Thursday, March22, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
George, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:30PM Thursday March 22, 2018 5:54 AM EDT (09:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 323 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am edt this morning...
Today..NW winds 20 kt this morning, diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft this afternoon. Seas 2 ft near shore.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, except 2 ft near shore.
Fri..N to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
AMZ200 323 Am Edt Thu Mar 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Gusty offshore winds continue in the wake of low pressure far off the mid-atlantic coast. High pressure will build in today through Friday. Low pressure will approach from the west on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, SC
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location: 33.37, -79.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 220622
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
222 am edt Thu mar 22 2018

Low pressure far off the new jersey coast will lift farther away to
the northeast through the morning as canadian high pressure builds
in from the west. Well-below normal temperatures will continue for
the next several days. Low pressure will move across the carolinas
Saturday night and early Sunday bringing rain, followed by another
round of below normal temperatures by early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 220 am Thursday... Weak cyclonic flow continues across the area
with the old area of low pressure now far off the jersey coast. The
low will lift away to the northeast through the morning. Residual
stratocumulus will result in sct-bkn cloudy skies in some areas,
however downslope flow will help to erode the lingering low-level
moisture with mostly sunny skies on tap during the day through
tonight. Clear skies and less wind tonight may allow temperatures to
radiate to near freezing in some areas. Will hold off on any freeze
warning at this time given the areal extent of freezing temperatures
across any one county is confined to a handful of locations. The day
shift can re-assess with newer model data. Otherwise, high
temperatures today will be well below normal given the air-mass
in spite of good insolation.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 220 am Thursday... A winter-like feel will continue into the
weekend as this anomalously cool march continues. Friday will likely
be a pretty nice day locally despite highs a degree or two either
side of 60, as a dry column and dry W NW flow allow for abundant
sunshine through the evening. Things begin to change late on Friday
however. Surface high pressure which initially drapes across much of
the eastern CONUS will begin to retreat to the north as a warm front
lifts north from the gulf coast states. This front is extended from
a surface low which will be consolidating across the middle of the
country in response to a shortwave digging down from western canada.

This shortwave will race SE around the longwave trough over new
england through Saturday night, pushing the surface low offshore by
Sunday morning.

As this evolves, moisture will steadily increase in response to
moist advection within the lower portion of the column, forcing
thanks to PVA in the vicinity of the shortwave, and pacific moisture
streaming overhead within the cirrus level. Cloud cover will
increase Friday night into Saturday, with showers likely developing
by Saturday aftn. The surface low will race along the warm front,
which will then shift south as a cold front as the low moves
offshore. Guidance suggests most of the rainfall will occur behind
the cold front, with isentropic lift atop a developing wedge driving
much of the precip. This would lead to simply a cold rain, but with
deep column saturation QPF could be significant, 0.25 to 0.50 inches
is possible. Highs Saturday will struggle only into the low 50s
across nc zones, but may climb as high as the mid 60s far SW zones
depending on the exact timing of the warm front and WAA racing the
advancing cloud cover and showers. Mins both nights should be too
warm for any frost concerns, although some mid upr 30s are possible
Friday night across nc zones, depending on how quickly cloud cover
develops. Saturday night lows are likely to remain much warmer,
falling only into the mid 40s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Model differences with the next shortwave
are generally minor, however the ECMWF is stronger and a little
slower with the shortwave than the gfs. Although both models show
rain developing into Sunday, this probably explains the better
developed low-level thermal moisture advection fields shown on the
ecmwf. Pops have been increased to 50-60 percent for this period,
and it's looking more and more likely we'll see a widespread 0.20 to
0.30 inch rainfall event. The ECMWF shows a stable airmass through
the event.

