Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:25PM Saturday November 18, 2017 12:20 PM MST (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 5:59PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 181547
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
845 am mst Sat nov 18 2017

The streak of drier weather and above normal temperatures will
persist through next week. A weak front will bring somewhat cooler
conditions to the area this weekend, though unseasonable warmth
will quickly return next week. In fact, near record warmth will be
possible by the middle of next week and the long holiday weekend.

A positively tilted trough has exited into the cntrl SRN plains this
morning dragging a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area,
albeit in a decaying stage. The bulk of cold advection through the
middle and lower troposphere will be focused over NE arizona with
just a glancing blow further south leading to only a modest reduction
in high temperatures this afternoon. The more pronounced influence
of this front has been a surge of very drier air southward, and more
aggressive reductions in dewpoints and humidity levels were taken for
the remainder of the day. Regardless, still looks like a delightful,
picture perfect weekend for the region.

Previous discussion
450 am mst Sat nov 18 2017
latest GFS indicates only weak cold advection at 850 mb today,
essentially a glancing blow of slightly cooler temperatures for
the weekend. However, temperatures will remain several degrees
above normal. In addition to the slightly cooler conditions, model
pwats will drop precipitously today, yielding dewpoints generally
in the teens by this evening across central arizona and into the
single digits Sunday afternoon across southeastern california.

Models remain in excellent agreement next week, depicting gradual
height thickness rises associated with a building ridge across
the intermountain west. This will translate into a warming trend
through late in the week with naefs 500mb heights approaching
records Tuesday-Thursday, particularly in the yuma vicinity.

Latest blended guidance continues to suggest that temperatures
will approach or even exceed daily records by thanksgiving
(phoenix record for nov 23rd is 87 in 1950; and for any
thanksgiving day is 87 on nov 23 1950 and nov 27 2014) and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Pops remain near
0 percent and it is very likely the long dry stretch will continue
into at least the end of november, which would result in a
meteorological fall without any measurable rainfall at sky harbor
airport (last occurred in 1938).

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
winds this morning will initially be very light and somewhat
variable, but should increase and come out of a northeasterly
direction by mid morning. Synoptic flow will push winds more out
of the north today as afternoon winds shift out of the northwest
and then slowly work back around out of the northeast for a brief
time this evening. Wind directions will eventually become more
easterly late tonight. Aside from some few to sct high cirrus
later today, skies will remain clear.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
very little aviation concerns through the TAF period under mostly
clear skies. Northerly winds this morning will become gusty at
kblh by late morning before gradually decreasing by late this
afternoon. Gusts around 25 kts are likely at kblh while much
lighter winds (aob 10 kts) affect kipl.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
increasing high pressure aloft will bring warming conditions
through the middle of the week with temperatures reaching into the
middle to upper 80s across the deserts starting Wednesday.

Unusually dry air will also settle into the area through the
middle of the week with a slight boost to moisture by late in the
period. Minimum rh values will fall between 10-15% through
Wednesday and 15-20% for late in the week. Light winds will
dominate for the duration of the forecast.

Record highs for selected dates next week:
date phoenix yuma
---- ------- ----
nov 22 89 in 1950 91 in 1950
nov 23 87 in 1950 87 in 1950
nov 24 88 in 1950 89 in 1950
the phoenix record high for any thanksgiving is 87 on nov 23 1950
and nov 27 2014.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Mo hirsch
aviation... Kuhlman
fire weather... Kuhlman
climate... Mo

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi30 minN 710.00 miA Few Clouds73°F35°F25%1019.3 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi28 minNNW 410.00 miFair74°F34°F23%1019.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi28 minN 510.00 miClear75°F28°F18%1021.3 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi34 minN 910.00 miFair75°F30°F19%1020.7 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi88 minN 1430.00 miClear72°F28°F20%1021.7 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi34 minNE 810.00 miA Few Clouds73°F30°F20%1021 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi28 minVar 410.00 miFair74°F27°F17%1019.1 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi29 minNNW 745.00 miClear73°F30°F20%1021 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi83 minNNE 1010.00 miFair72°F27°F19%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN3S6CalmN3N6N6N6CalmE3CalmNW3SW4SW3CalmSW4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW5SW5E9N7
1 day agoS4CalmSW3CalmSW4SW3CalmNW3CalmE5E5E7E8E7E8E9E7E6E7SE7E7SE7N43
2 days agoSE3CalmNW3NW4CalmSW3SW3SW5N4CalmCalmE6E5SE3SE5SE5E4E7E4E5E4E7E6SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.