Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McClellanville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 7:19PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 3:34 AM EDT (07:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 311 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of tstms in the evening. A slight chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. A slight chance of showers. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 311 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will extend south across the region into early next week as hurricane maria moves northwest to near the bahamas this weekend and then likely north just off the southeast u.s. Coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McClellanville, SC
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location: 33, -79.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 200643
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
243 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Disturbances aloft will bring isolated showers today through
Friday. High pressure will build in from the north for the
remainder of the week while jose spins nearly stationary off the
mid-atlantic coast. Dangerous hurricane maria will bring
increasing southeast swell and strengthening rip currents to the
carolinas beginning late week. Maria is expected to move north
and offshore of the carolinas early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 3 am Wednesday... The westerly flow aloft will transition
to a bit of troughing later today and extend into Thursday
morning. At the surface a weak trough will move across this
evening which may kick off a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Guidance is not overly agressive and some model
suites show little to nothing. I have maintained the slight
change pops. The best forcing appears to occur around 03 utc
this evening. Highs today will tack on a degree or two from
yesterdays readings as the airmass continues to modify.

Overnight lows Thursday morning will also add a degree or two
with some areas remaining above 70 degrees.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
As of 3 am Wednesday... Amorphously broad high pressure
dominates eastern CONUS during the short term, with an upper
trough extending SW from jose off of the new england coast and
distant hurricane maria emerging from the carribbean. Model
soundings show a moderately unstable column developing both
afternoons with p W amounts in the 1.5 inch range. The moisture
will mainly be confined below 700 mb, but this will be enough
for isolated to widely scattered convection to develop both
afternoons and into the evenings. Ill-timed upper disturbances
hinted at in the guidance, and this could extend convection into
the overnight hours. Given limited moisture depth and
unfavorable wind profiles do not expect strong or severe
convection. Temperatures will remain around or above climo
through the short term.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 3 pm Monday... At onset Friday jose will be meandering off
the new england mid-atlantic coasts while maria approaches the
eastern bahamas with weak high pressure in place across the
carolinas. Weak high pressure will remain across the carolinas
early next week as maria moves northward off the southeast u.S.

Coast. We will obviously need to keep a very close eye on
maria's progression, however in the least we expect very
hazardous surf conditions as large swells impact the coast. Held
onto a small pop for primarily sc areas during Friday, then no
pops thereafter (ultimately dependent on maria's track early
next week). Favored a blend of mex ece highs lows through the
long term period.

Aviation 07z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 06z... ExpectVFR conditions through the period. Some
regional sites are showing modest fog formation and I did add a
tempo group to lbt for MVFR this morning to address. There may
also be a few isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening but coverage and confidence is not sufficient to include
in the current forecast.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of ifr conditions will be in the 0900-1200z timeframe each
morning.

Marine
Near term through Wednesday ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... A weak pressure field will continue to
reside over the area and waters with a continuation of light
wind fields. A light west to southwest flow of ten knots or less
will continue through most of the day. Speeds may briefly
increase this evening by a couple of knots as a surface trough
moves across. Significant seas will continue to be 2-3 feet.

Short term Thursday through Friday night ...

as of 3 am Wednesday... Although a broad area of high pressure
over the coastal zones will keep winds light through the period,
generally around 10 kts, expect that swell from very distant
hurricane maria will bring seas up to 3 to 5 ft by Friday night.

Until then, seas will stay in the 2 to 4 ft range.

Long term Friday through Sunday ...

as of 3 pm Monday... Very hazardous maritime conditions expected
during the long term period as large waves emanate outward from
maria. At this time maria is likely expected to remain offshore
as it moves northward from the bahamas, but all marine
interests should closely monitor the progression of this storm
given forecast track uncertainty at this time. Winds on Friday
will be around 10 knots from the northeast to east with similar
conditions Saturday. Speeds will increase during Sunday out of
the northeast as the peripheral circulation of maria begins to
come into the picture. Wavewatch iii guidance indicates
significant swells impacting the coastal waters, especially sat
into sun. Very steep waves are possible, especially near inlet
entrances during the falling tide.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rek
near term... Shk
short term... Rek
long term... 99
aviation... Shk
marine... 99 rek shk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 20 mi86 min WSW 7.8 G 12 77°F 80°F1015 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi109 min W 1 71°F 1015 hPa69°F
CHTS1 34 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 80°F1015.2 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 35 mi34 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 77°F 1015.7 hPa (+0.0)74°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 37 mi34 min WSW 5.8 G 9.7 80°F 82°F1014.6 hPa (+0.0)70°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC22 mi39 minWSW 310.00 miFair66°F66°F100%1015.6 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC24 mi59 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist72°F71°F100%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW8NW7NW9
G14
W8N5NW6NW6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N5N6N7N3SE8SE6SE4E4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN4N4N5CalmN4N8N10
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NE8N8E5NE4E4E4E4E7N3NE4N3N4N5NE5N4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romain, South Carolina
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Cape Romain
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:17 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:31 AM EDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:35 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:46 PM EDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.90.700.21.22.53.84.95.65.64.93.82.410.100.82.13.54.75.55.75.24.2

Tide / Current Tables for Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina
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Five Fathom Creek entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:47 AM EDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:45 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:02 PM EDT     5.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.30.90.10.112.33.74.95.75.95.44.32.81.30.2-00.61.93.44.75.665.74.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.