Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:53 PM   Moonset 2:34 AM

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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 302 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Through 7 pm - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. Sun night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Mon - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 4 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 5 seconds. Mon night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 302 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A storm system will affect the area this weekend with an increased chance of showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure with accompanying dry weather will build in from the west for early next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 182208 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 608 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Unsettled weather continues ahead of a cold front that will cross the area later Sunday. High pressure then dominates through much of the coming week, with another storm system potentially impacting the area late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Earlier shower/tstm activity has ended. The risk for a few showers will persist overnight, possibly increasing a bit over the far southern areas Darien later this evening as a weak perturbation passes by to the south. Pops were lowered to 20-30% for the early evening update. Any mention of tstms were also removed as much of the area has been worked over from earlier convection. Some patchy fog could develop inland early Sunday, but elevated winds just of the surface could limit coverage and promote more in the way of stratus. Lows from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston are on track.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Sunday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be over the Southeast U.S. in the morning. It'll slowly shift offshore into the evening and overnight. The dominate cold front will be stretched along the SC coast and the I-16 corridor in the morning with ridging building in from the north and west behind it. This diffuse front may get hung up in the sea breeze if it is still nearby come midday, providing enhanced initiation for convection.

The main story for Sunday has become the clear threat for heavy rainfall. Deep moisture will remain in place across the region with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0" range. These values are above the 90% mark per SPC sounding climatology for CHS. They're also about 2 standard deviations above normal per NAEFS. With all of the moisture and lift in place, models are in good agreement that widespread showers will develop with increasing instability come midday. Very slow storm motions - less than 10 mph - and very high rain rates - perhaps on the order of 2 to 3 inches per hour - could bring localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4+ inches over the course of several hours in the afternoon. The flooding threat will be enhanced for areas that received 1-2+ inches from Beaufort County to the I-16 corridor and south on Saturday.

Monday: The mid-levels will consist of a positively tilted trough just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, and a ridge just to our west. The ridge will slowly build into our area as time progresses. At the surface, High pressure centered well to our north will build down the coast, with it's southern periphery making its way into our area. The High will bring drier conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny/clear. Low-level thickness values support temperatures in the middle 80s. But we went a little below this due to the northeasterly surface winds and the expectation that surface evaporation should limit temperatures. Highs should peak in the lower 80s. Lows should range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s closer to the coast.

Tuesday: A positively tilted mid-level trough will be just off the Southeast U.S. coast in the morning, while a ridge will prevail over the Southeast U.S. High pressure centered just to our north in the morning will shift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast as the day progresses.
Though, it's southern periphery will continue to dominate our weather. Subsidence will yield dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should rise to near normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Mid-level ridging will be over our region through Wednesday, followed by southwest flow on Thursday. A weak trough may pass to our north on Friday. Broad surface High pressure will stretch from just to our north into the Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday.
It's expected to shift offshore later Thursday. A cold front could approach from the northwest later Friday, possibly bringing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be trending higher, reaching into the 90s by Thursday.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
19/00z TAF Discussion: VFR this evening with an increased risk for MVFR cigs as daybreak approaches. There could be a little ground fog that develops, mainly at KSAV and possibly KJZI, but the best fog/stratus parameters look to remain to the west of all three terminals. The risk for showers/tstms will increase during the day Sunday as a cold front moves through. The best focus for showers/tstms looks to settle just south of KCHS and impacting KJZI and KSAV. A TEMPO for TSRA was included from 18-21z at KCHS to account for some coverage/timing uncertainties. Prevailing TSRA was mentioned for both KJZI (18-21z) and KSAV (20-00z).
Conditions were limited to MVFR for now with both cigs/vsbys holding above alternate minimums. However, lower conditions may eventually be needed as confidence in the timing, placement and intensity of showers/tstms increases.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE
Tonight: The sfc pattern should support south winds between 10 to 15 kt with seas 2-3 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: A weak cold front nearby will bring the potential for showers and storms with heavy rainfall and lightning Sunday afternoon. The cold front will push offshore later Sunday, with ridging building inland and troughing persisting well offshore through mid-week. The strongest gradient will occur on Monday morning, with wind gusts to around 20 kt possible across much of the coastal waters, and seas increasing to 3-5 ft (in mainly windswell) accordingly. The gradient then gradually weakens and seas gradually subside as the inland high becomes more dominate Tuesday and Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The combination of high astronomical tide levels and moderate to breezy NE winds will bring the potential for elevated tide levels early next week. Minor flooding is possible with the early evening high tide Monday mainly along the South Carolina coast.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Jamestown Bridge
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Sat -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:39 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:52 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jamestown Bridge, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Pleasant Hill Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:01 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pleasant Hill Landing, Santee River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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