Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 7:42PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 9:47 AM MST (16:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 7:20AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 191158
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
458 am mst Wed jun 19 2019

Update
Updated 12z aviation discussion.

Synopsis
The weather pattern over the next week will remain uneventful with
near normal temperatures lasting through Thursday before gradually
cooling to below normal levels. A weather disturbance to our north
late this week will bring breezy to locally windy conditions, but
it will also lead to high temperatures falling to just below 100
degrees this weekend.

Discussion
Seasonably dry and warm conditions will continue into early next
week with the main forecast concern being elevated fire danger
conditions Thursday and Friday. A deep upper level low is set to
slowly dig southeastward through the interior west tonight into
Friday with models now showing a shortwave trough diving southward
into the desert southwest on Saturday. The large scale trough
will increase flow aloft beginning Thursday with widespread breezy
conditions and gusts of 20-25 mph during the afternoon. Winds
aloft will be maximized on Friday allowing for afternoon gusts as
high as 30 mph across southern arizona and near advisory level
across portions of southeast california. The breezy to windy
conditions and afternoon rhs around 10% will definitely enhance
the fire danger threat both days. Temperatures today and Thursday
will be right around normal before dropping a couple degrees
Friday as the trough continues to sag southward toward the region.

Latest model runs are now a bit more aggressive with the
shortwave trough diving through the great basin Friday and the
desert southwest Saturday into Sunday. Saturday will again be a
fairly breezy day, but fire weather concerns will be dampened
somewhat with a slight increase in rhs and cooler temperatures.

Highs Saturday have now been lowered into the upper 90s, or 8-10
degrees below normals. After the shortwave exits to the east on
Sunday, the flow aloft will become zonal and temperatures will
start to creep upward again. Another deep pacific trough is shown
moving into the northwest u.S. Early next week, but it looks to
stay well to our north, more so than previous model runs. This
will likely allow the subtropical high to our south to begin to
edge northward into our region with 500mb heights surpassing
590dm by the middle of next week. Temperatures early next week
should still be a few degrees shy of normals, but the latter half
of next week may end up being rather hot. There are still no
obvious signs of any meaningful monsoon activity getting close to
our region next week, keeping arizona dry through the end of the
month.

Aviation Updated at 1158 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt; and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
vfr conditions with clear skies and diurnal winds generally
remaining below 10 knots will prevail through the TAF period.

Winds will be less gusty today than they were yesterday as winds
aloft will be very weak, but a brief period of 15-20 knot gusts
may occur this evening for the phoenix sites as westerly winds
aloft increase. Over southeast california, SE winds will prevail
at kipl aside from a period of SW winds this evening, whereas
southerlies will persist at kblh with gusts to 15-20 knots this
afternoon. Otherwise, no aviation concerns are expected.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Friday through Tuesday:
a weather system skirting north of the districts will allow notable
cooling of temperatures over the weekend and into early next week
with reading pushing back below normal. Despite this, afternoon
humidity values will still fall near 10% with mostly poor overnight
recovery (only locally fair recovery at high elevations and parts of
se california). In response to the weather disturbance late in the
week, afternoon winds will be quite breezy Friday with gusts 25-30
mph common. While remaining below critical thresholds, these winds
combined with low humidity values and very dry fuels will result in
an elevated fire danger both days. Somewhat lighter winds with
merely the typical upslope gustiness will be more common through the
weekend and early next week.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not expected.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Kuhlman
aviation... Hopper
fire weather... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi57 minSSE 710.00 miA Few Clouds87°F27°F11%1011.1 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi55 minS 310.00 miFair86°F24°F10%1011.6 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi61 minS 610.00 miFair86°F30°F13%1013.9 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi61 minN 010.00 miClear88°F28°F12%1013.9 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi54 minVar 410.00 miFair87°F27°F11%1011.3 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi55 minVar 310.00 miFair85°F28°F13%1011.5 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi61 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds86°F32°F14%1013.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi1.8 hrsE 410.00 miFair82°F28°F14%1011.8 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi58 minSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds86°F26°F11%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE336S9
G16
S9SE7
G14
NW34NW7NW10
G18
NW10NW7W8W7NW8N5N4CalmE4E6E5E7SE8SE7
1 day agoS10SE11
G16
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SE10
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G21
W9NW6W7
G17
NW12
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W12W15W14W10W8N6NW5N3SE5SE8SE8E9SE5SE4SE3
2 days ago3CalmS4--NE63SE6W8NW10
G16
W11W11W10W11W13W11E5N4SE7S7S9E5SE7SE7SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.