Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
George, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:18PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:52 PM EDT (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:38PMMoonset 3:00AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1142 Am Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft, wave period 8 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers.
Sat..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Isolated showers.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers with tstms likely.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely through the day, then a chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1142 Am Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Tropical storm alberto, positioned in the southern gulf of mexico, should reach the gulf coast late Sunday night and Monday morning. Impacts will not be direct, but marine conditions will begin to worsen beginning late Sunday, as seas approach advisory levels.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near George, SC
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location: 33.37, -79.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 251709
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
109 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Warm and humid early summer conditions will prevail into the
holiday weekend, accompanied by scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. Tropical system alberto will move into the gulf
of mexico Saturday, reaching the gulf coast and stalling there
much of next week, before drifting north. For the carolinas,
expect periods of rain, heavy at times, late Sunday through
much of next week. With already wet ground, this may lead to
problematic flooding in some areas.

Near term through Saturday
As of 1045 am Friday... Faint frontal boundary remains oriented
east to west across SE nc and NE sc this morning, which may
reveal itself a bit better in developing CU convective fields.

Low level convergence resulting from a inland advancing sea-
breeze, will push the focus for showers and storms toward the nw
and N through the day, nearly clearing the forecast area by 6-7
pm. While SE nc may see convection, a sharp pwat gradient noted
in mhx chs raobs, and also evident in low-level water vapor,
will favor rain the higher coverage and intensity over NE sc.

Storm motion little faster today and pwats down a little bit,
so the localized flood threat overall is more limited today. It
appears the set-up is favorable for ocean showers or an isolated
tstm to brush the CAPE fear area overnight into daybreak
Saturday.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 am Friday... Western atlantic ridge will drift a
little further S and E this period. At the same time, low
pressure will be deepening as it moves slowly N across the
eastern and central gulf of mexico. Model consensus is that a
tropical or perhaps a subtropical area of low pressure will be
strengthening as it nears the gulf coast. The tropical cyclone
may be located somewhere between the western fl panhandle and
new orleans early Mon morning.

For the eastern carolinas, direct impacts from this system are
unlikely. However, a deep tropical flow of moisture will feed n
between the western atlantic ridge and the developing area of
low pressure, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values will likely peak near
or in excess of 2.25 inches which would be a record based on
upper air information dating back to 1948 at charleston, sc for
the waning days of may. Current forecast has average rainfall
amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches with the brunt of this falling
later Sun and through mon. Higher amounts are certainly possible.

For sat, expect the convection will be diurnally driven with the
seabreeze and piedmont trough acting as boundaries of initiation.

Typically, showers or a thunderstorm will threaten the beaches
during the morning through about midday and then move further
inland with the seabreeze. Areas further inland should be more
at risk for showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and
early eve. Moisture content of the atmosphere will be high on
sat, although not as high as later in the forecast period. Given
ridging in place and the lack of upper level support, will cap
pops at chance with no pops during the late eve and overnight.

For sun, will show convection increasing from S to N with
categorical pops overspreading the fa during the eve and
overnight. We have added heavy rainfall to the gridded forecast.

Given the antecedent conditions, we will be considering the need
for a flash flood watch with later forecast packages should our
confidence in a widespread heavy rainfall event continue to increase.

High temps will be in the upper 80s inland on Sat with lower to
mid 80s nearer to the coast with the beaches expected to top out
around 80. Lower to mid 80s should be common for highs on sun.

Lows both nights will be mainly in the muggy lower 70s with
perhaps a few upper 60s thrown in across some inland areas.

Long term Monday through Thursday
As of 300 pm Thursday... The pattern through the extended period
will remain very moist and supportive of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water values
in excess of 2 inches will remain through Thursday. Similar to
the several days, this moist airmass will be fed by deep
southerly flow between bermuda high pressure, and a trough axis
along the mississippi river valley extending into the gulf of
mexico. A contributing factor will be the northward progression
of a possible tropical or sub-tropical low pressure system
through the gulf of mexico. Although direct impacts from this
potential tropical system are not currently expected for our
forecast area, this feature will ensure a continued feed of
tropical moisture across the eastern carolinas.

