Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Princeton, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 5:23PM Saturday November 18, 2017 8:09 AM CST (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:58AMMoonset 5:55PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, TX
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location: 33.15, -96.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 181221
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
621 am cst Sat nov 18 2017

Aviation
12z tafs
main challenges today will be timing the passage of the a pre-
frontal surface trough, then a strong cold front through this
morning. In addition, crosswinds may become a concern for north-
south runways at dfw between 12z-15z between the surface trough
and cold front, as winds shift westerly 15-20 knots.

With 30-40 knot 925mb flow veering quickly, MVFR CIGS are no
longer a concern at waco regional airport, though a strong
shortwave will provide plenty of cirrostratus through much of the
daylight hours. An AWW will likely be needed for non-convective
wind gusts in => 35 kts at dfw post-fropa, as strong caa, strong
3-hourly surface pressure rises, and strong unidirectional mixing
lend to a few gusty to, or possibly in excess of 40 kts by midday
or early afternoon.

Dfw metro airports...

a pre-frontal trough extending from 0f2, kmwl, to ksep will
arrive into the dfw metro from the west by 13z and after. This
will result in increasing west winds AOA 15 kts with a few gusts
that could cause minor crosswind issues for 1-2 hours. A strong
cold FROPA will arrive 15z-16z with a rapid shift to the northwest
winds 25-30 kts with gusts 35-40 kts by midday, before coming
down to 20 kts or less by 00z, then 10 knots or less by 03z Sunday
and after. Otherwise,VFR with broken cirrus through much of the
day, before the shortwave aloft departs with skies clearing by 12z
sun with a surface high pressure ridge settling into the region.

Waco region airport...

similar trends to the boundary passages with respect to the
surface trough, then cold front, but just delayed 2 hours or
slightly more. Threat for MVFR CIGS has waned due to strong
veering of 925mb flow which should keep the airportVFR with
similar broken cirrus arriving by midday.

05

Update issued 514 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
despite very strong 3-hour pressures rises with the cold front now
crashing south of the i-40 corridor from western oklahoma into the
panhandles, it appears a frontal passage more toward mid morning
looks imminent for the northwest half of the cwa. As such,
slightly warmer morning highs today across these areas look to
occur and have adjusted highs up a few degrees. The rest of the
cwa still looks on tap for a late morning through midday cold
frontal passage. Otherwise, no other changes were needed.

05

Short term issued 349 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
today through tonight
we continue to watch a strong surface cold front diving south
across the high plains and was now just entering the oklahoma and
texas panhandles, as well as far northwestern oklahoma. The cold
front was being support by a strong upper disturbance moving east-
southeast over the central high plains of eastern colorado,
western nebraska, and western kansas. 3-hour pressure rises were a
phenomenal 6-8mb across far southeast colorado and far southwest
kansas behind the cold front where strong low level cold thermal
advection and tight pressure gradient were being realized.

Otherwise, a low stratus deck was being confined to about the
southeast third of the region with veered low level boundary layer
winds near 35 knots. Elsewhere, high cloudiness was thickening in
advance of the vigorous shortwave exiting across the high plains
this morning.

As the aformentioned, vigorous shortwave trough moves across the
central and southern plains later this morning and toward the
missouri and mississippi valleys, plenty of upper support and
strong surface pressures rises will help the cold front enter our
far northwest counties just after sunrise. The cold front will
then pass through the i-20 30 corridors around mid morning, before
exiting central texas after midday. No convection or rainfall is
expected along and ahead of the front due to strongly veered low
level flow minimizing convergence along with only minuscule
moisture below 850 mb. Our main concerns continue to be the very
strong north-northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts reaching
40 mph or possibly higher in a few spots. These strong winds will
be driven by both low level cold thermal and surface pressure
advection as noted by earlier 3-hour pressure rises. In addition,
deep mixing of unidirectional strong north-northwest flow 30-45
knot flow should easily occur with the expected momentum
transfer.

After collaboration with offices to the south and east, I have
added the remaining far southeast counties beginning at 11 am
cst, though they will be on the lower end of advisory wind speeds.

In addition, I have went ahead and extended the advisory through
5 pm, per expected trends in sustained winds and gusts. Per usual
with cold fronts arriving during diurnal hours of the day, a
broad range in highs are expected today from the lower 60s
northwest with an early morning high, to near 80 degrees with
compressional warming in advance of the cold front across the
southeast at midday.

