Wednesday, June28, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Alvord, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 8:43PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 12:38 PM CDT (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:22AMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alvord, TX
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location: 33.36, -97.69     debug

Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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Fxus64 kfwd 281121
area forecast discussion
national weather service fort worth tx
621 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Ragged MVFR stratus has developed near the i-35 corridor this
morning. Intermittent ceilings below 2 kft will be possible at all
airports through mid morning and have maintained tempo groups at
dfw metroplex airports for these conditions. Stratus is a bit more
dense near waco, thus have continued the prevailing group through
mid morning beforeVFR conditions resume for the rest of the day.

South winds will increase through the afternoon hours to 10-20
kts with some higher gusts possible. All convection this afternoon
is expected to be well south and east of TAF sites so no precip
has been included. A return of MVFR stratus is expected once
again overnight and Thursday morning; have introduced these
conditions at all TAF sites beginning around 10-11z.


Short term issued 311 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
today through Thursday
the weak upper disturbance responsible for yesterday's scattered
showers and thunderstorms will drift a little farther to the east
today. This should result in fewer showers and storms across our
area with height rises building into north texas. The only
exception may be our far southeast counties, in closer proximity
to a weak surface trough near the coast, and any sea breeze
convective activity. Otherwise, most areas will be partly cloudy
today with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s.

A strengthening low level jet late tonight may result in a more
expansive low cloud cover by Thursday morning. Low temperatures
will also be a few degrees warmer with most areas in the mid 70s.

Thursday should be dry areawide as the pool of higher precipitable
water associated with the weakness aloft drifts farther into
louisiana. Increasing influence from the subtropical ridge to the
west will mean temperatures will continue to warm into Thursday.

Highs are expected to climb into the mid and upper 90s.


Long term issued 311 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
Friday through Monday
Friday morning will resemble a pattern more akin to that of
late spring. Gulf stratus will be transported northward by a 30-35
knot low level jet across a majority of north and central tx. The
lone exception may be across far northwestern zones where the low
level wind field is a bit more veered and not as impressive. The
likely breezy conditions during the early morning hours should
result in very mild overnight conditions with temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s. I don't expect a large degree of warm air
advection, so the potential for widespread morning streamer
showers looks low. Thus, i've kept pops generally low during the
morning hours.

Towards the afternoon hours on Friday, a summertime cold front will
make steady progress southward towards north and central tx. Most
medium and long range guidance remains insistent on developing a
surface low out across southwestern oklahoma and into western north
tx. The development of this feature will be an important player with
regards to both the afternoon high temperature and late evening and
overnight pop forecasts. If the surface low develops in line with
gfs, NAM and to a lesser extent the ecmwf, hot and humid conditions
can be expected with heat advisory-like apparent temperatures.

The development of the surface low will back the low level flow
tremendously resulting, maximizing low level convergence---likely
leading to prolific growth of late afternoon and evening
convection across southwestern ok and western north tx. If the
canadian is right, however, low level flow will veer rapidly to
the southwest, resulting in deep mixing and a more favorable
downslope component. In response, MAX temperatures will easily
approach and exceed the century mark across the northwestern third
of north and central tx. The canadian solution would also tend to
delay the onset of convection, until several hours after 00 utc
Saturday (Friday evening). At this time, it's hard to ignore the
consensus of the gfs, NAM and ECMWF with regards to the
development of the surface low trough to the west and the longer
term portion of the forecast follows this consensus closely. While
Friday MAX t's won't be quite as high as advertised by the
canadian, I do think that we will see some slight downslope
component to the wind and temperatures across the area will still
range in the mid to upper 90s to near 101 103 out across
northwestern zones. These temperatures, combined with the amount
of low level moisture likely to be in place, will result in
dangerous heat and a heat advisory will more than likely be

For Friday evening and into the overnight hours on Saturday morning,
all medium and long term guidance forecast a complex of storms to
develop along the stalled out frontal boundary near the red river.

With forcing from the entrance region of an upper jet, sufficient
low level convergence, the solutions forecast by these models
seem plausible, even if some of the QPF is a bit on the spurious
side. The complex of storms should generally move from northwest
to southeast initially under the influence of the mid-level
steering flow. With time, however, guidance advertises the
development of a 25-30 knot low level jet and this could allow for
preferred development on the western and southern sides of the
complex. Should this happen, there's a chance that nearly all of
north and central tx could experience some rainfall and as a
result, i've expanded slight chance pops southward into central
tx. As one may expect, there will be a severe risk with this
activity as CAPE values will climb into the 2,000 to 2,500 j kg
range with deep layer shear on the order of 30 to 35 knots.

Damaging winds will more than likely be the main hazard, but some
near severe hail cannot be discounted given the amount of deep
layer shear present. Rich moisture will also be in place which
will likely foster heavy rain and some potential flood issues.

The forecast becomes a bit more questionable during the day on
Saturday and will largely depend on the cessation of convection
during the overnight and early morning hours. In general, I feel
that the best chances for showers and storms will be out across
northeastern and eastern zones where the possible MCS should be
moving towards the east. Given the uncertainty on the south and
west extent of this mcs, however, i've elected to broad brush a
20 pop back across much of north and central tx. Given the likely
extensive cirrus canopy and potential for precipitation, i've
nudged afternoon MAX temperatures on Saturday downward,
especially across northeastern and eastern zones. The GFS and
ecmwf offer intriguing output as both models advertise a potential
second complex of storms late Saturday and into Sunday. The areal
coverage of pops associated with this potential storm complex
will be relegated mostly to the red river given the unknown
magnitude of available instability as well as strength of any low
level jet. Nevertheless, we will have to keep an eye on this. If
it appears more likely that two mcs's will come to fruition, it's
quite possible that there will be some flood flash flood
headlines required.

For Sunday and beyond---generally quiet weather conditions are
expected with temperatures returning to near seasonal averages as an
h5 ridge settles in across the region. It appears that this feature
will progress far enough to the east such that any nocturnal mcs
activity is confined to the ark-la-tex and mo valley and for now,
i'll go with a dry forecast.


Preliminary point temps pops
Dallas-ft. Worth 93 77 95 80 95 5 0 5 0 10
waco 92 74 94 78 95 10 10 10 0 10
paris 90 72 90 75 92 5 5 5 5 20
denton 91 74 94 77 95 5 0 0 0 10
mckinney 90 74 92 77 93 5 0 5 0 10
dallas 92 76 94 79 95 5 0 5 0 10
terrell 90 74 93 77 93 5 5 5 0 10
corsicana 92 70 90 75 95 10 10 10 0 10
temple 92 73 94 76 95 10 10 10 0 10
mineral wells 92 71 95 74 96 5 0 0 0 5

Fwd watches warnings advisories

26 24

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Decatur, Decatur Municipal Airport, TX9 mi44 minS 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1014.2 hPa
Bridgeport, Bridgeport Municipal Airport, TX15 mi44 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F67°F60%1014.2 hPa
Bowie Municipal Airport, TX17 mi64 minSSE 9 G 1610.00 miFair84°F69°F63%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from LUD (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE6E5SE6S8E8SE13
1 day agoS5E3SE4E5E6E6E5E4E4E3NE3SE5SE3SE3SE3CalmSE3E3E3SE5CalmCalmS3SE4
2 days agoE6E6E8NE7E9E6E7E4E3E5SE7E6E3SE5E4CalmSE5CalmNE3CalmE3E6SE5E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Fort Worth, TX (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.