 mi53 min ENE 14 G 15 65°F 1024.5 hPa (-1.3)60°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 37 mi43 min E 14 G 18 69°F 67°F1023.6 hPa56°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC22 mi58 minE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F53°F60%1025.4 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC24 mi78 minE 710.00 miA Few Clouds70°F55°F60%1024 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10
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E8E8E3E4E3E3E4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmNE4NE4E8E9
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1 day agoE7SE8E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4NE3CalmCalmN3E11
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2 days agoW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romain, South Carolina
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Cape Romain
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Sun -- 01:24 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:03 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.75.25.14.53.52.41.30.60.30.71.62.63.44.14.34.13.42.51.50.70.30.51.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina
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Five Fathom Creek entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM EDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:19 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.85.45.44.942.71.60.70.40.61.42.53.44.14.54.43.82.81.70.80.30.41.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.