A surface ridge will move into the southern plains by this
evening with bulk of the stronger CAA moving off to the south and
east of our area. The very cool and dry air in place will quickly
decouple by nightfall, as skies clear. As such, brisk north winds
near 15 mph will quickly diminish overnight to less than 10 knots
with cold low temperatures by sunrise Sunday in the 30s, to lower
40s southeast and immediate urban areas within the d fw area. A
few rural areas across the red river valley and out west could
briefly dip to freezing for an hour or two, but that's not
completely certain. We can't rule out some patchy frost across
protected areas near creeks or bodies of water, however, the
increasingly dry airmass settling should keep much from forming.

05

Long term issued 349 am cst Sat nov 18 2017
Sunday through Wednesday
generally tranquil weather conditions are expected through the
entire long term period with a couple of frontal passages. At this
time, the potential for measurable rainfall early in the week
looks. Conditions should be comfortable through most of the long
term period, including thanksgiving day.

For Sunday, high pressure will settle in across the region and
after a chilly start to the day, temperatures should range between
the upper 50s and the low to perhaps mid-60s. Rain chances will
remain nil as the airmass will be dry and little in the way of
lift will exist. Skies should be mostly sunny with just a few
passing high clouds. Surface high pressure should slide to the
east, allowing for southerly winds to return and warmer conditions
Sunday night into Monday morning.

On Monday warmer conditions are forecast as temperatures climb
into the mid to upper 60s areawide. While a diffuse upper level
trough will slide through the region, it's unlikely to result in
nothing more than a slight uptick in the coverage of mid and upper
clouds. Low level moisture will remain confined to the upper tx
coast, limiting the rain potential. Monday should be a breezy day
with surface winds in the 15 to 20 mph range. A few gusts to near
25 mph will also be possible.

A more vigorous upper trough will evolve on Tuesday as a conveyor
of 100 knot flow at 300mb extends southward from the four corners
region. Attendant to this feature will be another push of colder
air. Ahead of this cold front, however, winds will veer allowing
for even warmer conditions for parts of the area. At this time, it
looks like the cold front will slide through at least north tx
and afternoon high temperatures will be on par with those on
Monday. Across central tx, however, temperatures may soar into the
upper 70s to near 80 as efficient downsloping occurs ahead of the
front. The veering of the low level flow should also help to
shunt whatever moisture lifted northward during the overnight
hours off to the east. While moisture will be limited, the upper
trough will produce a decent amount of lift. With deterministic
gfs and ECMWF model output remaining dry and GFS and GEFS ensemble
mean QPF trending towards zero, however, i'm inclined to believe
that any precipitation that occurs on Tuesday across southeastern
and southern zones will be nothing more than a few sprinkles.

For the Wednesday through Friday time frame, the weather pattern
looks fairly benign. Aloft, flow will be quite meridional with a
large ridge to the west and deep trough to the east. This should
ensure that the gulf of mexico remains shut off and thus no
moisture return northward for rainfall across the region. As a
result, it looks like thanksgiving day will be rain-free with
seasonal temperatures. A brief warm up ahead of the next cold
front will be on tap for Friday and potentially into Saturday.

Breezy southwesterly winds combined with decreasing afternoon
humidity and above normal temperatures may raise the fire weather
threat late next week and into the weekend.

The next cold front will slide southward through the area late
next weekend. As mentioned above, limited moisture return
northward will likely limit the chance for any rain and i've
maintained a dry forecast through the remainder of the long term
forecast period.

24-bain

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 72 41 62 40 66 0 0 0 0 0
waco 75 36 62 37 66 0 0 0 0 0
paris 72 35 60 36 63 5 0 0 0 0
denton 69 33 62 38 65 0 0 0 0 0
mckinney 72 35 60 37 64 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 73 43 62 40 66 0 0 0 0 0
terrell 74 38 62 36 65 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 73 41 61 38 66 5 0 0 0 0
temple 77 39 63 39 67 5 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 67 34 61 34 67 0 0 0 0 0

Fwd watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory until 5 pm cst this afternoon for txz091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156>161.

Wind advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 pm cst this afternoon
for txz147-148-162-174-175.

05 30


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX6 mi77 minSW 1210.00 miFair69°F66°F90%1005.4 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi83 minSSW 6 G 1612.00 miClear68°F62°F83%1006.4 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX23 mi80 minSSW 17 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F78%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from TKI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S15S17
G25
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S12S11S11S13S14
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S12S11S11S11SW11SW14SW12SW10
1 day agoE4NE44E4SE4S5S5SE3E6E6E8E5E5E5SE3SE6SE6SE10S13S12S10S12S12S15
2 days agoS8S10S10S8S6S4S3CalmCalmN14
G18
NE10NE7NE5NE6NE6N5NE7NE7NE5NE6N3N4NE6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.