Sunrise 6:40 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 12:10 AM   Moonset 9:51 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 291731 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1231 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday Night/

Thick morning fog and low clouds continue to erode this afternoon with sustained heating. While visibilities have improved across the region, there are still some pockets of thicker low cloud cover. Until these erode this afternoon, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler beneath the clouds. Otherwise, most areas will see sunny skies by mid afternoon with temperatures in the lower 80s.

While we could see some additional fog develop later tonight, southerly winds 5-10 mph may keep the boundary layer sufficiently mixed to inhibit dense fog. Weak shortwave ridging will persist across the Southern Plains through Tuesday and should keep things relatively quiet across North Texas, but southerly winds will pull moisture northward and a dryline will sharpen to our west. Latest model guidance does suggest that our ridging will pass to the east late in the day and weak ascent will overspread the Plains. The GFS is particularly bullish on thunderstorm development along the dryline late tomorrow afternoon, but it does have some support from the hi-res guidance. For now, we'll keep PoPs at 20% and continue to monitor. Any storms that develop might be able to spread into our western counties during the late evening.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 334 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/ Update:

No major changes were made to the previous forecast, therefore, the discussion below remains valid. Another foggy early morning is expected east of I-35 Tuesday night into sunrise Wednesday.

Periodic rain chances will continue through much of the week with the greatest rain potential arriving on Thursday. Strong to severe storms will be possible, but timing/location remain uncertain at this time.

Rain chances will continue through the weekend, however, a complete washout is not expected. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion: /Monday Night Onward/

Quiet weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday, but a weak disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Tuesday afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the Big Country, where convective initiation should take place. Storms would likely end up being isolated in nature thanks to the presence of a strong capping inversion, but a storm or two may still reach severe thresholds somewhere west of I-35.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. Height falls in advance of the trough will lead to more thunderstorm development along the dryline. A cap will still be in place, but and added upper level support should help convection overcome the cap, leading to scattered storms across mainly the western half of the region Wednesday evening. A secondary swath of showers and storms may enter the southeast counties Wednesday afternoon as an active sea/gulf breeze enters from the south. The better severe threat will exist with the dryline convection (west of I-35), while a lower threat will accompany the seabreeze storms.

The upper trough will drop southeast through the Southern Plains Thursday through Thursday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by Thursday afternoon, and may grow upscale into a linear MCS while becoming focused along an attendant cold front. Strong to severe storms will be possible as activity pushes southeast through the region Thursday night, with precipitation exiting to the southeast Friday morning with the front.

Another lull in the active weather pattern will take place on Friday, which should actually end up being a nice post-frontal day with drier air and highs in the 70s. Clouds will rapidly increase on Saturday, however, as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet approaches from the west. The front will again become focus for convective development as it lifts north as a warm front on Saturday. The severe weather potential is uncertain, however, as it may become dependent on how rapidly the warm sector arrives. Whatever the case, rain chances will continue into next Sunday, followed by warmer and drier weather to start the following week as ridging develops aloft.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

Low clouds and fog have generally eroded across the region, although some IFR cigs still persist to the south and southeast of the D10 airspace. VFR should prevail through the period with light and variable winds becoming southerly later this evening. While we could have some visibility reductions early Tuesday morning, we'll keep things at 5SM BR for now. South winds will increase to 10-15 kt on Tuesday with VFR prevailing outside of morning fog.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 64 87 70 83 / 0 0 0 5 20 Waco 83 62 84 69 82 / 0 0 0 5 30 Paris 80 60 83 64 83 / 5 0 0 0 30 Denton 79 61 86 68 82 / 0 0 0 5 20 McKinney 79 61 84 68 82 / 0 0 0 5 20 Dallas 83 63 86 69 84 / 0 0 0 5 20 Terrell 78 61 84 67 82 / 0 0 0 5 30 Corsicana 79 64 86 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 30 Temple 82 62 85 70 83 / 0 0 5 5 30 Mineral Wells 83 62 88 68 83 / 0 0 0 10 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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