Thursday, August17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Princeton, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday August 17, 2017 10:37 AM CDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 1:30AMMoonset 3:46PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, TX
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location: 33.15, -96.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 171204 aaa
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service fort worth tx
704 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017

Earlier showers and and thunderstorms continue to gradually pull
away from the metroplex sites this morning. The eastern metroplex
terminals will have to contend with thunder potential for another
hour or so as a few last cells develop behind the southward
sinking outflow, but gradually improving conditions are in store
this morning asVFR conditions return. Northeast winds will become
easterly and then south southwesterly by mid-morning as the
synoptic flow returns. The outflow boundary from this morning's
storms should lay up just south of i-20, and could become a focus
for a renewed bout of thunderstorms this afternoon with additional
heating in a moist and unstable airmass. As a result, opted to add
in a period of vcts at all the metroplex sites from 21-00z this
afternoon. Gusty downburst winds will be possible with any
afternoon activity.

At waco, MVFR CIGS appear to have been shunted mainly to the south
and east of the airfield, but a few wisps of low CIGS may yet
graze waco regional before bases lift. Vcsh will continue for a
few more hours as activity to the south and west moves
northeastward. High-resolution guidance also suggests that
thunderstorms which develop along the aforementioned outflow
boundary may drift southward an impact the waco terminal late this
afternoon, and as a result, have also added in a vcts mention from
23-01z. MVFR CIGS tonight look to remain south and east of the taf


Discussion issued 353 am cdt Thu aug 17 2017
a complex of storms has successfully crossed the red river this
morning and continues moving south and southeast along its well
defined outflow boundary. While new convection continues to
develop along the leading edge outflow, a broader swath of
moderate to brief heavy rain continues behind the outflow as a
30-40 kt low level jet provides lift over the boundary. This
system will continue to progress across north texas this morning,
but will likely slow down and dissipate before midday as the low
level jet weakens and veers to the southwest. Ahead of the
complex, additional showers and storms are possible this morning
associated with warm air advection with the low level jet.

So far, winds of 20-30 mph have been occurring with the leading
edge outflow and storms. A few strong storms with winds near 40
mph may be possible this morning, and an isolated severe storm
cannot be completely ruled out, but overall, severe storms are
not expected. Gusty winds, lightning strikes, and brief heavy
rainfall will be the main hazards with the morning storms. Minor
flooding may occur, especially in counties near the red river
where moderate to heavy rainfall falling on still saturated soils
may have trouble running off.

The remnants of the complex are expected to leave a diffuse
boundary across the region. Where exactly this boundary stalls is
yet to be determined, but much of the hi-res guidance appears to
suggest a location near the i-20 corridor, give or take about 40
miles to the south or north. New convection should develop along
this boundary this afternoon and will keep fairly high pops across
the middle part of the CWA as a result. Forecast soundings
indicate an uncapped environment this afternoon characterized by
modest instability around 2000 j kg but with weak lapse rates and
low deep layer shear near 10 kts. This type of environment
usually signifies pulse-type convection very common in the summer
where the main threats will be lightning, downbursts, and brief
downpours due to a slow movement.

Rain chances today are lowest across our far southern counties,
and it is these counties that have the highest threat for
dangerous heat conditions. A heat advisory has been issued along
and south of a line from killeen to palestine where heat indices
of 105 to 110 degrees are possible. Dewpoints will mix out later
this afternoon, but the highest heat index values are expected
between the hours of noon and 4 pm, before maximum mixing occurs.

With likely a stalled outflow boundary to the north of these
counties, light wind and pooling of moisture may occur, resulting
in the dangerous heat indices. There are 2 caveats: 1) cloud
cover may hang around longer than expected and 2) the boundary
could push farther south than expected with rain this afternoon
near or in the advisory area. However, based on the latest
expected trends and calculations, did not want to delay
advertising the potential for high heat index values in that area
of central and east texas.

The upper level ridge will continue to build into the region over
the weekend and temperatures will climb a little more as a result.

Isolated to scattered afternoon convection is possible across
mainly the northern half of the region on Friday, and then drier
conditions are expected. We will have to monitor for MCS activity
the next few nights, and the latest guidance suggests another mcs
may graze our northern counties Friday night Saturday morning. The
heat will increase over the weekend as heat index values rise to
near advisory criteria across most of the area along and east of
interstate 35. Some showers or storms may be possible in our
southern counties by the middle of the week as an upper level
disturbance retrogrades west across the gulf of mexico and into
south texas.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 96 78 99 78 98 60 20 30 10 10
waco 99 78 100 77 100 40 20 20 10 10
paris 90 75 94 74 94 50 20 30 20 20
denton 96 76 96 76 97 60 20 30 10 10
mckinney 94 76 95 76 96 60 20 30 10 10
dallas 96 79 99 79 98 60 20 30 10 10
terrell 95 75 97 75 97 60 20 30 10 10
corsicana 97 77 99 77 98 50 20 20 10 10
temple 100 76 100 76 99 20 20 10 10 10
mineral wells 96 74 96 74 98 50 20 30 10 10

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from noon today to 6 pm cdt this evening for

90 82

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX6 mi44 minSE 1110.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1015.8 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi50 minno data10.00 miOvercast77°F73°F89%1016.3 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX23 mi62 minSE 610.00 miLight Rain73°F71°F94%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from TKI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS13SW12S16
1 day agoS8S10S13S12S12S12S11S11SE11SE5SE7SE7SE7SE8S8S11S10S8S10S12S12S12S17
2 days agoS11S8S5S7SW9S9S10SW10S6SE4S6CalmNE3CalmS3S3S5S10S10S10S7S7S9S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.