Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McClellanville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:05 AM EDT (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 1:04AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 321 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt, decreasing to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 321 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. Atlantic high pressure will persist to the east while a surface trough lingers inland through the weekend. A cold front is expected to drop into the area Monday night, bringing somewhat cooler and drier air to the region Tuesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McClellanville, SC
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location: 33, -79.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 210739
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
339 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Borderline heat advisory conditions will occur each afternoon
from today thru the upcoming weekend. Scattered thunderstorms
will also remain in the forecast each day through the weekend as
result of a stalled front in close proximity. A much stronger
cold front for this time of the year will push across the area
early next week, ending the widespread coverage of thunderstorms.

High pressure of canadian origin, will ridge southward and
bring much drier and slightly cooler conditions thru the mid
week period of next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 330 am Thursday... Unseasonably hot weather will continue
through the period. Sunshine will be filtered today by mid and
upper cloudiness; moreso than recent days. Right now this
appears to shave just enough off of highs and the resulting heat
indices that most of the area falls just short of the 105
degree heat advisory criteria. Thunderstorms should play out
fairly similar to yesterday initiating first along the seabreeze
and then widely scattered area wide along old outflow and
differential heating boundaries. Fairly strong instability will
develop by afternoon but the lack of mid level dry air present
yesterday should lessen the damaging wind threat that
materialized yesterday. Even so, some wet downburst could
certainly yield 30-40 mph wind gusts. Convection will give way
to shallower showers overnight that dwindle in areal coverage if
not disappear altogether.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Deep mid to upper low over the upper
midwest thurs eve will be approaching the mississippi valley fri
morning helping to suppress the ridge over the southeast farther
to the south and east. The deep w-sw flow will help drive some
of the enhanced convection and debris clouds along trough toward
the i-95 corridor thurs eve and toward the coast by fri
morning, but expect activity to diminish as the heating of the
day comes to an end into the overnight hours.

As this deep low reaches the mississippi valley early fri, it
begins to lift to the northeast which will help to turn the
flow aloft to the sw. A front that was dipping down toward the
nc va border late thurs will get driven back north in this deep
sw flow, but lingering trough will shift closer to the coast.

Models actually show drier air getting wrapped around into the
central carolinas Fri with best chc of convection closer to the
coast in deeper layer moisture, mainly east of i-95 corridor,
especially localized along sea breeze boundary Fri aftn. Pcp
water values up over 2 inches late thurs will begin to drop down
near 1.6 inches west of i-95 corridor through fri. Overall, the
latest model runs keep frontal boundary far enough north and
best upper level forcing to the west and northwest of local area
through the period.

As for temps, expect above normal temps to continue with highs
in the 90s on fri. A bit of drier air will move into the
western portions of forecast area thurs aftn and closer to the
coast, greater cloud cover and TSTM activity should prevent most
places from reaching heat advisory criteria, leaving most
places with heat index values just under 105.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Low pressure should be in the eastern
great lakes by the start of the period, with the upper low
opening up as it lifts NE into SE canada during the weekend. The
hot upper ridge will be centered just to our S and retrograde
west through the period. Upper trough will swing by largely to
our N early next week, and models are indicating this will be
enough to drive a cold front south across the eastern carolinas
late Mon into tue. The models show the front making it well S of
the area as an area of high pressure to our N begins to assert
a southward push. It would not surprise me if the front gets
hung up closer to the fa than current projections as they have a
tendency to drive these fronts too far S during the summer
months.

Will show the highest pops Mon and Mon night, up to likely. For
the weekend, will show scattered coverage with initiation along
the piedmont trough and seabreeze. Presently, will show much
lower pops tue-wed, providing the drier air and subsidence can
build this far south.

The heat and humidity will make it uncomfortable for outdoor
activities this weekend. Highs will be in the mid and upper 90s
with lower 90s very near the immediate coast. This will result
in heat index values above 100 during the afternoon and early
eve and as high as around 105. Thus, heat advisories may be
required during this time. The heat may still be on into mon,
although a greater coverage of convection may limit the
duration. If drier and slightly cooler air is able to work its
way this far south, Tue and Wed should be much more seasonable
with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and perhaps only mid
80s at the beaches. Lows will be in the 70s and perhaps only as
cool as the mid and upper 70s Sat night and Sun night.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... More in the way of mid level cloud will be present
this TAF cycle. Some predawn fog possible just about area-wide
but the cloud cover present should keep it from dropping below
MVFR. Thunderstorms will initiate along the sea breeze early
afternoon, mainly nc, but then be scattered just about anywhere
through peak heating. Storms diminish around sunset but MVFR
ceilings will linger.

Extended outlook...VFR with possible short duration MVFR
fog or ifr CIGS inland terminals early each morning. Scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely each day with short
duration restrictions possible.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 330 am Thursday... Generally a forecast of persistence at
this point. Southwesterly winds in the 10-15kt range will be
more driven by the heat-fueled piedmont trough as opposed to the
normal warm season atlantic high. Seas will continue to run 2-3
and occasionally 4 ft, being comprised of southwesterly wind
wave and a lesser southeasterly swell component.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Overall expect SW winds 10 to 15 kt
with gusts to 20 kt but as a trough gets pushed toward the
waters thurs night into Fri morning, winds will veer to a more
westerly direction for a brief period. Also, expect a spike in
winds and gusts in afternoon sea breeze, especially close to the
coast. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft most waters.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Ssw to SW winds will remain through
mon. The passage of a cold front near the tail end of the period
may shift the wind direction to the N by Tue morning. Weekend
wind speeds will be up to 15 to 20 kt in association with the
seabreeze circulation and ahead of the piedmont trough with the
strongest winds during the afternoon and eve. Wind speeds may
stay up Sun night as a nocturnal jet develops.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Dch
near term... mbb
short term... Rgz
long term... Rjd
aviation... Ran


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 20 mi58 min WSW 12 G 14 83°F 83°F1009.6 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi81 min W 2.9 80°F 1011 hPa79°F
CHTS1 34 mi48 min WSW 5.1 G 7 82°F 85°F1010.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 35 mi66 min WSW 6 G 7 82°F 1010.9 hPa (-1.5)79°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 37 mi36 min SW 18 G 21 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC22 mi71 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F77°F100%1010.8 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC24 mi91 minN 07.00 miFair79°F78°F100%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW5SW4SW8W9W7SW6W8W4W7W6S9
G14
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SW10S8SW7SW5CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmS3
1 day agoW7W6W5W7W10W7W7W8SW7SW6W6W8S7S9SW8SW9S6SW6SW7SW8SW7SW6W4SW4
2 days agoCalmSW4CalmCalmW3W6W5W5SW5W6W6W6S10S9S8SW4SW5S4SW7SW7SW6SW6SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romain, South Carolina
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Cape Romain
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Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     4.81 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:43 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
33.94.64.84.43.62.51.40.4-00.212.13.24.24.84.94.43.52.41.30.60.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina
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Five Fathom Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     5.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     5.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.83.94.754.842.81.60.600.10.91.93.14.14.95.14.83.92.81.60.70.40.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.