Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:39PM Monday March 18, 2019 6:28 PM MST (01:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 182221
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
321 pm mst Mon mar 18 2019

Update
Updated aviation section.

Synopsis
Warm and dry conditions the next couple days will give way to more
clouds and rain chances as a weather disturbance crosses the area
Thursday. High temperatures in the lower to middle 80s over the
lower deserts will fall back into the 70s later this week before
slowly warming again over the weekend. Not all areas will see rain
this week; and even those who do should not expect much
accumulation.

Discussion
A high amplitude, western CONUS omega block will only slowly
translate eastward into the center of the country throughout the
week with a pronounced, full latitudinal ridge axis shifting from
the rockies into plains. The resulting flow pattern will allow the
western trough portion of the block to propagate into the southwest
and yield a period of somewhat unsettled weather surrounding the
Thursday time frame. At least for the next 48 hours, dry conditions
and slightly warmer than average temperatures will prevail with only
a gradual increase in thicker high clouds.

Models remain consistent showing the PV anomaly and primary cold
core crossing into SE california Thursday morning, then slowly
ejecting past the four corners region by Friday afternoon. The
overall depth of the trough and magnitude of cold air is not
particularly unusual for the middle end of march though the negative
tilt and divergent fields are quite favorable. Likely the greatest
limiting factor will be moisture flux and availability as the
current forecast trajectory remains disassociated from a more robust
subtropical feed. That said, there is notable differences among
recent operational GFS iterations and naefs means with respect to
total column pwats and QPF over lower elevations. The 12z GFS does
indicate a brief period of better theta-e frontal organization
collocated with a plume of 0.75 inch pwat and 6 g kg mixing ratios
while the majority of ensemble members aren't nearly as bullish.

Would not be surprised if more ensemble members trend towards the
gfs, though even so lower elevation rainfall would be under 1 4
inch (and most areas little more than a few hundredths).

The best potential for precipitation looks to be Wednesday night at
lower elevations and during the daytime hours Thursday at higher
terrain in an upslope regime, as the best combination of upper level
dynamics and lower mid level moisture advection come together. In
reality, the bulk of the precipitation should end up falling over
the northern half of arizona, though all forecast models suggest
more light showers versus a shield of steady rainfall. Temperatures
will take a good dip on Thursday with highs falling back closer to
70 degrees. As the trough exits to the east on Friday, temperatures
will climb back into the middle upper 70s. Shortwave ridging should
then take over into the weekend with highs approaching 80 degrees
over the warmest desert communities.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt...

southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
expect light winds to prevail this afternoon through Tuesday
morning favoring downvalley drainage patterns during the nighttime
and morning hours. Anticipate southeast directions to prevail
Tuesday afternoon over south-central arizona with southerly
directions prevailing over southeast california and southwest az
(anticipate gusts of 15-20kts over the lower colorado river
valley). No significant cloudiness but there will be few-sct
altocumulus (bases AOA fl100) as well as some increasing cirrus
Tuesday afternoon.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Tuesday through Saturday:
a warm weather pattern will predominate through Wednesday before
a weather system moves through the area for the second half of the
week. Expect above normal highs to continue in the low-mid 80s
through Wednesday. Highs will then cool to the low-mid 70s by
Thursday with slight chances of precipitation moving into the
lower deserts and better chances expected for the the higher
elevations to the east and north where there is also a fair chance
of wetting rains. Min rh values in the mid to upper teens through
Wednesday will improve to greater than 20 percent beginning
Thursday. The next system will also bring breezy southerly winds
out west on Tuesday with gusty southwesterly winds spreading
throughout the region on Wednesday and lingering into Thursday.

Breezy conditions are expected again on Saturday as well. Good
overnight recovery will improve to excellent by Thursday.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... 18 kuhlman
aviation... Aj
fire weather... Sawtelle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi37 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F32°F17%1011 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair80°F28°F15%1012.1 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi41 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F24°F13%1013.2 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair81°F21°F11%1011.2 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair79°F32°F18%1011.8 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi41 minVar 510.00 miA Few Clouds81°F37°F21%1012.9 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi90 minN 010.00 miFair81°F32°F17%1011.5 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi41 minVar 345.00 miA Few Clouds79°F28°F16%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N4CalmE3CalmCalmSE3E4E4CalmE3CalmCalmE5E11E9E6NE4E4CalmW6E4E5SE4
1 day agoSE8E6E8E10SE7SE7E6E10E8E9NE11E11E11E12E13E11E53NE6Calm43Calm3
2 days agoNE7NE8NE8NE10E10E9E11E10E11E10NE10NE13E12E12E18
G23
E15E11E10E7NE16
G21
NE13
G17
NE8NE9E10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.