Aviation 17z Friday through Tuesday
As of 18z... Isolated showers are occurring sw-w of kilm, and w
of kmyr. Confidence is moderate to high all coastal terminals
will remainVFR this afternoon. Worse case vcsh as showers
should develop inland, then move away from the coast. If a tempo
shower were to occur, highest confidence would be kilm. Other
showers are occurring se-s of kflo. There is higher confidence
of tempo showers with possibly an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon at klbt possibly klbt in the late afternoon. Will
show tempo MVFR with vcts in kflo TAF early afternoon, late
afternoon at klbt. Convection slowly dissipates 01-04z. As the
night progresses tempo MVFR CIGS will become possible at the
coastal terminals along with possibly an isolated shower. Tempo
ifr can be expected at the inland terminals.VFR expected at all
terminals after 14-16z with ssw-sw winds.

Extended outlook...VFR except for morning patchy MVFR ifr in
fog. Tropical moisture will be returning to the area sun-wed
with more widespread thunderstorms with periods of ifr
ceilings visibility possible.

Marine
Near term through tonight ...

as of 1045 am Friday... Se waves around 2 feet every 7-8 seconds
will mix with light to moderate southerly chop. This regime to
prevail today and overnight. Expect inshore gusts near 20 kt
between 2 pm-5 pm.

As of 300 am Friday... Easterly winds of ten knots or less will
continue through the morning hours across the waters. Later today
sea breeze influences and a final dissipation of a residual boundary
will switch winds back to the south increasing to 10-15 knots. These
conditions should prevail through early Saturday. Significant seas
will remain 2-3 feet.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night ...

as of 300 am Friday... Western atlantic ridge will drift a
little further S and E this period. At the same time, low
pressure will be deepening as it moves slowly N across the
eastern and central gulf of mexico. Model consensus is that a
tropical or perhaps a subtropical area of low pressure will be
strengthening as it nears the gulf coast. The tropical cyclone
may be located somewhere between the western fl panhandle and
new orleans early Mon morning. For the carolina waters, this
means deteriorating marine conditions, especially Sun night and
mon.

A robust seabreeze should bring wind speeds up to 15 to 20 kt
sat and Sun afternoon and eve. Seas will build from 3 to 4 ft
sat to 5 to 7 ft Sun afternoon and night. A SE swell on the
order of 7 seconds will be energized later Sun and especially
sun night. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are
expected to become widespread Sun night and this will result in
poor visibility.

Long term Monday through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Thursday... Southerly flow will persist across the
waters between bermuda high pressure and a low pressure system
that will be moving northward through the eastern gulf of
mexico. Conditions will depend on how much the low is able to
develop in the gulf, but the persistent southerly fetch and
strengthening gradient should support winds of 15 to 20 knots
and seas of 5 to 7 feet. By Tuesday, models suggest the
gradient will weaken a bit, which would allow winds to diminish
to 10 to 15 knots, and seas to slowly subside. Uncertainty is
higher than usual at this point, however, due to the potential
for the gulf low to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 8
near term... Mjc
short term... Jdw
long term... Rgz
aviation... Mrr 8


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 5 mi127 min ESE 8 79°F 1019 hPa73°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi82 min 1022.2 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 43 mi104 min ESE 9.7 G 12 78°F 78°F1019.7 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 58 mi112 min ESE 11 G 12 77°F 1019.4 hPa (-0.7)71°F

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC5 mi97 minESE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5SE5SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3E5SE8SE10E5E8E9
1 day agoNW5S3S6S5S5SW5S6SW3CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W6SW3CalmNE6SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, Sampit River, South Carolina
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Georgetown
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Fri -- 01:28 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:45 AM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:30 PM EDT     4.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.10.20.9233.63.83.532.21.30.5-0-0.20.31.42.63.64.14.13.83.12.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hagley Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Hagley Landing
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Fri -- 02:12 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:18 AM EDT     3.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:33 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.40.10.31.22.33.13.53.53.12.51.810.3-0.1-0.10.61.72.83.63.93.83.32.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.