Saturday, November17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Princeton, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:10 PM CST (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:28PMMoonset 1:18AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Princeton, TX
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location: 33.15, -96.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 171804
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
1204 pm cst Sat nov 17 2018

A cold front extends from southwest to northeast across west-
central texas and oklahoma and will be the primary weather focus
for this TAF cycle.

South winds andVFR conditions can be expected today ahead of the
boundary. The most recent set of hi-resolution model guidance has
trended faster with the southward push of the front, and the
current set of tafs indicates an earlier FROPA by 1 to 2 hours at
all locations. It looks like the front will reach afw by midnight
before pushing through the rest of the metroplex shortly after,
then reaching kact around 09z. The front will be accompanied by
northwest winds, a few showers and MVFR cigs. At this time, it
appears that weak lift and the lack of any appreciable instability
means little to no chances for thunder.

Ceilings will lift slowly Sunday morning as the frontal layer
deepens, withVFR conditions likely returning to all locations
early Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, northwest to north winds behind
the front will continue through Sunday evening.


Short term issued 325 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
today through Sunday
today will be another nice day across the region with mild
temperatures, although we'll have to contend with increasing
cloud cover. Morning satellite imagery shows some cirrus spreading
through central texas, but a thicker, lower cloud deck will
spread northward later this afternoon with most areas becoming
overcast by evening. This is in response to increasing moisture
ahead of a shortwave trough and cold front spreading through the
plains. The front is currently located across central kansas and
will steadily progress southward through the day, entering our
northwest counties this evening. Weak low level warm moist
advection should be sufficient to allow a narrow band of forced
convection to develop along the front tonight as it moves through
the region. Elevated instability and mid level lapse rates are
weak, so showers should generally prevail. Pops will be highest
along and east of the i-35 corridor late this evening into the
overnight hours, with most of the activity spreading into
southeast texas early Sunday morning. We'll hang on to some low
pops into Sunday afternoon south of a killeen to palestine line
given that modest isentropic ascent will persist with ample
moisture atop the colder surface airmass. Sunday will be a cold
day with highs struggling to get out of the 40s in many areas
along with north winds 10-15 mph.


Long term issued 325 am cst Sat nov 17 2018
Sunday night through next week
while Sunday's cold front becomes stalled south of the forecast
area, some drier low-level air will continue to filter in from
the north. This should result in a gradual clearing trend from
north to south Sunday evening and into the overnight hours.

Clearing skies across parts of north texas should allow some of
our north northwestern zones to fall to near or just below
freezing by Monday morning, while most other areas hold in the mid
30s to near 40. Central texas on the other hand will likely remain
socked in with cloud cover, as the front won't be as effective at
scouring moisture due to the very shallow nature of this cold
airmass. While the surface and 925mb fronts will be south of the
area, the 850mb front will remain stalled across north texas. In
addition, a secondary elongated shortwave will be digging through
the southern plains Sunday night, aiding in broad ascent. As a
result, southwesterly winds in the 850-700mb layer will maintain
some isentropic upglide across southern and central texas through
Sunday night and into Monday, causing continued cloudiness and
periodic rain chances. With limited instability, a broad area of
light rain encompassing parts of central and south texas looks to
be the most likely scenario into the day Monday. North texas on
the other hand should be dry and clearer with temperatures
rebounding into the 50s following a cool Sunday. Expect all
precipitation to have exited the forecast area by Monday night as
the upper trough axis shifts southeast along with the better
moisture supply.

Following the departure of Monday's upper trough, Tuesday should
be rather pleasant with clear skies and temperatures climbing back
to near normal in the 60s. Large scale subsidence with some height
rises aloft should lead to fairly benign weather across much of
the southern plains. A broad low-level high pressure circulation
should keep the forecast area cut off from any significant
moisture return through Tuesday.

The next forecast concern will be on Wednesday, with an added
emphasis due to holiday travel considerations. While there has
previously been quite a bit of model disagreement through the
middle of the week, the picture is finally starting to become a
bit clearer. As surface high pressure shifts east, a more
favorable fetch of moisture will materialize through Wednesday
morning. Low-level wind fields will be enhanced by an approaching
shortwave within relatively zonal flow aloft. Most guidance is now
suggesting that the bulk of the forcing form this shortwave will
track right through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and
evening, likely leading to a broad area of rainfall. In addition
to the lift from the approaching shortwave, there also looks to
be a vaguely coupled jet structure aloft which should further
enhance synoptic scale ascent. Lapse rates will steepen slightly
due to adiabatic cooling via dynamic lift, and models are
suggesting 200-300 j kg of MUCAPE could be in place. As a result,
some embedded thunderstorms will be a possibility, particularly
across central texas where this weak instability should be
maximized. Precip coverage and rain totals should also be highest
across central texas, decreasing to the north. While this should
be a relatively quick shot of rain Wednesday afternoon and
evening, folks with travel plans will certainly want to keep an
eye on the weather for possible delays. The good news is that
rainfall is expected to be out of the forecast area by
thanksgiving morning, so the holiday itself should be a cloudy
but dry day with temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

The end of the week is a bit more murky as model solutions begin
diverging. For now, have maintained a dry forecast for Friday and
Saturday, although it looks like the large-scale pattern will
stay fairly progressive. Overall, temperatures should remain near
normal heading into next weekend with possibly another cold
frontal passage in the 7-10 day time period.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 69 42 49 37 58 0 40 5 10 5
waco 70 44 52 40 58 0 40 20 30 30
paris 67 47 50 35 54 0 40 20 10 5
denton 68 40 47 34 58 0 30 0 5 5
mckinney 68 43 48 35 55 0 40 5 5 5
dallas 70 44 50 37 57 0 40 5 10 5
terrell 68 46 50 37 58 0 40 10 10 10
corsicana 69 47 53 39 55 0 40 20 30 20
temple 70 45 52 41 55 0 40 20 40 40
mineral wells 70 39 47 33 58 0 10 0 5 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories

30 24

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
McKinney - McKinney National Airport, TX6 mi18 minS 14 G 2210.00 miFair67°F51°F57%1019 hPa
Dallas / Addison Airport, TX22 mi24 minS 11 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F50°F53%1018.6 hPa
Greenville / Majors, TX23 mi36 minS 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F50°F50%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from TKI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS10S9S12S9S7S8S6S6S5S6S6S6S4S6S6SE4SE4S5S5S9S11S12S13S14
1 day agoSW6S9S12S8S4S7S8S6S6S7S8S6CalmS4S3SE3SE4SE3S3S5S4SW6W86
2 days agoNW10N11N9N8CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S5SW7S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.