Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 4:57 AM   Moonset 7:02 PM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 933 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Thu - SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.Fri - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Showers and tstms likely. Fri night - W winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Sat - NW winds 10 kt. Sat night - W winds 10 kt. Sun - W winds 10 kt. Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 77 degrees.

AMZ300 933 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - Atlantic high pressure will remain across the region through mid week. A cold front will move through the area Friday bringing cooler conditions heading into the weekend.

FXUS62 KCAE 080238 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1038 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A brief lull in thunderstorm activity is anticipated through early Wednesday, with increasing chances of showers and storms towards the end of the week. Potential for strong to severe storms will exist on Thursday and Thursday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier conditions return for the weekend.
Expect generally above average temperatures through the latter half of the week before transitioning to near or slightly below average during the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
A weak shortwave aloft continues to move through the primary mid-level ridge axis which is triggering some scattered strong thunderstorms across western and central NC. A broad cirrus shield aloft continues to push over our area, south of the deep convection and as of 00z, our cumulus deck has completed dissipated; instability across SC is generally limited and will only continue to drop more over the next few hours. So based on the current water vapor imagery, radar, and hi- res guidance, the best forcing from this shortwave should continue to remain north of our area, across NC, with broad height rises thanks to the ridge positioning. So PoP's are falling off quickly and confidence in any showers-storms in our area is low. The only question of note is the deeper convection-MCS back across GA, which is not being handled well by the hi-res guidance. The general steering flow aloft is turning more northwesterly on the back-edge of the shortwave around the ridge axis which may allow this MCS to move into eastern GA. But CIN rapidly increases and instability drops off quickly across eastern GA, so even if the complex does sustain eastward, severe potential is low overall.



SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Active short term period is on tap, with multiple chances for potential severe weather. This threat is primarily centered on Thursday, where damaging winds and large hail are possible with strong thunderstorm development.

09z RAP forecasts a fairly complex, expansive 500 hPa trough centered across the central Plains with a shortwave trough exiting into the northeastern US followed by another emerging into the central Plains south of the center of the low. Ridge axis is forecast to be atop the Carolinas, shifting eastward through the day. Recent CAM guidance has begun to show a leftover MCS progressing eastward across the TN Valley towards the Appalachians by 12z. There is quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding this, but we will address that momentarily. As the ridge axis shifts eastward it will be followed by a strong, zonal southern stream 250 hPa jet streak with the left exit region emerging over the central Carolinas by 00z Thursday. As southwesterly flow increases, an EML with 7-7.5C 500-700 hPa lapse rates will push over northern SC and southern NC, yielding 2000+ j/kg of MLCAPE across the northern FA as early as 18z. Soundings are quite impressive, with EML and deep layer shear supportive of potential severe convection.

Large scale forcing is primarily going to be focused to our northwest across the OH Valley, leaving some question marks as to whether or not we actually are able to see convection initiate in the northern FA. The severe risk is definitely conditional, which is why it is important to note the spread amongst guidance as to whether or not a convective system makes it to the Appalachians tomorrow morning. Forecaster confidence will increase in potential severe convection tomorrow afternoon if an outflow boundary from decaying convection makes it into western NC. This would be able to focus low-level forcing to initiate convection into the favorable thermo environment across the northern FA. But until details become more concrete, it is hard to say whether or not we'll certainty see convection tomorrow up there. Low-end Chance PoPs seem appropriate at this point. Highs will be quite warm given nice southwesterly flow at the surface, so look for highs in the lower 90s.

Wednesday night through Thursday night looks very active, with higher confidence in at least a couple rounds of potentially severe convection. MLCIN will likely settle in across much of the forecast area after 11p Wednesday, allowing much of the convective threat to shift north of the forecast area. Then we turn our attention to the northwest. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain rich, with steep mid-level lapse rates helping maintain easily accessible instability ahead of an expected line of convection approaching from the west. Most pieces of guidance show this crossing the appalachians Thursday morning and decaying in western NC. Ahead of this, it is likely that capping over our forecast area should help to keep any prior convection at bay and allow for significant destabilization to develop - potentially on the order of 2000+ j/kg of MLCAPE again. The question is again whether or not convection initiates during the afternoon hours. Cold front will slowly approach the region through the afternoon. While there doesn't look to be significant synoptic support across the area, both the GFS and NAM are showing a 700 hPa shortwave pushing across the Carolinas.
Combine that with moderate instability with the surface cold front/remnant outflow boundary and the thinking is that convection will be more widespread than either model is currently showing during the afternoon hours. Temps should get into the mid 80s ahead of the convection.

Another round of convection is possible on Thursday night, which may be the highest confidence this forecaster has in any of these rounds. The cold front looks as if it will continue to slowly move southward and almost stall across the area by Thursday night, with a strong shortwave pushing atop this with high MUCAPE values along and south of the front as the shortwave pushes eastward. This should yield at least widespread, elevated convection that will likely push into the area late Thursday night and early Friday. Uncertainty abounds about this given the uncertainty during the day on Thursday, so it is hard to comment on the potential severity of the convection. However, a severe risk certainly looks to continue into the overnight hours on Thursday as elevated instability will likely remain in place. So to summarize: forecaster confidence in several rounds of convection is moderate, with overall confidence increasing with each time step from Wednesday to Thursday to Thursday night. SPC has a Marginal Risk in place tomorrow and a Slight Risk on Thursday, which makes sense given uncertainty regarding both days. Given the widespread instability expected across the area, severe convection is definitely possible in each of these rounds. Clarity will be added over the next 24-36 hours as more model guidance takes what actually happens into account.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Won't spend a ton of time focused on this considering the threat for convection on Wednesday and Thursday. It does look like the front will slowly push through the area on Friday, with drier air and high pressure filtering into the region over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to to push eastward and out of the area during the day on Friday. Really tough to discern whether or not this convection will be severe given the uncertainty preceding it, but it is possible that more strong storms occur on Friday. Temps will likely return back towards normal, with highs in the low to mid 80s through much of this period. Guidance shows dry weather through early next week before moisture and southwesterly flow return early next week and offer up more substantial rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period.

No convection to worry about this evening with cumulus dissipating with the loss of heating, although cirrus shield continues to slowly move overhead through the early overnight hours. A 25 knot low level jet should help keep the boundary layer mixed and surface winds in the 3 to 5 knot range overnight which should help preclude fog concerns.

Winds should pick up to around 10 knots by 15z from the southwest as deep southwesterly flow develops with low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley with afternoon convection expected to remain mainly north of the terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Active weather with mainly diurnal convection each day through Friday. There's potential for more widespread severe storms on Thursday. Brief CIG/VSBY restrictions and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorms that affect the terminals.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
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Tue -- 12:23 AM EDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:23 AM EDT     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:51 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     -1.74 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
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Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Bluff Plantation
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Tue -- 05:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:08 PM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bluff Plantation, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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