Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 2:54 AM   Moonset 2:24 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 032302 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: The current forecast is in good shape (see discussion below) with the bulk of the spotty afternoon showers/storms dissipating after sunset. However, storms are starting to develop across the western CWA ahead of the supercells currently across parts of the Big Country and Concho Valley. This activity will move east across the western counties through the evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially west of highway 281. Storms should continue to weaken as they approach the I-35 corridor late this evening as they get farther from their initial source of lift. It should be noted that with transient meso-scale boundaries at play, storms could develop just about anywhere given the amount of moisture and instability in the atmosphere.

Moist and unstable air will remain in place on Saturday ahead of a cold front, warranting some low daytime PoPs. Much better storm chances are expected Saturday night when the front moves through the region.

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Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

A Flood Watch is now in effect for eastern Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. This watch will continue through Sunday morning as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

The weather across North and Central Texas will remain fairly active as a warm and humid airmass remains established atop our region. As you step outdoors, the humid airmass remains evident with dew point temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Early morning convection across southern Oklahoma sent an outflow boundary southward, meanwhile, ongoing storms across Central Texas continue to push northwestward. These outflow boundaries will likely be the focus for isolated convection across North Texas this afternoon. Given a lack of strong flow, any convection is likely to remain highly disorganized and fairly short-lived.
Nonetheless, lighting and gusty winds will remain possible with any of the storms this afternoon.

Across eastern Central Texas, another remnant boundary continues to be the focus for occasional bouts of heavy rain through the rest of this afternoon. Considering the antecedent conditions, a quick 1-2 inches of rain can lead to flash flooding.

Storm chances should dissipate around or shortly after sunset as daytime heating comes to an end. This is when we'll turn our attention to the dryline across West Texas, where storms are once again expected. Although the dryline will likely be about 100 miles west of our region, storm motion this evening will be to the east with a few storms arriving to our western-most counties by 9-10pm. Given the storms will become increasingly displaced from the source of lift, expect storms to gradually dissipate trough the night. There is a low (~20%) chance of showers or storms approaching the I-35 corridor closer to midnight. Storms would be decaying, thus, the threat for severe storms would remain low.
Tonight, expect cloudy and above normal temperatures will lows remaining in the mid to upper 60s areawide.

Our next rain chances will arrive tomorrow as a cold front moves southward across our region. A shortwave trough will be migrating eastward, likely firing off thunderstorms along the leading edge of the front. At this time, the greatest rain chances will likely be beyond sunset tomorrow, however, a few isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out between noon and sunset. Any storms that do develop in the afternoon could contain small hail and gusty winds. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with southerly winds continuing.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/Issued 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/

An active weather pattern will continue Saturday night as a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet lifts northeast across North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the Big Country, and will spread east across the region overnight into Sunday morning. A wind and hail threat may accompany these storms across the western half of the region Saturday evening, but convection will be weakening Saturday night while moving into a less favorable environment.
Despite the severity or lack thereof, the presence of a quasi- stationary surface boundary will maintain a threat for more heavy rain and flooding. This threat will be highest over Central Texas where heavy rains have already occurred, and where the front will most likely be located (and is currently exacerbating the ongoing flooding across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas). A Flood Watch has hence been issued through around midday Sunday for those Central Texas Counties who have experienced multiple rounds of heavy rain over the past several days.

Convection will move out during the morning hours Sunday, making for an overall decent day with highs mainly in the 70s. There may be a few rogue showers that pop up in the afternoon but those should be few and far between. Attention will then turn to a larger scale upstream trough, which will cross the Rockies Sunday night, then lift northeast through the Plains on Monday. Most of the ascent associated with this system will remain to our north, but we will still likely have isolated dryline-induced convection Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage may be low due to the presence of a capping inversion, but we will otherwise have a warm and unstable environment in place, and any storms which develop could become severe.

The passing of the shortwave will send a cold front south into the area Tuesday night. After a quiet Tuesday, the front will again provide a focus for convection starting Wednesday, as a longwave trough produces cyclonic flow overhead for the mid to late week period. Scattered showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Not all will receive rain, but just about any of the area could see a shower or storm. By Friday, the front will have sagged well south of the I-20 corridor, unfortunately focusing convection across the saturated Central and Southeast Texas. The front and trough will both shift southeast of the region on Saturday, providing dry weather and overall nice conditions in time for Mother's Day weekend.

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AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

The primary aviation weather concern with this TAF package will be ceiling trends and storm chances.

Spotty afternoon showers and storms will dissipate with the loss of surface heating but additional storms will approach all TAF sites from the west late this evening. Most guidance dissipates this activity before reaching D10, so will not include in this TAF issuance. Better storm chances will not arrive until Saturday evening/overnight.

Cu will continue to dissipate with the loss of heating, but low ceilings will return late this evening to all sites, initially starting out as MVFR, lowering to IFR towards sunrise. Ceilings will lift through the morning and eventually scatter Saturday afternoon.

A south to southeast wind will prevail through Saturday afternoon between 7 and 12 knots. Some higher gusts are possible in and near any thunderstorms.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 80 66 78 68 / 20 20 90 50 20 Waco 68 80 67 78 67 / 20 40 80 40 20 Paris 66 80 65 75 65 / 20 40 80 60 20 Denton 66 80 64 77 66 / 20 20 80 50 20 McKinney 66 80 65 77 67 / 20 20 90 50 20 Dallas 68 81 67 79 68 / 20 20 90 50 20 Terrell 66 80 65 76 67 / 20 30 90 50 20 Corsicana 69 82 67 77 69 / 20 40 80 50 20 Temple 69 80 66 79 68 / 20 40 80 40 20 Mineral Wells 66 79 63 76 67 / 30 30 80 30 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162- 174-175.

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