Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:04 PM   Moonset 2:16 AM

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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 1038 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Fri - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Fri night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sat - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - N winds 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. A slight chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less.
charleston harbor water temperature 77 degrees.

AMZ300 1038 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will persist into Friday. A storm system will affect the area this weekend, followed by high pressure from the north next week.

FXUS62 KCAE 170204 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1004 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday and especially on Saturday with unsettled weather likely lingering into Sunday. A cooler and drier air mass moves in for Monday and Tuesday with temperatures rebounding during the middle of next week as another ridge moves in from the west.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Dry mid and upper levels, with some low-level moisture, will remain this evening and into tonight. Satellite PW estimates are around 1" with surface dewpoints across the area in the 60s. Some moisture increase is possible aloft late tonight into Friday morning ahead of the next system, with mainly some cirrus moving across the region.
The potential for patchy fog development is somewhat unclear, since the approaching cirrus may disrupt radiational cooling enough to inhibit its formation. Models are not overly excited about visibility reductions, so confidence is low but it cannot be ruled out completely given generally calm boundary layer conditions and dewpoints depressions forecast to be less than 2 degrees. That said, overnight lows drop into the mid 60s tonight.

SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
PWs will begin to increase in advance of the slow moving trough, progged to push through the region over and through the region Friday night through Sunday. Clouds will increase as a result of the increasing moisture, and this should hold temperatures down into the low to mid 80s for highs for most. Rain is expected to begin developing in the late afternoon with more widespread coverage likely as isentropic lift increases across the area ahead of the shortwave trough. Lows overnight should remain in the upper 60s given the rain and cloud cover. Saturday's forecast is at least interesting, but skepticism regarding overall severe threat is fairly high. While ensemble guidance is fairly bullish with probability for some instability & shear across the southern FA, clouds are expected to be widespread and with at least some rain remaining across the area, it is uncertain whether we'll be able to destabilize enough or not.
Synoptic forcing looks good, but there is not a strong, definite low-level forcing mechanism that would focus convection. CSU probabilities are elevated across the southern FA and that is definitely the spot if we have severe convection Saturday. Highs on Saturday are very dependent on cloud cover, but should range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s across the FA. Some shower activity will probably hang around thru the overnight hours, with lows falling into the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Continue to expect showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough swings overhead. The cool mid-level temps could actually yield a favorable environment for strong thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, so we will need to keep an eye on model trends over the next couple of days. There after, cooler air pushes in on Monday and maybe Tuesday as surface high pressure ridges into the region. Some indication of weak wedge conditions setting up on Monday but it is so climatologically unfavored this time of year that we will need more model guidance to actually delineate whether or not that happens.
Ridging is expected to push over head through the remainder of the period, with seasonally low chances for rainfall and above normal temps by this time next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High-level clouds are expected to filter in beginning overnight, gradually becoming more broken/overcast and lowering through the TAF period. Ceilings are anticipated to remain in VFR at all terminals, but AGS/DNL could flirt with MVFR ceilings close to 17/00z. With low-level moisture remaining in place overnight, MVFR visibilities are possible at the fog prone AGS and OGB. A few showers are also possible late in the TAF period for AGS/DNL so have included VCSH. Can't rule out a shower late at the other terminals, but confidence is too low at this time to include any mention at this time. Winds are expected to be calm to light and variable through around 13 or 14z, then become southerly to southwesterly from 5 to 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and associated restrictions remain possible through Sunday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

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Cuckolds Creek
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Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     2.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:00 AM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:58 PM EDT     2.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cuckolds Creek, Combahee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Ashepoo
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Thu -- 01:09 AM EDT     1.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:33 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:46 PM EDT     1.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ashepoo, Ashepoo River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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