Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 5:42 AM   Moonset 8:25 PM

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FXUS65 KPSR 081735 AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1035 AM MST Wed May 8 2024

UPDATE
Updated 18z Aviation Discussion.

SYNOPSIS
The weather pattern will continue to support near normal temperatures through Friday with daily breezy conditions. The clear to mostly clear skies will persist into the weekend with a warming trend pushing temperatures to above normal and highs potentially topping out around 100 degrees as early as Sunday across portions of the lower deserts.

DISCUSSION
An expansive upper level trough will continue to impact the majority of the Western U.S. over the next several days. A low pressure center over the Northern Plains is now retrograding westward into Montana, while a shortwave trough is also digging southward across Utah. This shortwave will continue to weaken as it tries to move into Arizona today, but it will at least influence winds today while keeping temperatures near seasonal normals. Northerly gusty winds of 25-35 mph are expected to affect the Lower CO River Valley this morning with gusty winds of 20-25 mph expanding eastward across southern and central Arizona during the afternoon hours.

The upper level trough will continue to influence the Desert Southwest through at least Friday with forecast temperatures hovering within the normal range today and Thursday. Starting Friday, some weakening of the trough will allow for some rising heights aloft and the beginning of a warming trend through the weekend. By Saturday, NBM forecast highs show readings topping out in the mid 90s over much of the lower deserts.

A Pacific ridge is then favored to move over much of the Western States by Sunday, but ensemble guidance still shows lingering influences of the trough over Arizona. The ridge should be enough to boost lower desert temperatures across southeast CA on Sunday up to around 100 degrees, while the Phoenix area stays in the mid to upper 90s. There is also evidence of a slight moisture increase Sunday into early next week across Arizona, but in reality any low potential for shower/thunderstorm activity would only exist across the Arizona high country. Guidance eventually shows the ridge briefly taking over across all of the region early next week, but it will be in a weakening phase as H5 heights are at most 578dm. However, this may be enough for some of the south- central Arizona deserts to see highs nearing 100 degrees. Beyond early next week, model spread increases considerably with some members showing a weak low center moving over or near the region, while others show potential for a stronger ridge. Forecast confidence in temperatures during the latter half of next week is quite low due to these discrepancies, but seasonably dry conditions are expected to continue.

AVIATION
Updated at 1735Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under clear skies. Typical diurnal wind tendencies will continue, with easterly winds becoming westerly late this morning/early afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20-25kts should affect terminals during this afternoon into the early evening before relaxing mid evening and easterly winds developing once again during the overnight hours tonight. Clear skies and light winds shifting to westerly expected late tomorrow morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Gusty winds continue at KBLH associated with a frontal passage this morning/early afternoon and will be the primary weather issue under clear skies. Wind directions will will be northerly at KBLH with gusts up to 30-30kts expected to subside this evening at around 01z. Light northerly winds are expected for KIPL through this evening where they will become light and variable throughout the night into tomorrow morning starting at around 00z.

FIRE WEATHER
Breezy and continued dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days with wind gusts around 20-25 mph for most locations this afternoon and early evening and up to 20 mph on Thursday. The combination of dry fine fuels, low RHs, and breezy conditions will likely create elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon hours today. Stronger winds of 30-40 mph at times will also be possible this morning across portions of southeast CA and far western AZ. MinRHs will be in the 5-10% range across the lower deserts to 10-15% across the higher terrain. Overnight recoveries will be in the 20-40% range. Expect temperatures near seasonal normals through Thursday before warming to above normal over the weekend as seasonably dry conditions persist.

PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...None.
CA...None.

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