Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
McClellanville, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:20PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:07 PM EST (00:07 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ350 Waters From South Santee River To Edisto Beach Sc Out 20 Nm- 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday evening...
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft. A slight chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 9 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mariners are reminded that winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ300 656 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A series of storm systems will impact the area through mid week with cool and dry high pressure returning by this weekend. A mainly dry cold front could move through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McClellanville, SC
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location: 33, -79.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 122316
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
612 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will lift off to the northeast followed by a
strong cold front crossing the carolinas on Tuesday. Unsettled
conditions will basically persist through early Friday. Cooler
and drier conditions will develop over the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 315 pm Monday... He 18 utc surface analysis is showing the
coastal trough axis is just offshore and will be slowly working it
way westward through the overnight. The 12 utc gfs, NAM and ecmwf
all are showing the boundary well by a sharp temperature gradient
with 2 meter temperatures around 70 on the east side of the boundary
and around 50 to the west side of the boundary.

As a low pressure area forms and runs northward up the boundary the
frontal boundary will be shunted off the coast around 12 utc
Tuesday. This boundary will be the focus of possible thunderstorms
overnight with sfc based capes generally just above 1000 j kg. The
high resolution wrf-arw and wrf-nam are showing the high CAPE close
to the coast and generally from brunswick county northward. The 12
km NAM extends the warm are farther inland than there higher
resolution cousins. The bulk shear will maximize after 06 utc thus
there is an increase in the chance of a thunderstorm will damaging
winds and a possible tornado.

The deep moisture has entered the area as widespread rain is
detected just off the coast. Precipitable waters of around 2"+ will
stream over the region. Models are showing 1 to 2.5 inches of rain
through Tuesday afternoon. With the 2" of rain expected mainly
northwest of a florence to elizabethtown line which matches up with
the trough axis western most position.

As the low pressure moves up the boundary after 06 utc, this
boundary will shift to off the coast and the heavier rain should
shift off the coast but not until Tuesday.

Temperatures overnight will be from the mid to upper 60s east of the
trough axis and lower to mid 50s to the west. Uncertainty is high as
the exact location of the trough is not certain.

Monday's maximum temperatures will range from the lower 70s at the
coast to the upper 50s inland.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 315 pm Monday... In the mid-levels the area will continue in
the southwesterly flow as a cut-off low breaks off the main tough
axis centered over hudson bay and the cut-off low moves to the great
state of arkansas by Wednesday night. With this pattern, the deep
moisture will be available throughout. In this period the main front
will be off the coast and cold air damming we reestablish itself so
the period will continue to have chance of precipitation with the
best chance Wednesday night as isentropic lift increase again over
the high pressure damming up against the mountains. High
temperatures will remain below normal with cloud cover, & cooler
air. Lows will be from around to the upper 40s with a 50 degree
temperatures on the beaches.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 315 pm Monday... Extended guidance is stable with regards to
the storm system Thursday, which is really the only system of
note for our area during the period. Mid level low pressure will
be ejecting out of the tennessee valley with good diffluence
aloft with lower level isentropic lift teaming up to bring
another decent rainfall event to the area. The GFS hints at some
dry air intrusion wrapping around the system while the ecmwf
keeps conditions a bit more saturated. By Friday the system is
long gone with a west to occasionally northwest mid level flow
ensuing. Surface high pressure will move across the area through
Saturday with a reinforcing dry cold front later in the
weekend. Overall temperatures are not too far from climatology,
a little on the cool side early Saturday however.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 00z... Front has moved onshore at the coastal terminals with
southeast flow. Wedge will hold inland through the overnight hours.

By 06z, a deepening low and vort MAX will move through the region.

Convection will be on the increase, especially along the coast with
gusty winds possible and thunder. Tuesday, winds will shift to the
west, however ceilings and visibilities will remain ifr due to a
warm frontal regime. Ifr conditions may break around the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr continuing through Tuesday evening as a
train of low pressure systems bring unsettled weather through
Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 315 pm Monday... Winds have veered to the southeast at 20 to 25
knots as the coastal trough has shifted to the coast and will move
inland overnight. Seas have increased to 5 feet at the near-shore
buoys and 7 feet at frying pan shoals. As a low pressure center
rides up the coastal trough front overnight the winds will increase
slightly and will veer to the southwest and weaken 15 to 20 knots by
sunrise. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 feet north of little river and
around 6 feet to the south. Thus a small craft advisory will
continue for all the waters.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 315 pm Monday... At 12 utc Tuesday and low along front will
have shifted north and the northwest to northerly flow will slowly
shift the front off the coast and it will move well offshore on
Wednesday. As the low shifts north it will deepen which will bring
in cold high pressure and a strong northeast winds of 25 knots will
increase on Wednesday. There is a small window where the winds and
seas will be below small craft values on Tuesday but will return on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seas will build back to 6 to 8 feet
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 315 pm Sunday... Northeast winds will be in place much of the day
Thursday as a storm system moves across well inland. The front
associated with the system will turn winds to the northwest late in
the day and this direction will persist basically through the
remainder of the period. Winds speeds will be somewhat elevated via
the strength of the storm system gradient initially and decent cold
air advection over warmer waters later. Expect 15-20 knots Thursday
and Friday with 10-15 knots Saturday. Some higher seas will be
around Thursday likely eclipsing small craft criteria dropping back
slowly with the fetch change and decrease in wind speeds Friday and
Saturday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Tuesday for
amz250-252-254- 256.

Synopsis... Shk
near term... Rh
short term... Rh
long term... Shk
aviation... 43
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 20 mi59 min NE 3.9 65°F 66°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi142 min NW 8 56°F 1019 hPa56°F
CHTS1 34 mi37 min N 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 66°F1017.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 35 mi67 min NNE 5.1 G 6 62°F 1018.2 hPa (-1.2)62°F
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 37 mi27 min SSE 21 G 25 73°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC22 mi72 minN 07.00 miOvercast54°F51°F94%1019.3 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC24 mi92 minN 03.00 miLight Rain55°F55°F100%1018.6 hPa

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Last 24hrN5N4NE4N4N6N7N4N4N3NE5NE6N6N4NE7NE7NE6N4N5N4N6NW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoN4N7N5N4N5N5N5N5N5N7N7N5N7N7N6N8N9N6NE6N3N5N6CalmN5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3NW8NW7NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Romain, South Carolina
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Cape Romain
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Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:42 AM EST     5.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:59 PM EST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:51 PM EST     4.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.81.91.10.70.81.62.73.74.555.14.73.92.91.91.20.91.222.93.74.14.3

Tide / Current Tables for Five Fathom Creek entrance, South Carolina
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Five Fathom Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:25 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     5.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     0.94 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:07 PM EST     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43.12.11.30.80.81.52.63.74.65.15.45.14.33.32.21.40.91.21.92.93.74.24.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.