Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 1:59 PM   Moonset 2:12 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 123 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
This afternoon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers with tstms likely in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of tstms after midnight. Sun - W winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - N winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Tue - NE winds 10 kt. Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 77 degrees.

AMZ300 123 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend. High pressure returns to our region next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 171810 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 210 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A storm system will bring impacts to our area this weekend.
High pressure returns to our region next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 2 PM: KCLX detected a stream of showers tracking across SE GA into lower SC. Based on radar trends and recent HRRR runs, PoPs have been increased through this evening. In addition, given the arriving rainfall and thick cloud cover, high temperatures will be reduced by 1 to 2 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Saturday: The mid-levels will consist of a trough over the Middle/Lower MS Valley in the morning. It will shift eastward and take on a positive tilt, becoming located over the OH/TN Valleys by the afternoon, and over the Southeast U.S. late at night. At the surface, a warm front will be located north of our area in the morning, attached to a weak Low over NC. This weak Low will gradually move offshore with time, dragging a cold front with it.
The cold front is expected to move through our area late at night.
There will be deep moisture across our region. A band of nearly 2" PWATs originating in the Gulf of Mexico will overspread our area in the afternoon. These values are above the 90% mark per SPC sounding climatology for CHS. They're also 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. What's more impressive is the NAEFS IVT is from the SW and is 4-5 standard deviations above normal over southern portions of our area in the afternoon and evening. So there's plenty of moisture to rain out of the atmosphere. But the day may start out mostly dry with the main focus in the afternoon. It is likely a MCS will be ongoing in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast in the morning. It's expected to track east into our area during the afternoon. Some of the synoptic models differ on the timing. Though the consensus along with the long-range CAMs points towards the afternoon. There should be plenty of instability in place with highs in the 80s. MLCAPEs could approach 2,500 J/kg with decent mid-level lapse rates. There will also be plenty of shear with 0-6 km bulk values 40-50 kt, with hodographs mostly unidirectional. So any organized line of thunderstorms moving through our area could easily become severe, with the main hazard being damaging winds. But a brief tornado also can't be ruled out along the edge of the line and bowing segments. SPC has upgraded our entire area to a Slight Risk, and this seems reasonable given the synoptic and mesoscale parameters. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected with the storms.
Though, the widespread flood potential should be limited, mainly because the storms should be moving at a decent speed. Once the line moves through, stratiform precipitation should persist afterwards, followed by scattered thunderstorms into the evening and overnight.
Low temperatures should be a few degrees above normal.

Sunday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It'll slowly shift offshore into the evening and overnight. A cold front will be located just offshore in the morning, and moving away as time progresses. Surface troughing is expected to form over our region in the afternoon, and persist into the overnight. Even though the cold front will have crossed through our area the previous night, the deep moisture will be very slow to decrease. PWATs will remain in the 1.5-2.0" range, which is above normal per SPC sounding climatology for CHS and per NAEFS.
Given all of the moisture and synoptic lift, models are in good agreement indicating scattered showers in the morning increasing to numerous or widespread showers by the afternoon. Temperatures should peak in the lower 80s, limited by the aforementioned showers. This will also lead to less instability than the previous day. But there should be enough instability in place for some thunderstorms.
However, shear will be much less than the previous day. So while there should be some thunderstorms, the severe risk is much lower than on Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be a bigger concern given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. We can't rule out flooding in some areas, especially considering the potential for saturated soils from Saturday's heavy rains. Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity from west to east during the evening and overnight hours. Most locations should be dry by daybreak Sunday, except maybe the immediate coast.

Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a positively tilted trough just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, and a ridge just to our west. The ridge will slowly build into our area into the afternoon. At the surface, High pressure centered well to our north will build down the coast, making its way into our area. The high should bring lowering POPs than the previous two day. Though, a few showers cannot be ruled out along a pinned sea breeze. Northerly surface winds will bring below normal high temperatures, ranging from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid-level ridging will be over our region through Wednesday, followed by southwest flow on Thursday. Surface High pressure centered to our north Monday night will shift over our region by Wednesday, then offshore on Thursday. A cold front could approach from the northwest later Thursday, possibly bringing showers.
Temperatures will be trending higher, reaching into the 90s by Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected scattered showers streaming across SE GA, with showers passing over and near KSAV. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually increase across SE GA through mid-evening. The KSAV TAF will feature a TEMPO between 0-3Z for VFB10G15kt during TSRA. KCHS and KJZI may see passing showers this evening into the late night hours. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that MVFR ceilings are expected to develop over the terminals late tonight remaining into mid Saturday morning. Conditions are expected to become VFR by 14Z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A storm system will bring periods of flight restrictions this weekend. VFR returns later Monday.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: Weak sfc high pressure will prevail across local waters for much of the day while a mid-lvl ridge axis is positioned near the Southeast Coast. This will support quiet marine conditions into late afternoon or early evening with south/southeast winds generally no higher than 10 kt. Seas will range between 1-2 ft.
Heading into overnight hours, there should be an uptick southerly wind speed (10-15 kt) as a warm front lifts north across the region.
Seas will also build during the night, approaching 2-3 ft by midnight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also increase overnight as the warm front advances north. A few thunderstorms could become strong displaying gusty winds and it's not out the question for a few Special Marine Warnings if that becomes the case.

Extended Marine: Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly flow will persist through Sunday, then the winds turn northerly behind a cold front early next week. Wind gusts could briefly approach 25 kt late Sunday night into Monday morning with an initial burst of cold advection, mainly over the Charleston County nearshore waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Pimlico
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Fri -- 01:47 AM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:22 AM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:07 PM EDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pimlico, West Branch, Cooper River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Charleston Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:41 AM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:15 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:05 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:29 PM EDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current, knots

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