Thursday, September21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
George, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:14PM Thursday September 21, 2017 5:24 PM EDT (21:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:20AMMoonset 7:25PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 306 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..N winds 10 kt or less, becoming E 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 306 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hurricane jose will spin nearly stationary off the mid-atlantic coast the next several days. Winds will remain relatively light across the local waters this week as the pressure pattern remains flat, but seas will build late in the week as hurricane maria approaches the bahamas, and se swell moves onto the east coast. Marie is expected to pass offshore of the carolinas next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, SC
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location: 33.37, -79.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211904
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
304 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Isolated showers and storms can be expected through Friday as
an upper trough lingers over the region. Seasonably warm and
dry weather will prevail this weekend into next week, as an
upper ridge expands over the area. Tropical storm jose spinning
off the new england coast will remain nearly stationary, but is
expected to weaken through the period. Hurricane maria will
curve to the north, remaining east of the bahamas Friday and
Saturday, passing offshore of the carolinas Monday through
Wednesday of next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 3 pm Thursday... Showers and storms dotting the radar as
anticipated with a fairly high degree of randomness... Only a
slight concentration along the nc seabreeze (though little
activity in coastal sc where CU fields first blossomed). Being
fueled by the pairing of cold temperatures aloft and our very
warm afternoon this activity will wane towards sunset, though
perhaps slower than normal due to the very steep lapse rates
these temperatures have yielded. The upper trough and cold pool
linger into tomorrow albeit in a weakening state. Isolated
showers and storms once again with fairly random coverage

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 3 pm Thursday... Weak mid level troughing aloft remains in
place through the period while surface high over the eastern
great lakes builds south. This pattern tends to support weak
diurnal convection, however mid level dry air and subsidence
will keep the region dry for much of the period. The only
exception will be possibility of diurnal convection lingering
into Fri evening. There is not really any shortwave energy
driving the convection on Fri and this should lead to activity
weakening with the loss of heating. Temperatures will run well
above climo with the exception being along the coast where highs
will only end up a few degrees above climo due to the sea
breeze northeast low level flow.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
As of 3 pm Thursday... A pleasant, seasonably warm and dry
extended forecast in the cards, provided no surprises arise in
the projected forecast track of hurricane maria, who is slated
to pass slowly north but well offshore of the carolinas Monday
through Wednesday of next week. Aside from this, a pronounced
upper ridge will dominate the synoptic pattern, providing the
warm and mainly dry weather. Cross-sectional analysis through
time shows exceptionally dry mid-level air through the long
range period, keeping pop values very low, in the isolated to
none category. The exception will be very late or just beyond
the period next Friday, when a highly amplified upper trough
begins to drop SE toward the east coast. This will begin to
increase rain chances, while associated shear aloft begins to
guide maria off to the NE away from the mid-atlantic coast.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Showers developing at this hour and they are
expected to generate lightning within an hour or two. They
will be very spotty in nature and never last long over a given
location and so have relegated to vc all terminals. Activity
will drop off or cease altogether around sunset. Most places
will probably have bouts of MVFR visibility late tonight. Lower
vis and perhaps even ceilings will be possible should any area
see more substantial rainfall.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of ifr conditions will be in the 0900-1200z timeframe each

Near term through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Pretty minimal conditions over the
marine environment. There is no well defined piedmont trough and
the normal west atlantic high is disrupted and displaced by the
circulations of jose and maria. Spectral wave plots still show a
predominant swell but dominant wave heights will continue to be
the diminutive wind wave through the period.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Winds will remain northeast through the
period as surface high over the eastern great lakes builds
south. Gradient will start to tighten a little later in the
period as hurricane maria moves closer to the region. Speeds
should be under 10 kt through Sat before increasing to 10 to 15
kt Sat night. Swells from maria will begin reaching the waters
late Fri or Fri night with seas building through much of the
period. Small craft headlines may be needed as early as fri
night and seem likely for Sat and Sat night with seas peaking
near 10 ft as the period ends.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 3 pm Thursday... Unfortunately for the marine community,
this period will pose treacherous wave conditions with hazardous
seas nearly a certainty as maria approaches and passes slowly
north, but off the sc nc coast. The slow movement north will
bring prolonged and dangerous marine conditions, as 5-8 foot
seas Sunday build to 6-11 feet early next week, remaining
elevated before a more notable subsiding trend late next week.

In addition to the large waves, N winds will likely gusts to 25
kt Sunday through early next week as maria passing slowly north
well offshore. This will only throw another layer of hazard on
top of an existing one. The energetic, fast moving long period
energy will instigate turbulence in area inlets during the
outgoing tides, and will produce larger than normal breakers
near sand-bars while expanding the width of the surf zone. This
will require multiple days of advisories, likely initiated by
the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 3 pm Thursday... High tide on the CAPE fear river downtown
will occur at 1127 pm tonight. There appears to be about a two
hour window of advisory-worthy coastal flooding. Advisory being
issued with the afternoon package 03-05z.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 11 pm edt until 1 am edt
tonight for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mjc
near term... mbb
short term... Iii
long term... Mjc
aviation... mbb
tides coastal flooding... mbb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 5 mi99 min S 8.9 82°F 1015 hPa75°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi54 min 1014.2 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 43 mi136 min S 7.8 G 12 80°F 82°F1015.8 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 58 mi84 min S 9.9 G 11 81°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.9)75°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC5 mi29 minS 310.00 miLight Rain81°F78°F94%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS6S3S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW4SW3W3CalmW3CalmCalmSE4S6S5S3
1 day agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W5W6W4W5SW6NW6W6NW3W5
2 days agoSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW8NW7NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, Sampit River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:54 AM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hagley Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Hagley Landing
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Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:30 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:38 PM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.