Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 7:31PM Saturday May 27, 2017 3:01 AM MST (10:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus65 kpsr 270901
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
200 am mst Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Very typical memorial day holiday weather will persist through the
weekend with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the 90s and
lower 100s. Temperatures will peak on Monday and Tuesday before
minor cooling starts beyond the middle of next week. Some scattered
mountain storms will also be possible by the middle of the week.

Discussion
Lower than normal heights aloft persist this morning from southern
canada into the rockies as a trough axis shifts into the plains and
the overall pattern temporarily becomes progressive. Into early next
week, a split flow type of pattern will materialize over the western
conus as high amplitude ridging extends into western canada while an
active subtropical jet undercuts this ridge into the southwest. The
initial influence of this ridge will be a rapidly warming of the
atmospheric column, however the introduction of subtropical waves
will allow moisture and clouds to restrict any additional warmth
while also creating an environment supportive of mountain storms
over eastern arizona.

Low level thermal profiles will rebound beginning today as nearly
steady state h5 heights near 579dm this morning slowly increase to
near 585dm by Monday. Temperature guidance spreads are very narrow
through the weekend providing very good confidence 100f temperatures
will be breached Sunday followed by the warmest day of the week on
Monday. While certainly no where near record breaking, highs some 5f
above normal appear very likely Monday and a day typically filled
with more outdoor activities and Sun heat exposure.

Through at least the first half of next week, an active subtropical
jet will bring several lower amplitude disturbance into the
southwest domain. The details regarding depth intensity and moisture
availability remain varied among operational and ensemble member
output. The 00z operational GFS remains on the more aggressive side
bringing lower heights and somewhat stronger forcing mechanisms
further south. Ensemble means more closely resemble the 00z ecmwf
and cmc though impacts on end result sensible weather forecasts are
minimal and limited.

Regardless, ahead of these series of waves, substantial backing of
winds in the h9-h7 layer will occur through the rio grande valley
and four corners. Almost all model output suggests notable moisture
advection up the rio grande valley and juxtaposed with weakly forced
ascent associated with the shortwaves, isold sct thunderstorms will
be possible along the rim, white mountains, and portions of southern
gila county. The largest uncertainty lies with the areal extent and
westward push of the best quality moisture plume. Initial look at
sref probabilities suggest good chances of storms, however
deterministic model QPF is quite underwhelming. This may be a case
of more elevated echoes and lightning versus accumulating rainfall.

The forecast for the latter half of next week still remains quite
uncertain with model spread growing in a partially blocked flow
pattern. The operational 00z GFS still remains a more aggressive
outlier though has backed off the most unlikely outcome of a deep
closed low. The 00z ECMWF and gem continue to look far more
agreeable when compared to other medium range guidance keeping an
ill defined height weakness and troughing signature lingering
through the SW conus. Moisture will mostly be relegated to new
mexico in persistent westerly flow (i.E. Little to no chance of
rain), though the general weak cyclonic flow pattern will favor
temperatures hovering close to climatology.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl, and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
dry westerly flow aloft will result in clear skies and lighter
afternoon winds through Saturday. Through 06z sat, clear skies. West
wind 5 to 10 knots. From 06z Sat through 20z sat, clear skies. Light
south to southeast wind under 7 knots.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
a return to above normal temperatures will occur Monday as high
pressure builds across the great basin. Dry conditions will also
persist though winds will generally be light. A weak pacific low
pressure system will develop and move eastward towards the southwest
and could result in a slight chance for thunderstorms across the
higher terrain of east-central arizona, including southern gila
county Monday through the latter portion of the work week. Any
associated rainfall totals would likely be very light and there is
some potential for isolated dry lightning strikes. As the weak low
moves east and across the area, high temperatures will gradually
trend back towards seasonal normals. Minimum rh values across the
deserts will mostly range between 10 and 18 percent each day with
higher amounts over the higher terrain of southern gila county
expected as moisture returns from the east.

Spotter information statement
Spotter reports will not be needed through the middle of next week.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Mo
aviation... Cb
fire weather... Cb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi70 minE 710.00 miFair76°F30°F18%1009.5 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi68 minSE 410.00 miFair74°F32°F21%1010.2 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi68 minS 510.00 miFair74°F25°F16%1009.6 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi66 minESE 810.00 miFair70°F24°F18%1012.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi2.1 hrsS 910.00 miFair78°F27°F15%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrSE8S11S14S7S11
G25
S11
G24
S13
G18
S15
G18
W8
G17
SW6SW12
G18
SE8W7
G19
W11
G16
W11
G17
W15W10W8SW5W7NW5SE7E7E5
1 day agoN4E5E3SE6N6E6NE3SW7W5W9
G17
W9SW14
G23
W14
G23
SW18
G26
SW15SW14
G19
W12SW12SW10S8SE5CalmS11S5
2 days agoE7E5E7E8E7SE5E8SE733W8W14
G19
SW12
G24
W15
G21
SW18SW15SW12SW15SW10SW5W8W9SW9W6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (6,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.