Sunday, February17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Crooked Creek, GA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:20PM Sunday February 17, 2019 10:43 PM EST (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 4:13PMMoonset 5:38AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crooked Creek, GA
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location: 33.22, -83.25     debug

Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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Fxus62 kffc 180024
area forecast discussion
national weather service peachtree city ga
724 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Cold front passage and associated pop trend looks on track for
sewd propagation overnight into early morning. Made a few minor
near term updates on some lower temp dwpt trends in the northeast
given a bit stronger more persistent wedge trying to hold on
before being eroded by the aforementioned front. Previous
discussion follows.

00z aviation update below also.


Prev discussion issued 252 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
short term tonight through Monday night ...

main concerns in short term period are threat for patchy dense fog
and heavy rain in northwest ga both occurring this afternoon and

Temps much cooler than forecast today in wedge area and made another
round of adjustments based on 2pm observations before creating final
set of grids. Front should clear up low visibility and drizzle
quickly as it moves through overnight though low clouds will likely
linger til at least sunrise. Visibilities remaining above dense fog
criteria but could drop a bit to near 1 mile or less before the
front comes. No plans for special weather statement on the fog at
this time.

Hires model trends did show some shift over slightly
heavier rain further south over NW ga this cycle. Based on gridded
flash flood guidance and limited time period for rain, have not
issued flood watch this cycle though flood outlook product, which
addressed short term threats, was issued earlier today. Will need to
monitor rainfall rates rest of the afternoon and evening closely.

Observed rainfall will have larger implications for heavy rainfall
expected from Tuesday on.


Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday begins dry for much of the area however isentropic lift and associated
return flow will be underway. GFS isentropic analysis at the 295k
level showing nearly 150mb of ascent from csg to the N ga
mountains amidst 40-45kts of upglide. Moisture return will be
strong and increasing through the day on Tuesday as low level flow
increases within the deeper southwesterly flow aloft. Interesting
to note that at the surface, cad will be in place across NE ga
which shows up well in the isentropic charts and could potentially
help create secondary MAX in rainfall across that
region... Particularly in the higher terrain as both the wedge and
topography would add to the overall lift. Models still don't have
the best handle on the location of the heavier axis of rainfall
with the new 12z ECMWF holding it further south and across N ga
late Tuesday into Wednesday and the GFS a tad further north into
tn and al. Nonetheless... The rainfall will increase in intensity
late Tuesday into Wednesday as the main front edges into the
northwestern part of the state and becomes parallel to the mean
flow. Pw values ranging in the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range which is the
99th percentile or possibly an all time feb record if 1.6 can be
observed. Will certainly need to evaluate conditions following
todays rainfall for flood or flash flood watches likely issued
late Monday or early Tuesday. Refer to the esf... Hydrologic
outlook issued earlier for more details on the event.

By Thursday.. The 295k and 300k winds showing much less vertical
ascent thus isentropic lift will become more limited.

However... Models are suggesting that the warm sector will be
expanding northward late Wed into Thu and more surface based
instability will be able to creep north through the state. With
nothing to hang the hat on in terms of upper support within the
mean flow..It is hard to determine how Thursday and Friday will
evolve. If enough upper support exists, storms could become more
convective in nature but it still remains to be seen as there is
no definitive shortwave identified by the models moving through
the flow. Will include thunder in the grids through the remainder
of the period as more instability creeps in.

Saturday and Sunday appear to be the days when models are trying
to kick out the main trof which would put an end to the gravy
train. Differences in timing still exist with no confidence really
in exact timing. Models suggesting more surface instability in
place ahead of the main short wave kicking out in addition to deep
layer shear values over 60kts suggestive of a severe threat
toward the tail end of the period..I.E. Next weekend. Will keep
chance thunder in the forecast from Thursday through the period at
this point given the instability... However..Still lack confidence
in how widespread coverage will be.

prev discussion... Issued 111 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

already made some tweaks to forecast grids for near term period
due to much cooler conditions than expected. Wedge and low
clouds precip holding in more than forecast, go figure. 12z
guidance still pegging NW counties for a round of heavy rain this
afternoon and evening tapering off after midnight as front comes
through. Hires guidance tho only ones producing more than 2 inches
of rain while large scale models keep amounts much lower. With
this uncertainty, have held off on flash flood watch for nw
counties but will continue to monitor. Have issued flood outlook
product which does address this first round of precip.


00z update...

some lifr vlifr CIGS vsbys holding on for next several hours here
given lingering wedge across some of northern sites, then cold
front should allow for ifr MVFR improvement mainly after 05z with
a NW wind shift. Showers and some drizzle for much of the
overnight and then diminishing from the north to south after 11z
(later for southern sites). NW winds near 12-14 kts gusting 20-22
kts persisting into the afternoon Monday with scattering lifting
of cigs. Monday evening will have some mid level CIGS start to
come in and decrease in NW wind mags.

Atl confidence... 00z update...

medium on timing of northern site cig vsby improvement tonight.

High on all else.


Preliminary point temps pops
Athens 46 60 41 45 60 30 20 70
atlanta 47 56 41 45 70 20 20 80
blairsville 39 48 33 44 90 10 10 70
cartersville 44 54 38 45 80 20 20 80
columbus 55 64 47 52 60 40 30 70
gainesville 44 56 39 43 80 20 20 70
macon 55 64 46 50 60 50 20 60
rome 44 54 37 44 90 10 20 80
peachtree city 51 58 42 47 60 30 30 80
vidalia 61 66 50 54 40 40 20 30

Ffc watches warnings advisories

Short term... Snelson baker
long term... .30
aviation... Baker

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHDS1 - Strom Thurmond Dam, SC 63 mi63 min E 1.9 G 6 47°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Milledgeville, Baldwin County Airport, GA5 mi68 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist54°F51°F94%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from MLJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNE3E4NE4E5E5E6E4E5E7E7SE5E7SE4E5CalmE5E4E4E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmS3CalmSW3SW4SW4CalmW4SW3W5W3W8W6W7NW11NW5NW8NW8NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3
2 days agoSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW6W10SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Robins AFB, GA
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