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FXUS64 KFWD 170500 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1200 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight through Friday Night/

After a brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms this evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move in from the west overnight. This activity will be moving into relatively stable air currently across North and Central Texas. Therefore, we don't anticipate much in the way of severe weather, but we can't rule out a strong storm with gusty winds or small hail. We will maintain the Flood Watch through the night, but most of the rain associated with the activity overnight will likely not cause too many additional flooding problems.

Extensive clouds and patchy fog overnight will keep temperatures generally in the 60s. The only exception will be across the far west where clouds will partially clear, allowing for lows to fall into the upper 50s.

Friday will be a much less active day than today with most locations not seeing any additional rainfall. However, we will maintain some low chance PoPs (20%-40%) generally north of I-20 due to the passage of a trailing piece of shortwave energy.

Although clouds will linger for part of the day Friday, there will still be some afternoon sun, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will steadily fall after sunset Friday under a mostly clear sky. The clearing sky and wet ground will result in patchy fog, especially overnight through Saturday morning.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/

Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning.
Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for areas along and south of I-20.

The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on Tuesday.

The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday.
Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third shortwave moves east across the forecast area.

Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient levels of instability (which will be in good supply each afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing, location, and the specific severe weather threats as better resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Ceiling heights will be a challenge to forecast overnight since low level flow is weak and numerous small scale boundaries remain from earlier convection. The decoupled boundary layer is moist so we do anticipate deteriorating flying conditions overnight with weak surface winds. Guidance is in good agreement that VFR ceilings late this evening will lower to MVFR overnight, falling below 1000 ft briefly towards sunrise. Visibilities will also fall towards sunrise in patchy fog. Extensive cloud cover should keep visibilities above 1 mile. Ceilings and visibilities will improve by mid-morning Friday, with all TAF sites seeing VFR conditions by midday.

A few showers and storms will approach the TAF sites from the west overnight, but stable air in place across the region will keep coverage too limited to mention in this TAF package. Any showers or storms Friday will likely stay north of the Metroplex terminals, closer to the best large scale lift associated with passing shortwave energy.

A north to northwest wind will prevail through Friday afternoon at speeds generally less than 10 knots.

79

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 83 67 89 69 / 50 20 10 0 0 Waco 61 81 66 87 69 / 50 5 10 5 0 Paris 62 81 63 85 65 / 40 40 20 5 0 Denton 59 81 62 88 66 / 40 30 10 0 0 McKinney 59 81 63 87 66 / 40 30 20 5 0 Dallas 60 84 66 89 69 / 50 20 10 5 0 Terrell 60 82 64 87 66 / 50 20 20 5 0 Corsicana 60 82 66 88 69 / 50 10 10 5 0 Temple 60 82 65 88 67 / 40 5 10 5 0 Mineral Wells 59 81 63 89 67 / 40 20 10 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ101>104-116>122-130>135- 141>148-156>162-174-175.

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