Friday, July28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
James, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:22PM Friday July 28, 2017 12:58 PM EDT (16:58 UTC) Moonrise 10:51AMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1015 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 pm edt this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of today..SW winds 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 ft... Then 2 to 4 ft this afternoon. Isolated showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft...then 4 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming se 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 kt...becoming s. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1015 Am Edt Fri Jul 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift farther offshore through today. A strong cold front will approach from the nw tonight and push across the local waters and offshore during Sat. High pressure will follow late Sunday thru the early to mid-week period of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near James, SC
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location: 33.31, -79.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 281426
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
1026 am edt Fri jul 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area Saturday, then move through
Saturday night. High pressure will then build into the area
from the northwest and persist for the first half of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The weak offshore trough will push farther offshore and
dissipate as another upper shortwave trough and pre-frontal
trough approach from the west. This will help delay the sea
breeze and keep it closer to the coast today. Main forecast
challenge will be coverage of showers and thunderstorms given
some subsidence behind the offshore system and slower sea
breeze. We maintained just a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the area given the uncertainty although
mesoscale boundaries could ultimately lead to a bit greater
coverage later this afternoon. The modified 12z chs sounding
indicates CAPE over 3000 j kg and dcape over 1500 j kg so
cannot completely rule out isolated severe storms. Otherwise, it
will be a warm and humid day with highs poised to reach into
the lower- mid 90s inland with upper 80s near the coast.

Dewpoints in the lower- mid 70s will yield heat indices up to
the mid 100s, which will be below the heat advisory criteria of
110.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Tonight: a rare, mid-summer cold front will approach from the
northwest early Saturday as a deep 500 hpa trough propagating
across the great lakes phases with a cyclone meandering across
eastern quebec. 28 00z guidance suggest the bulk of the quasi-
geostrophic forcing and corridor of strongest upper difluence
will pass off the north across north carolina and northern south
carolina, but the tail end will brush area late tonight into
early Saturday. Expect most of the evening hours to remain dry,
but rain chances will be on the increase overnight as the cold
front approaches. The nam12 is the most aggressive in dragging a
line of intense pre-frontal showers tstms across much of
southeast south carolina and southeast georgia this evening and
lingering well into the overnight hours, while the GFS and
ecmwf with support from the latest nssl-wrf are much less
aggressive and several hours later. Will discount the nam12 for
now given as there could be some convective feedback mechanisms
at work and trend the forecast closer a more conservative
gfs ECMWF blended solution. Pops will range from 40-50% across
interior southeast south carolina to 10% in the savannah-darien-
ludowici corridor. Lows will range from the mid 70s inland to
around 80 at the beaches.

Saturday: an upper level trough will be establishing itself over the
east coast. The bulk of it's energy is over the northeastern states
where naefs anamolies are 2-3 standard deviations below normal for
this time of year. At the surface, a cold front will approach the
area from the northwest in the morning. Ahead of the front, deep
moisture is in place. Models show pwats approaching an impressive
2.5" while naefs indicates mean integrated WV transport about 2-3
standard deviations above normal for our area. Lift will increase in
advance of the front, aided by the exit region of a jet streak
forecasted to start moving over our area late in the day. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the front,
starting inland and then moving towards the coast throughout the
day. SPC has our area under a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms. The limiting factor may be instability due to
abundant cloud cover. The GFS shows mlcapes peaking ~2,000 j kg far
inland late in the afternoon with showalter indices of -2 to
-4. With that in mind, a few severe storms are not out of the
question, with the main threat being damaging winds. The main
concern could be the heavy rainfall with the storms. While they
should be moving at a decent speed, if multiple storms move over the
same area flooding could become an issue, especially if they occur
around high tide in charleston, which is in the early afternoon.

Precipitation will diminish during the evening and overnight as the
front moves through the area. However, remnant showers should persist
across the coastal locations, especially south of savannah.

Sunday and Monday: models show the front becoming stationary far to
the south of our area and high pressure building in from the
northwest. Models hint at a small chance of precipitation, mainly
along the coastal locations south of savannah and the forecast
reflect this. The remaining portions of our area can expect to be
dry. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. But the more
noticeable feature will be dew points in the 60s, making it feel
much less humid and much more comfortable for this time of year.

Long term Monday night through Thursday
The stationary front will remain far to our south with high pressure
to our northwest. Our area should remain mostly dry through Tuesday.

By Wednesday models hint at increasing moisture across our area, and
potentially showers thunderstorms. This trend continues into
Thursday. Though, models differ on the precipitation potential. The
highest pops are along the coastal areas, especially in southeast
georgia.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
ExpectVFR to prevail for much of the period at both kchs and
ksav. There is a risk for showers and thunderstorms beginning this
afternoon at kchs sav, but especially at kchs tonight as a
shortwave passes by. However, confidence is too low to justify
a mention for the 12z tafs.

Extended aviation outlook: showers and thunderstorms associated with
a cold front are expected to bring periods of flight restrictions
Saturday.VFR will return Sunday.

Marine
Today: southwest winds will increase today as a cold front draws
closer. Speeds look to peak up to 15 kt with seas building to 3
ft near shore and 4 ft offshore.

Tonight: pre-frontal surging will push winds into the 15-20 kt
range overnight as the front approaches. Gust potential looks
limited in the warm flow ahead of the front, so conditions look
to remain below small craft advisory thresholds. Seas will
correspondingly build, reaching 2-3 ft nearshore with 3-4 ft
offshore and portions of the charleston county waters.

Saturday: a cold front will approach from the northwest. Ahead of
the front, southwest winds are expected. The strongest of these
winds looks to be across amz350 where the gradient will be elevated.

Gusts could approach 25 kt, mainly across the northeastern portion
of the zone in the morning and early afternoon. It's borderline
whether or not a small craft advisory will be needed. Regardless,
showers and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon and evening.

Some of these storms could bring gusty winds. Following the storms,
winds will veer to the north northeast, with the frontal passage
overnight.

Sunday through Tuesday: the front is expected to remain stationary
south of our area while high pressure builds in from the northwest.

The general wind pattern will be from the northeast, with winds
shifting to the east by Tuesday. Seas will range from 2-4 ft,
highest far offshore.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Rjb
short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 26 mi74 min WSW 5.1 85°F 1012 hPa74°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 35 mi51 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 84°F1011.6 hPa
CHTS1 39 mi41 min NW 5.1 G 8 90°F 85°F1011.9 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 45 mi59 min WSW 1.9 G 4.1 86°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.6)74°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 47 mi41 min 1010.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC19 mi64 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F77°F75%1012.2 hPa
Moncks Corner Berkeley County, SC21 mi84 minN 010.00 miFair82°F75°F79%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5E9SE10
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1 day agoCalmSW3NE3E6E10
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2 days agoE4SE5SE3SE6S5S7SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina
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Jamestown Bridge
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Fri -- 12:30 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:37 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:00 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:16 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.50.91.21.31.210.80.60.40.20.100.20.611.21.21.10.90.80.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Hill Landing, Santee River, South Carolina
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Pleasant Hill Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:46 AM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:22 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:25 PM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:43 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.92.42.52.42.11.61.10.60.30.10.20.71.422.32.42.21.81.410.70.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.