Sunday, March18, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:40PM Sunday March 18, 2018 10:20 AM MST (17:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:30AMMoonset 8:00PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181552
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
850 am mst Sun mar 18 2018

A weather system will produce lingering light showers over higher
terrain areas east of phoenix today, and also bring cooler high
temperatures. Below normal temperatures will continue through
Monday,but should warm back into the 80s by the middle of the week.

Another weather system will provide an opportunity for rain and
cooler temperatures later in the week.

Within a larger western CONUS trough, a notable PV anomaly was
lifting from northern arizona into SE utah allowing a frontal
boundary to surge into eastern arizona. The associated midlevel
moisture gradient was also pushing eastward quite rapidly this
morning with pronounced subsidence and a dryslot punching into
central arizona. Light showers will remain likely over the next
several hours across gila county in conjunction with vorticity
advection and orographic ascent, however a "crisp" early spring day
will result for the remainder of the area. Based on satellite
presentation and short term observational trends, have refined some
of the forecast for the remainder of the day clearing conditions
quicker and resulting in a delightful afternoon. In fact, highs this
afternoon only in the 60s could be the coolest afternoon the area
experiences for the next 7-8 months (last time phoenix had a high in
the 60s in april was 2012).

Previous discussion
354 am mst Sun mar 18 2018
for Monday through Wednesday, guidance remains consistent in calling
for high pressure aloft to build over the deserts southwest bringing
dry conditions along with a sharp warming trend. The warmer lower
deserts will climb to near 80 degrees by Tuesday and into the mid
80s Wednesday. It will be generally sunny on Monday, but there will
be periods of mainly high clouds spreading through the ridge Tuesday
through Wednesday resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies. Clouds
will not be thick enough however to keep the high temperatures from
rising into the 80s.

For the latter portion of the work week - Thursday into Friday -
model guidance is still consistent in calling for another pacific
trof to move through the area, bringing a chance of showers to the
lower deserts. However, there remain some serious timing issues
especially between the operational GFS and the ecmwf. GFS is about
12 hours faster than the ecmwf, calling for the main precip event in
the phoenix area to be during the day Thursday while the ECMWF calls
for the main event Thursday night into Friday morning. As an example
of the discrepancy, the gfsbc MAX temp guidance for Thursday gives a
high of just 71 degrees in phoenix with the showers frontal band
moving thru. The ecmwfbc, from the slower european, calls for a
high of 88 degrees.

Gefs ensembles are all over the map at this point and very chaotic;
nbm pop guidance is broad brushed and naefs pops are high but mainly
in the chance category, favoring timing of the slower european. Due
to these issues, we have a broad brushed forecast, with 20-30
percent numbers for much of Thursday Thursday night, then tapering
off on Friday. If we had good confidence in exactly when the front
would move through and rain would fall, the pops for that 6 hour
window would be in excess of 50 percent. Due to low confidence, pops
are much less than that for any given 6 hour window. Hopefully these
issues will be resolved soon.

Drier westerly flow aloft returns over the weekend for partly to
mostly sunny skies and no chance of rain, but heights do not rise
all that much, so high temperatures stay closer to seasonal normals.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
today skies will be partly cloudy with moderate to breezy westerly
winds at 8-12kt with gusts of 15-20kt, especially during the
afternoon. Bkn low cloud decks near 6-8k should scatter-out early to
mid morning. Light winds are expected by this evening with a deck of
high cirrus clouds passing through the area this evening and

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
moderate westerly winds at 8-12kt will will turn to the north by mid
to late morning. Meanwhile expect periods of sct-bkn high clouds
this afternoon and tonight.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Tuesday through Saturday...

expect warm and dry conditions ahead of a weather system that will
pass across the region on Thursday with drier air returning by the
end of the week. The weather system on Thursday will bring a chance
of light rain from SE ca to az. Seasonably warm daytime highs on
Tuesday will increase to the mid 80s by Wednesday and then drop back
down into the upper 70s to low 80s on Thursday. Min rh's near 10%
range on Tuesday are expected to spike up to the 22-28% with
Thursday's system. Breezy southwesterly winds gusting to 17-22kt
from SE ca to SW az are also expected with Thursday's system.

Generally fair overnight recoveries should improve to fair to good
by Wednesday night and Thursday night.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Mo iniguez cb
aviation... Sawtelle
fire weather... Sawtelle

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi30 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F28°F32%1017.6 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi28 minVar 610.00 miFair56°F28°F36%1017.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi34 minS 810.00 miClear57°F28°F33%1019.3 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi34 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F28°F33%1019 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi31 minWSW 640.00 miA Few Clouds55°F28°F36%1018.6 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi34 minSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds57°F28°F33%1019 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi28 minSSW 510.00 miFair55°F27°F34%1017.2 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi31 minSW 545.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F30°F38%1019.3 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi83 minSSW 1010.00 miFair55°F27°F35%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm43W10
1 day agoSE6SE463S9CalmNW5W8
2 days agoSW7SW13W12SW15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.