Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewisville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:24PM Monday November 20, 2017 11:15 AM CST (17:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 7:21PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewisville, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 201656 aab
afdfwd
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
1056 am cst Mon nov 20 2017

Update
Today will be a slightly warmer but breezier day across north and
central texas. The current forecast is on track and no significant
changes were needed for the update. Aside for updating hourly
trends, adjusted high temperatures up a degree or two mainly in
our northeastern counties based on latest trends and clearing high
cloud cover.

Jldunn

Aviation issued 546 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
12z tafs
the only real challenge on this forecast set will be possible
vsby restrictions at waco regional both early this morning and
again Tuesday morning, with dfw metro airports seeingVFR
throughout.

Waco regional airport... Stronger radiational cooling and very
weak south-southwest flow has resulted in some moisture flux off
nearby lake waco for a brief tempo period of possible MVFR vsbys
early this morning.VFR conditions with south winds around 10
knots are expected by this afternoon and through the evening
hours. A vigorous shortwave passing through this morning will only
bring spotty dense cirrus this morning, before clearing occurs
this afternoon in wake of the upper disturbance passing through.

Late tonight brings a challenge as 925mb flow veers and advects a
very shallow, near surface layer of moisture from the gulf of
mexico across the airport after midnight. I have introduced MVFR
vsbys for now with scattered stratus at AOB fl010. This weak warm
advection just above the surface should allow for spotty br, or
possibly fg formation at or near the airport after midnight and
through mid morning Tuesday. Ifr CIGS are being shown by WRF and
nam forecast soundings, but not the gfs. For now will introduce an
optimistic 4sm br sct008 after midnight. Later forecasts should
have more confidence on whether ifr conditions and or any br fg
occurs late tonight.

Dfw metro airports... VFR conditions and increasing south winds
of 10-15 knots are expected through tonight. A passing shortwave
this morning will result in scattered-broken cirrus that will be
shunted east of the area this afternoon. As noted in the waco
regional discussion, any modified warm advection and moisture flux
should remain confined over central texas as 925mb flow veers in
advance of a cold FROPA expected later on Tuesday.

05

Short term issued 345 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
today and tonight
a well-defined shortwave disturbance aloft will track east across
the region through this evening. Due to a very dry atmospheric
column as noted by the 0.24 inches of pwat on the the 00z fwd
sounding, the only thing we'll see from this system is the
continuation of some high clouds today. At the surface, the
departure of our cool surface high will continue to enhance
southerly winds today with slightly warmer temperatures from what
the area experienced on Sunday. Highs will range from the lower
60s east to the mid-upper 60s west. I wouldn't be surprised to see
a rogue 70 degree reading across the far western counties if the
high cloudiness disperses quickly enough.

For tonight, the aformentioned shortwave disturbance will move
away from the area with clearing skies. Southerly winds of 10-15
mph will continue across the western counties as lee side pressure
falls continue. Wind speeds less than 10 mph will occur farther
east and thus, these areas will see the cooler temperatures. Lows
will be primarily in upper 40s, though protected areas across
central texas counties east of i-35 could see values fall into the
lower-mid 40s. 925mb flow on the order of 25-30 kts will veer
southwest and help surge modified moisture across our central
texas during the pre-dawn hours and have inserted some patchy fog
for those areas near river valleys and bodies of water.

Otherwise, quiet sensible weather is expected due to the dry
airmass in place and subsidence expected behind the departing
shortwave.

05

Long term issued 345 am cst Mon nov 20 2017
Tuesday through Sunday
quiet and generally rain-free conditions are expected through the
entire outlook period, despite the passage of a few frontal
boundaries through the region. The one caveat to these rain-free
conditions may be on Tuesday across far southeastern zones where
there remains a very low chance for a few sprinkles. Otherwise,
expect large swings between high and low temperatures on most days
given the dry airmass in place.

Low level moisture will continue to lift northward on Tuesday as a
compact, but potent shortwave trough dives southward in the
meridional flow aloft across the region. Forecast soundings the
past few days have shown a saturated near-surface layer across
central tx and with a favorable hydrolapse, I can't rule out some
patchy fog down across this area. Strong winds just above the
surface may prove to be a negating factor to this development and
its possible that only a low stratus deck develops. For now, will
increase cloud cover and continue a mention of patchy fog beyond
12 utc on Tuesday. Any fog should disperse by mid to late morning.

