Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:53 AM   Moonset 6:57 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1246 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A slight chance of a shower or tstm late. Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - NW winds 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Sat night - SW winds 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.

AMZ300 1246 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCHS 071734 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 134 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Midday update: Quiet conditions across the region thus far. Some Cu development has taken shape and getting a little congested along the marine boundary across the Charleston tri-county although Cu is fairly flat. A few showers are still possible although chances are not great.

Previous discussion...
Morning composite analysis reveals short-wave troughing moving off the Carolina coast along with a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms just north of our area. Short-wave ridging is just upstream. Surface high pressure remains draped from the southeast states/Florida Peninsula eastward into the Atlantic.

Upper level short-wave ridging will be gradually building into the southeast through the afternoon and overhead tonight.
Unlike Monday, we will be lacking any substantial larger scale forcing mechanisms. However, forecast convective parameters are not to dissimilar to Monday with MLCAPE values building to 1000-1500 J/Kg (potentially a touch higher along the marine boundary and PWAT values running 1.4-1.6 inches. But slightly stronger mid level flow and 0-6KM shear around 25 knots and DCAPE values in excess of 800 J/Kg. Again, we are lacking a larger scale forcing mechanism but there may be enough low level convergence along the marine boundary to kick off a few showers/thunderstorms this afternoon mainly along the coast. We have tweaked the forecast to reflect that idea...expanding slight chance pops just a touch. Given elevated DCAPE values WBZ heights, any convection will need to be monitored.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Wednesday: The Southeast U.S. will still be positioned on the western grip of Atlantic high pressure as a series of surface lows pass across the northern CONUS. Conditions will remain dry with a mix of clouds and sun. The main focus for the day is on temperatures, with an unseasonably hot day forecast. Highs will reach the low 90s, with areas in southeast Georgia reaching the mid 90s. The beaches however will be cooler, topping out in the mid 80s.
Record setting high temperatures are possible Wednesday (see Climate section below). The good news is that dew points should mix out in the afternoon, keeping heat index values only a few degrees higher than the ambient air temperatures. Overnight temps will remain mild with mins in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Thursday and Friday: A strong cold front will approach the area from the northeast Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. While the bulk of the day Thursday appears to be dry, thunderstorms could develop in the early evening and begin to move into the forecast area. Guidance shows signals of a MCV developing upstream, which complicates the forecast due to much dependence on its evolution and propagation. Additionally, the timing of the severe potential remains a bit uncertain with the NAM depicting storms to move through late Thursday night, meanwhile the global models trend toward an earlier evening arrival. Nonetheless, the environment could be supportive of a notable severe weather threat with another day of above normal temperatures, resulting in SBCAPE values in excess of 2,000 J/kg. Deep layer shear looks to be on the order of 35-45 knots. Temperatures Thursday will reach the low/mid 90s, with heat indices a few degrees higher, but below the 100 degree mark. Similarly, overnight we expect lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Guidance depicts another round of showers and thunderstorms Friday associated with a shortwave swinging across the northern Gulf states and the actual passage of the cold front. Timing is rather uncertain, but activity could be ongoing from the previous night, with deeper convection developing as early as late morning. Signals of yet another MCV approaching from the upstream Deep South/Gulf convection makes this forecast particularly tricky, especially in terms of the severe threat. Regardless, we will likely see convection at some point during the day Friday with deep moisture and forcing in place. Temperatures will be slightly cooler due to convection and the FROPA, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will gradually build in the wake of the front, bringing dry, rain-free conditions and cooler temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Solid VFR conditions anticipated through Wednesday morning. A few "heating of the day" showers are possible near KCHS/KJZI this afternoon although chances are not high enough to warrant inclusion in the forecast. Otherwise, southwest winds this afternoon will trend southerly this afternoon as the sea breeze slowly moves inland. Winds around 10 knots anticipated with a few higher gusts.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE
High pressure will remain centered south of the region today and tonight. Winds should generally remain from the SSW between 10-15 kts through today and tonight. Seas are forecast to range between 2- 4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: Atlantic high pressure will maintain hold over the local marine waters. Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kt with seas 2-4 ft are forecast through Wednesday night. Winds and seas will increase/build Thursday into Friday as a cold front approaches. Small Craft Advisories are possible Thursday/Thursday night as gusts approach 25 kt, and again Friday night behind the FROPA. Conditions will improve over the weekend with high pressure gradually building in from the west. W/SW winds will drop to 10-15 kt and seas will diminish to 3 ft or less.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The upcoming New Moon (May 8) and recent Perigee (May 5) will lead to elevated astronomical tides over the next few days. Minor coastal flooding is possible along Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties, including Downtown Charleston, during the evening high tides Tuesday through Thursday.

CLIMATE
May 7: KCHS: 93/1977 KSAV: 94/1977

May 8: KCHS: 93/1986 KSAV: 96/1986

May 9: KCHS: 95/1963 KSAV: 95/1962

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Back River Reservoir
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:24 AM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:57 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:48 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:03 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:53 AM EDT     1.79 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:43 AM EDT     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     2.23 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Charleston, SC,