The surface low should jump the carolinas early Sunday morning,
redeveloping just off the coast where low-level baroclinicity is
significantly greater than inland. Cold northerly winds should punch
southward behind the developing low. Sunday's high temperature
forecast is actually quite difficult since it's tough to know
exactly where the front will be located at 7 am, and temperatures
could actually fall throughout the day in the strong low-level cold
advection. A model blend gives mid to upper 50s across SE north
carolina and upper 50s to around 60 in south carolina, however that
could easily be 10 degrees lower if faster cold frontal movement
(like shown on the gfs) occurs. Light rain should taper off during
the afternoon with skies partially clearing Sunday night as moisture
thins from north to south.

Dry and unseasonably chilly weather is expected Monday and
Tuesday as canadian high pressure builds down the east coast.

Our 850 mb temps should hover in the +1c to +3c range both days,
between the 10th and 20th percentile for late march. Of
agricultural concern is a possible frost or even freeze event
coming up Monday night as surface winds drop off with the
incoming high. On Wednesday the surface high should finally move
off the east coast. A westerly component to the low-level flow
will finally bring warm advection and temperatures should pop
back to seasonal norms.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... High confidence inVFR conditions prevailing today
and tonight as high pressure builds in from the west. Through
10-14z the terminals could observe some sc with bases at or
above 5 kft before clearing occurs. Northwesterly surface winds
may be breezy at times with gusts up to 20 kts during the day,
and the return of light winds by the evening.

Extended outlook...VFR Friday into Saturday. MVFR ifr rain
developing Saturday night and Sunday. Conditions improving again
for Monday.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 220 am Thursday... Latest marine observations indicate
northwesterly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots.

These winds should begin to gradually subside as high pressure
builds in from the west during the day. Cut back the time of the
small craft advisory by a few hours as a result. Cold air
advection will persist and a bump up in winds to around 20 knots
is possible again tonight. The fetch direction will create a
range in seas with 5 to 7 footers expected away from the coast
through the morning, down to around 3 ft across the inshore
waters. 5 ft seas tonight will be likely while inshore seas of
2-3 ft are expected.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 220 am Thursday... Gusty NW winds greet the period but will
wane to 10-15 kts and veer to the N as high pressure ridges down
from the great lakes through the day. A more convoluted pressure
pattern develops Saturday as a warm front lifts into the area and
stalls in response to low pressure moving along it. This low will
then skirt overhead to become offshore by the end of the period,
dragging a cold front with it. The wavering of this boundary
combined with the low pressure means that winds will feature a
variety of directions Saturday, with a period of gusty SW winds
south of the front likely across sc waters in the aftn before ne
winds develop late. Speeds should be 10kts or less outside of the
narrow winds of SW winds, so seas are expected to be 1-3 ft most of
Saturday before amplifying late. After a brief period of 3-4 ft seas
early on the stronger NW winds, wave heights fall by Saturday to the
aforementioned 1-3 ft.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Low pressure redevelopment just off our
coast early Sunday will drag a front southward again in the
morning. Mariners should expect a sudden increase in north-
northeasterly winds as the front dives through, with small craft
advisory conditions developing and likely persisting through
Monday as strong canadian high pressure builds southward. Our
forecast shows 20-25 kt winds Sunday afternoon through Monday,
but it's possible there will be some 30+ knot gusts thrown in
there during the period of most rapid thermal advection Sunday
afternoon or evening.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for

Near term... Srp
short term... Jdw
long term... Tra
aviation... Srp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 5 mi69 min WNW 5.1 39°F 1017 hPa28°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi54 min 1020.2 hPa (+1.3)
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 58 mi54 min NW 6 G 8 41°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.4)30°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC5 mi59 minW 510.00 miFair36°F30°F81%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW9SW7SW7W12
1 day agoS14
2 days agoE3E3CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmE4E6SE5E5E4SE4E3CalmCalmCalmE3E3SE3CalmS3S6

Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, Sampit River, South Carolina
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Thu -- 01:08 AM EDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:28 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:39 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:39 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Hagley Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Hagley Landing
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     3.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:12 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:23 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.