Mid and upper level cloud cover will be on the increase through
the day as a 100 knot 300mb jet overspreads the area from the
north.

As noted the past few days, there will be a decent amount of
ascent ahead of the aformentioned shortwave trough. However,
moisture in the free atmosphere just above the surface, but below
the mid-levels remains very low. I'll maintain a silent 10-15 pop
given this strong lift, but the very dry air precludes mentioning
sprinkles or light rain in the worded forecast at this time.

Temperatures on Tuesday are a tad tricky as weak compressional
warming ahead of the front will be pitted against increasing mid
and high level clouds. At this time, I believe that the northern
two-thirds of the forecast area will climb into the 60s to near
70. Across central tx south of a lampasas to temple killeen to
palestine line, temperatures may climb into the mid 70s as low
level flow remains veered through peak heating and mid high level
cloud cover thins.

Despite fropa, conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
will be a tad warmer than the previous night due to stronger
northerly nocturnal breezes. Overnight temperatures will only fall
into the mid to upper 30s along the red river and across
northwest zones to 40s elsewhere. Mid and upper level clouds will
begin to clear from west to east. Wednesday will be cooler as
north winds, albeit a tad lighter, persist. Highs will likely
only climb into the upper 50s along the red river to low to mid
60s elsewhere. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be on
the chilly side as clear skies, light variable winds and a dry
airmass will promote ideal radiational cooling. Very light
northerly winds may keep eastern sections colder than central and
western zones where southerly winds are expected to return.

Thanksgiving day (Thursday) should be a very pleasant day across
much of the area as temperatures rebound. There is a hint in model
wind, temperature and pressure fields that a weak frontal boundary
may slide southward towards the area. The broad surface low
associated with this feature may be enough to veer winds such that
winds become westerly. This would favor warmer conditions and i've
started to trend towards european MOS output with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. The diffuse boundary does appear as if it'll
slide southward through the area on Thursday, resulting in a brief
wind shift to the north Thursday evening.

By Friday, southerly winds return in response to a deepening
surface low to the northwest. The increase in winds aloft on
Friday morning should limit the ability of the boundary layer to
completely decouple and overnight low temperatures will be 5 to 8
degrees greater than Thursday morning. Afternoon high temperatures
will be above seasonal norms with readings in the 70s. A few sites
out west may climb into the mid to upper 70s thanks to
southwesterly flow at the surface.

The third front for this week looks to arrive through the day on
Saturday across north and central tx. Models have started to
cluster near this solution and this yields a bit higher
confidence in FROPA timing compared to 24 hours ago. With the
front likely not making it to i-20 by midday, a majority of the fa
will still experience above normal temperatures. In fact, areas
along the red river may only fall into the upper 70s. The
remainder of north and central tx should climb into the mid to
upper 70s. The best low level moisture will still remain south of
the area and so at this time, i've continued with a rain-free
forecast in the extended.

24-bain

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 66 49 67 42 61 0 0 5 5 0
waco 67 48 70 44 63 0 5 10 10 0
paris 64 44 65 37 58 0 5 0 0 0
denton 65 46 68 37 61 0 0 0 0 0
mckinney 64 46 66 40 59 0 0 5 5 0
dallas 66 50 67 43 61 0 0 5 5 0
terrell 65 47 68 42 61 0 5 10 5 0
corsicana 66 47 68 44 60 0 5 10 10 5
temple 67 47 73 44 64 0 5 10 10 0
mineral wells 67 43 68 37 61 0 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

82 25


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX10 mi29 minSSE 13 G 1913.00 miA Few Clouds59°F28°F31%1021.7 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX12 mi23 minS 1310.00 miA Few Clouds61°F30°F31%1020.6 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX14 mi23 minS 1510.00 miFair59°F32°F36%1021 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX16 mi23 minS 13 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds60°F28°F30%1021.2 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX20 mi23 minS 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F30°F31%1021.1 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX21 mi23 minS 1310.00 miFair59°F32°F36%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7W3SW3SW3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SE4CalmCalmS4S7S6S6S6S8S13
G19
1 day agoNW18
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N6N5NW4NW4W3CalmCalmNW5NW4NW4N5CalmN6CalmNE5
2 days agoS15
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G36
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.