Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 6:22PM Sunday September 24, 2017 7:18 PM MST (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 10:26AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 242138
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
238 pm mst Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
Under sunny skies, temperatures will slowly warm over the next few
days though readings will remain slightly below average. An area of
low pressure may pull moisture back into eastern arizona by the
middle and end of the week supporting some late season showers and
storms.

Discussion
An anomalously strong low pressure system across ut is producing
a cool and dry northwesterly flow across the desert southwest.

Temperatures across the area are generally a degree or two warmer
than those observed 24 hours ago, while dewpoints are running a
few degrees lower. Below normal temperatures are again expected
overnight under clear skies with a few spots outside of phoenix
again flirting with lows below 50 degrees.

The aforementioned low pressure system will weaken overnight while
lifting northeastward. Another weak vort MAX will dive through the
broad western CONUS trough Monday, but will only result in some
high clouds during the day. Despite the presence of the vort max,
latest guidance indicates that there will be a net gain in mid-
level heights, translating into a few degrees of warming.

Previous discussion
Model trends continue to indicate that a jet streak topping an
amplifying east pacific ridge will dive into the mean western
conus trough and induce a strengthening vorticity maximum and
deepening area of low pressure across the desert southwest
Wednesday and Thursday. This evolution will promote lower heights
cutting off from the northern stream and a temporary rex block
across the rockies. As a result, operational models and their
corresponding ensembles still exhibit a large amount of
variability with respect to the placement of the low and
subsequent moisture transport.

Given the apparent source region of the moisture from the east side
of the continental divide and current expanse of extremely dry air
residing in the southwest, skepticism is rather high that deep
quality moisture supporting storms outside of mountain areas will
truly come to fruition. More robust outflows may be needed to mix
moisture through the boundary layer, and current forecast soundings
are not terribly optimistic about this outcome. Regardless, the
overall pattern is supportive for convection during the latter half
of the week though could not get too aggressive with pops given all
these uncertainties. While both the 00z operational GFS and ecmwf
eject the closed low eastward by the weekend, ensemble members
exhibit a much larger spread in outcomes. Historically, blocking
patterns are not modeled very well so confidence is somewhat low
towards the end of the forecast period though it does certainly look
like much warmer temperatures (a return to 100f) are on the horizon
for the weekend and beyond.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
a very dry airmass to keep skies mainly clr through the entire taf
period at both the phx area and SE ca terminals. Sfc high pressure
over the great basin to keep gusty northerly winds going at kblh
through Monday. Winds at kipl to remain mainly out of a westerly
to northwesterly direction through Monday as well. Winds to mainly
follow typical diurnal trends at the phx area terminals.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Tuesday through Saturday:
troughing will persist over much of the west, receiving
reinforcing shots of jet wind and energy from the north. One batch
of energy will eventually cut off over southern ut northern az
turning low level flow south-southeasterly by the early week. Warm
air advection will warm sfc temperatures while also drawing up
moisture into the region. Humidities will be on the low side with
minimum readings falling into the 10-25 percent range with fair-
good overnight recoveries through midweek. Daytime humidities will
increase back into double digit readings by Wednesday, and north
of 15 percent for most locales by Thursday. Some increase in
humidities is likely beginning Wednesday. Anticipate north and
northwesterly breeziness Monday and Tuesday over southeast ca and
southwest az. More noticeable easterly winds will develop over the
eastern az districts midweek and beyond as the upper low remains
over the region. Slight chances for precipitation return from
maricopa county eastward for Wednesday and continue for much of
eastern arizona through week's end.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Hirsch
previous discussion... Mo hirsch
aviation... Nolte
fire weather... Nolte


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi27 minSW 310.00 miFair81°F16°F9%1005.8 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair78°F17°F10%1006.7 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi31 minN 010.00 miClear81°F17°F9%1008.1 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi31 minW 610.00 miFair79°F10°F7%1007.8 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ17 mi31 minWSW 540.00 miClear79°F21°F12%1008.1 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi31 minWSW 710.00 miClear81°F17°F9%1007.8 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi25 minSSW 510.00 miFair78°F12°F8%1006.1 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi31 minWNW 720.00 miClear79°F17°F10%1008.5 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi80 minS 510.00 miFair83°F12°F7%1006.2 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW4W8SW5SW5SW4SW3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmSW4W4W5SW43SW11
G15
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NW5Calm5SW6SW3
1 day agoW14W10W8W9W9W44CalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmCalmW3Calm6W14
G22
6W5W8W12NW12
G19
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2 days agoW10SW14
G18
W11SW15SW12
G21
SW5SW4S3W4E4SE6SE5E3CalmNW63NW5W7
G14
W9SW12NW10W10NW9W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.