Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pilot Point, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:28PM Friday May 24, 2019 8:28 PM CDT (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilot Point, TX
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Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 242335
afdfwd
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
635 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019

Aviation
00z tafs
similar flying conditions are expected over the next 24-30 hours
at local sites. All convection will stay northwest of metroplex
sites, but ongoing storms could cause some impacts for northwest
departures through 06z. Winds will remain gusty from 150-180
through approximately 03z, before decreasing some with nocturnal
decoupling of the boundary layer. Expect breezy conditions through
the night still, with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and
occasional gusts upwards of 15-20 kt.

MVFR CIGS return around 07z at kact and 09z at metroplex sites,
with timing uncertainty of + - 1 hour. While the probability of
ifr is non-zero, CIGS below 010 seem unlikely at this point.

Winds strengthen again from 160-180 through the day Saturday.

Diurnal mixing should lift scatter the MVFR deck toVFR levels by
approximately 16-18z.VFR should persist through the end of the
respective TAF periods.

Picca

Short term issued 316 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
through tonight
the forecast through the remainder of the afternoon into the
overnight hours will be similar to the last several days with
breezy conditions and periodic cloud cover. There may a few more
very isolated showers that percolate through the afternoon evening
before dying out. Most of this activity would be west of i-35.

Satellite and radar imagery shows thunderstorms developing across
west texas a little earlier than previous afternoons. This
activity is associated with continued ascent from a broad longwave
trough over the western u.S. And convergence along a well defined
dryline. The guidance continues to be in agreement on a subtle
disturbance in the southwest flow aloft crossing over northwest
texas this evening. This may support a little farther eastward
progression of thunderstorms through late evening. Any activity
would run into increasing inhibition through the evening hours as
it progresses eastward. We'll keep some 10-20% pops across our
extreme northwest counties to account for any activity that tries
to push eastward. Otherwise, most areas should be precipitation
free.

Overnight tonight, we'll see another intrusion of stratus after
midnight along with continued southerly winds. The clouds and wind
should continue to keep overnight lows in the low mid 70s.

Dunn

Long term issued 316 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019
this weekend through next Thursday
the memorial day weekend looks to remain warmer than normals(lows
mid 60s highs mid 80s) for the end of may with breezy and humid
conditions each day through memorial day. Highs will average
between the upper 80s to lower 90s, while early morning lows fall
to between the upper 60s and mid 70s. Otherwise, the better mid
level forcing in advance of a stagnant western CONUS longwave
trough will remain focused well to the west of the area -- with
an assist from convergence along the west texas surface dryline.

We will need to keep a close eye each evening northwest of a cisco
to bowie line in the case storms are able to maintain this far
east. Storms that develop across west texas look move northeast
with the mean steering currents into northwest texas and western
oklahoma. If any storms were to turn right of the mean motion,
they could maintain strong limits and maintain long enough to
reach our far northwest counties with a nightly 30-40 knot low
level jet axis setting up across areas west of i-35. That stated,
we believe the majority of the storms out west will dissipate and
not make it into our cwa. The main reason will be a stronger and
warmer elevated mixed layer(eml or capping inversion) due to the
western periphery of the nearby, mid level bermuda high. What we
will see is late night morning stratus with partial sunshine each
afternoon and early evening through Monday. In addition,
occasionally gusty south winds 15 to 20 mph will make outdoor
activities on area lakes and rivers a little rough at times due
to choppy open waters.

The longwave mid level pattern will transition to strengthening
southwest flow aloft over our area with occasional pertubations
moving overhead by late Tuesday and continuing through the
remainder of next week. This means temperatures should go back
toward normals in the 80s due to increasing chances for showers
and storms and more substantial cloud cover. Night periods will
continue with an early summer feel with the expected high humidity
levels at the surface and temperatures continuing to only fall
into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

At this time, the best chances for localized heavy rainfall and a
few strong thunderstorms will be Wednesday into Wednesday night
with the arrival of a late season cool front. This front is
expected to stall somewhere across the middle of the CWA mid week
as it looses it's support aloft. Exactly where this boundary
stalls remains uncertain, so I kept pops(rain chances) in the
chance category for now. It does appear the rain chances will
lower to more of a slight chance by the end of the week with a
the mid level flow aloft dampening and a shortwave ridge setting
up across the southern plains. This mid level ridge doesn't appear
overly strong, so I held these slight chances in the case some
resemblance of a surface boundary remains in place to help focus
an isolated storm or two to pop, especially during the peak
heating hours near the boundary.

05

Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 72 91 72 90 72 5 0 0 0 0
waco 72 90 71 90 72 5 0 0 0 0
paris 70 88 69 88 71 0 0 0 0 0
denton 71 92 71 90 72 5 0 5 0 5
mckinney 72 90 71 88 72 0 0 0 0 0
dallas 74 92 73 91 73 5 0 0 0 0
terrell 72 90 70 90 71 0 0 0 0 0
corsicana 71 89 70 88 71 0 0 0 0 0
temple 71 89 71 89 71 5 0 0 0 0
mineral wells 70 88 68 89 68 5 0 5 0 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories
None.

11 30


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Denton Enterprise Airport, TX15 mi35 minS 15 G 2110.00 miFair84°F64°F53%1012 hPa
Gainesville, Gainesville Municipal Airport, TX23 mi53 minSSE 710.00 miFair80°F66°F64%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from DTO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE14
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S12S10S7SE6SE13S12
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1 day agoSE10SE11S9S12S12S13
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2 days agoS7S5SE6S4SE6S7S4SE4SE3SE6S9S9S14S13S13
G22
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G28
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SE13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.