Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lewisville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 9:29AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lewisville, TX
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location: 33.08, -96.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 231722
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1222 pm cdt Thu may 23 2019

Aviation
18z TAF issuance
concerns -- overnight morning MVFR stratus. Gusty s-sely winds.

The 18z TAF issuance is largely unchanged from the previous taf
issuance. North central tx remain between an upper-level ridge
anchored over the southeast and an upper-level trough digging over
the rocky mountains. The result is deep gusty s-sely flow across
the region. CIGS this afternoon have managed to return toVFR
amidst surface heating and strong mixing from gusty winds.

Tonight... As the nocturnal LLJ picks up once again... And low-level
moisture remains abundant... Expecting another round of MVFR
stratus at all TAF sites. CIGS should drop to MVFR around midnight
local time and continue into the morning hours (an approximate
repeat of last night's trends). A few TAF sites could see
temporary cig reductions to below fl020... With confidence highest
at kact where moisture will be a bit richer. Kact is the only taf
site where sub-fl020 CIGS have been explicity indicated... But
tempo groups (or possibly brief prevailing groups) may need to be
added to metroplex TAF sites in later issuances as confidence
increases in timing.

37

Update issued 1038 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
forecast is pretty much on track, with few changes made to the
public grids. Updated products already sent. More details below.

14z surface analysis reveals a 1003 mb surface low near roswell,
nm and a stationary front extending to the northeast across the
texas panhandle and into northern oklahoma. A dryline extends
south of the surface low along the lee of the sacramento mountains
to near big bend national park. Thunderstorms will likely form
later today on the llano estacado ahead of these features, but
these storms should remain well off to our west, even as they push
east late tonight.

Meanwhile back on the ranch, a muggy morning with dewpoints in the
low 70s across the fwd county warning area. Low-level stratus has
been a bit slow to mix out, and partly to mostly cloudy skies are
expected to persist through at least early afternoon. That said,
we should get some breaks in the cloud cover (as evident on the
goes-16 visible channel), which should allow high temperatures to
climb into the upper 80s for most locations (combined with the
high dewpoints, it will feel like the lower 90s). Look for
increasing southerly winds through the afternoon as the eastern
new mexico surface low deepens in response to deep western conus
troughing. All of this is a long way of saying weather impacts
should be relatively minimal for the remainder of today and
tonight.

37

Short term issued 330 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
today and tonight
texas remains between troughing in the west and ridging in the
east. Of the two, it will be the intensifying anticyclone in the
southeast that will drive today's forecast. Our flow aloft will
back, and 500mb heights this afternoon will be 6-8 decameters
higher than 24 hours previous. (in gridiron terms, that's 65 to 90
yards.) this will help strengthen the capping inversion that
should effectively prevent moist, unstable surface parcels from
escaping the boundary layer. The slim thunderstorm chances in the
northwest will be even slimmer today, and only silent pops less
than 10 percent will be featured in the grids this afternoon
evening. Once again today, the inversion will maintain mostly
cloudy skies well into the afternoon. Despite the increasing
subsidence aloft, backing 850mb flow will cool temps near the top
of the boundary layer, and high temperatures may lose a degree or
two as a result. Otherwise, it will be a similarly warm and breezy
day. The clouds will eventually mix out, with another brief
interlude this evening before the stratus returns again tonight.

25

Long term issued 330 am cdt Thu may 23 2019
Friday onward
the extended portion of the forecast will feature longwave
troughing over the western us with a building upper ridge axis
across the southeastern us. This will place the southern plains
within southwesterly flow aloft with a warm advection regime
prevailing through the next week. In general, our chances for
precipitation will remain low throughout this time period, with
perhaps a greater potential arriving around the middle of next
week.

On Friday and over the weekend, a surface dryline will serve as
the western boundary of a mt airmass over north and central
texas. The dryline is expected to remain positioned well to the
west of the forecast area throughout this time frame as it serves
as a focus for convective initiation each afternoon evening. In
general, associated thunderstorm activity is also expected to
remain west and north of the CWA with a tendency to weaken
dissipate as it translates eastward, becoming removed from ascent
while encountering increasing cin. Have included some low pops
across our far west northwest on Friday night when convection may
survive into these areas before rapidly deteriorating. Convection
looks to be displaced even farther northwest over the weekend, and
will show a dry forecast for the time being. Otherwise, the only
precipitation potential would be some sprinkles of rain with
perhaps an isolated warm advection shower as moisture surges
northward each day. After mild nights with lows around 70 and
morning stratus intrusions, temperatures will rise quickly each
afternoon in the neighborhood of 90 degrees. A southerly breeze of
15-25 mph will also occur each afternoon.

Similar trends will continue into Monday with a dry start to the
week. However, the upper ridge across the southeast is expected to
break down and retreat slightly east or southeast, allowing
troughing to spread farther eastward. This could result in some
better shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast area
beginning as early as Tuesday, with chances continuing through
Thursday. During this time, modest ascent from passing shortwaves
along the northeast periphery of the upper ridge may occasionally
be sufficient to initiate storms within our moist and unstable
airmass. Given the overall parameter space of shear and
instability, at least a low-end potential for some strong or
severe storms could exist. Guidance is suggesting a a late-
season cold front could encroach on the area late Wednesday or
Thursday, perhaps increasing convective chances as well. Overall,
will maintain some broad low pops across the forecast area through
the midweek time frame. Highs may be a couple degrees cooler than
earlier in the forecast period, simply due to an increase in
afternoon cloud cover and possible precipitation.

-stalley

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 87 74 89 72 90 5 5 5 5 0
waco 88 73 89 72 92 10 5 0 5 0
paris 87 71 87 69 87 5 0 0 5 0
denton 87 73 87 70 89 5 5 5 5 5
mckinney 87 73 88 71 89 5 5 5 5 0
dallas 89 75 91 73 91 5 5 5 5 0
terrell 88 74 90 71 91 5 5 0 5 0
corsicana 88 74 89 71 90 10 5 0 5 0
temple 88 73 89 72 90 10 5 5 5 0
mineral wells 87 73 87 69 88 5 5 10 10 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

37 91


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX10 mi45 minSSE 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast84°F69°F62%1015.9 hPa
Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, TX12 mi39 minSSE 22 G 2610.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy84°F69°F61%1013.9 hPa
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX14 mi39 minSSE 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F70°F61%1014.6 hPa
Dallas Love Field, TX16 mi39 minSE 17 G 2310.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F69°F57%1014.8 hPa
Fort Worth, Fort Worth Alliance Airport, TX20 mi39 minSSE 19 G 267.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy85°F70°F61%1013.4 hPa
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX21 mi39 minSSE 16 G 2510.00 miOvercast84°F71°F65%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from ADS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS17
G26
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G32
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G25
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1 day agoS6S11
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S4S4S7SE6SE8S8SE8SE9SE11
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--SE10SE16
G21
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2 days agoS12
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SW8
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G14
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G36
--S4SW8S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.