Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 3:31 AM   Moonset 3:39 PM

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FXUS64 KFWD 050448 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1148 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Sunday night/

Thunderstorms will continue to move across North and Central Texas overnight. Most of the storms have stayed below severe limits but we did received a few hail reports. We have seen impressive rainfall totals across portions of West Central Texas this evening with some amounts exceeding 5 inches in a few hours.
The highest total we have seen through late evening was almost 8 inches of rain at Hamilton. The eastern half of the CWA has not seen much rain this evening but it will come overnight with the arrival of a shortwave. We still anticipate the heaviest rainfall south of I-20 near and just north of a stalled frontal boundary, but with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches region- wide, just about any location could receive appreciable rainfall.
Therefore, we will keep a Flood Watch in place for the entire CWA overnight through Sunday morning. Storms will end from west to east Sunday morning with increasing subsidence on the backside of the departing shortwave. However, with the surface boundary stalling across parts of Central Texas and deep moisture remaining in place, we could still see a few showers and storms developing Sunday afternoon, especially across our Central Texas counties.
Any storms that do manage to form should dissipate during the evening.

Saturated ground and a relatively light wind Sunday night will promote fog development. Since low clouds will also be present, we don't anticipate widespread dense fog, but the visibility in some spots could fall to around 1 mile.

Temperatures tonight and Sunday night will remain mild due to plenty of moisture and clouds with lows staying in the 60s. Highs Sunday will slowly warm into the 70s to around 80 degrees.

79

LONG TERM
/Issued 322 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

Any lingering or secondary convection on Sunday will dissipate after sunset with the loss of instability. The return of warm/moist advection aloft, lingering moisture, and light east to southeast surface winds will lead to more drizzle and fog formation overnight. Will indicate some visibility drops of 1 to 4 miles in drizzle/fog but nothing dense at this time. Visibility will improve around midday with boundary layer mixing.

An active weather pattern will remain in place, however, due to the development of a longwave trough across the CONUS, the resulting cyclonic flow aloft, and the presence of a dryline to our west. Isolated thunderstorms may occur both Monday and Tuesday, but a strong capping inversion will keep storm coverage low and most areas rain-free. Hopefully this cap holds, otherwise surface based CAPE of 4000-5000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of effective shear will cause any storm which develops to become rapidly severe.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as a shortwave crosses the Plains and the dryline advances east into North and Central Texas. Convection developing near the dryline should begin farther east and become more widespread than previous days due to added lift associated with the shortwave. At this time, position of the dryline and convective initiation looks to be somewhere near the I-35 corridor. In addition, a cold front will slowly approach, which may provide an added focus for development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and deep layer shear will again be sufficient for the development of severe storms.

The front will sag south into Central Texas on Thursday, shifting convection and the severe threat south of the I-20 corridor as a second shortwave moves overhead. The front will continue to push slowly south, forcing thunderstorm development farther south into South Central and Southeast Texas on Friday. The upper trough will shift to the eastern third of the CONUS Friday into Saturday, sending a second push of cooler post-frontal air into the region and making for a dry and pleasant start to next weekend. Next Sunday may see a return of clouds and low rain chances in the afternoon and evening, but most locations should experience pleasant weather for Mother's Day.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms associated with a passing shortwave will continue to temporarily impact the D10 airports and Waco through the night.
Ceilings have been staying above 3000 ft but they will fall overnight, likely below 1000 ft by sunrise Sunday. Ceilings will slowly improve through the morning, becoming MVFR by mid-morning and VFR by mid-afternoon. Ceilings will remain above 3000 ft through Sunday evening but will fall again overnight Sunday along with patchy fog.

Numerous thunderstorm outflows overnight will cause the wind to be variable at times but the prevailing direction tonight through Sunday will generally be east to southeast. Since wind speeds will stay below 10 knots, a south flow traffic pattern should remain.

79


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 78 67 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 20 Waco 67 78 67 82 71 / 100 40 20 20 5 Paris 65 74 65 80 71 / 90 90 20 30 20 Denton 67 76 65 83 71 / 100 60 10 30 20 McKinney 67 75 65 82 71 / 100 80 10 30 20 Dallas 67 78 67 83 72 / 100 60 10 20 10 Terrell 67 77 66 83 71 / 100 70 20 20 5 Corsicana 68 80 68 85 72 / 100 50 20 20 5 Temple 66 79 67 83 72 / 100 40 20 10 5 Mineral Wells 64 77 66 86 71 / 90 20 10 20 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

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