Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 10:07 AM   Moonset 12:07 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 722 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Today - SW winds 5 kt, becoming se this morning, then becoming S 10 kt this afternoon. A chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Showers with a chance of tstms. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of tstms. Showers.Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Thu - NW winds 10 kt. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 76 degrees.

AMZ300 722 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will exit the coast early today with a storm system approaching from the west. An active weather pattern will start this afternoon with multiple rounds of showers and Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday.

FXUS62 KCHS 130832 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 432 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will exit the coast early today with a storm system approaching from the west. An active weather pattern will start this afternoon with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: Aloft, weak ridging will extend across the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic states early in advance of trough shifting across the Midwest. At the sfc, high pressure across the local area will slowly nudge offshore across the western Atlantic this afternoon in advance of early morning convection continuing across the Deep South. Much of the morning is expected to remain rainfree with model soundings indicating a pocket of low-lvl dry air locally. However, isentropic lift is expected to increase across southern zones by late morning while a light southerly wind advects moisture to the area, suggesting greater cloud coverage and eventually light rain/showers breaking out across southeast Georgia late morning into early afternoon hours, followed by areas across southeast South Carolina mid-late afternoon. Instability will be lacking given the extent of cloud cover and fairly early start to rain/showers, but a few thunderstorms are possible across southeast Georgia by the evening.
Chances of thunderstorms will be largely dependent on the evolution of ongoing convection well upstream, which a fair amount of guidance indicates tracking south of the local area and limiting thunderstorm chances north of the Altamaha River. Regardless, the potential for stronger thunderstorms through this evening will remain quite low.
However, overall rain/shower chances should increase late day as forcing and moisture increases locally.

Tonight: The overall convective trend of upstream thunderstorms could play a large role in precip chances across southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, at least during evening hours. Given latest model trends, precip chances have been lowered to 40-50% during evening hours. However, there should be an uptick in precip coverage and thunderstorm potential during the second half of the night as isentropic ascent increases along/ahead of a warm front lifting north into the region approaching daybreak while h5 shortwave energy continues to traverse the Southeast along the eastern edge of the mid-lvl trough to the northwest. Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms could impact the local area by a few hours prior to daybreak, and a few stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out with increasing instability locally as the warm front shifts north into the area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
To start on Tuesday a mid-level trough will be positioned over the central Mississippi Valley. This trough will then trek eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic states into Wednesday, pushing off the East Coast on Thursday. At the surface a warm front will be to the north of the forecast area on Tuesday, with a cold front pushing through later on Wednesday. High pressure will briefly build into the region on Thursday.

The most active part of the forecast is Tuesday, with numerous showers likely ongoing to start the morning. There is significant uncertainty in how the precipitation coverage is going to evolve through the day, but most guidance points to the heaviest rainfall remaining offshore. However, it is possible that some of the heavy rainfall could impact the immediate coastline, especially the SC coastline. Generally around 1 to 1.5 inches is expected over the forecast area, with some locations around 2 inches in Charleston and Berkeley Counties. An additional point of uncertainty is the convective evolution throughout the day on Tuesday. Models are not in agreement regarding the amount of instability. The forecast includes mention of a chance of thunder, as shear values are impressive and only a little bit of instability would likely trigger a thunderstorm. While the overall severe threat remains low, a strong storm cannot be ruled out. Thick cloud cover on Tuesday will yield high temperatures only in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Precipitation will shift offshore Tuesday night, leaving only some lingering showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures on Wednesday will likely reach into the mid to upper 80s. All precipitation should clear the forecast area by Thursday morning with clearing skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Zonal flow will develop aloft on Friday, with a shortwave poised to ripple through into Saturday. Broad ridging will then build in for the remainder of the weekend. An active weather pattern is expected Friday and Saturday, as showers and thunderstorms associated with the passing shortwave aloft and surface cold front impact the region. Temperatures through the period are expected to be above normal.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will persist at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals through at least early Monday afternoon, before cigs lower to MVFR with the approach or rain/showers from the southwest late Monday afternoon into the evening. Greatest chances for flight restrictions should occur at the SAV terminal, where prevailing MVFR cigs begin at 22Z Monday, followed by lower MVFR cigs and vsbys by around 01Z Tuesday.
MVFR cigs/rain should arrive at CHS/JZI terminals starting around 23Z Monday, then gradually lower through the evening. IFR conditions are possible at the terminals Monday evening, but confidence remains too low to include in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could bring flight restrictions to the terminals from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: High pressure will linger across local waters for much of the day, before shifting further offshore in advance of a trough well inland. Expect marine conditions to remain quiet through the afternoon with south-southeast winds slowly increasing mid-late afternoon to around 10-15 kt. Seas will also slowly build during the day, ranging between 1-2 ft across nearshore waters and 2-3 ft across offshore Georgia waters. An uptick in winds and seas is expected during the overnight period as a warm front slowly lifts north late. South-southeast winds should approach 15-20 kt across most waters after midnight, and could gust to 25 kt across Georgia waters late. Seas will also build overnight, reaching 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across offshore Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory could eventually be needed across Georgia waters starting late tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday: A warm front will be positioned to the north of the marine waters on Tuesday, with SW winds 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Seas should average 4 to 6 ft across the Charleston County nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory may be required Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Seas 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. A cold front is forecast to push through the region overnight Wednesday into Thursday, with winds shifting from the SW to the NW, remaining around 15 knots.
Seas will continue to diminish, with 2 to 3 ft forecast on Thursday.
Friday and into the weekend SW winds around 10 knots and seas 2 to 3 ft will prevail.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Back River Reservoir
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Mon -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:55 PM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Back River Reservoir, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     -2.02 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:39 AM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:38 PM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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