Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 5:46PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 12:38 AM MST (07:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:09AMMoonset 5:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus65 kpsr 160457
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
957 pm mst Mon jan 15 2018

Update
Updated aviation section.

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the region most of the week with
above normal temperatures and dry conditions. A weak disturbance
will move across the area Tuesday night resulting in only limited
precipitation chances at higher elevation locations. A more
significant storm system will move through the area over the weekend
bringing much cooler temperatures, stronger winds, and a chance of
light precipitation.

Discussion
Skies have mostly cleared as of early afternoon after a period of
high cloudiness during the overnight hours. Currently, ir
satellite imagery and surface obs show a backdoor cold front
edging its way westward through new mexico. Temperatures this
afternoon will top out a few degrees cooler than the past couple
days as heights aloft have fallen slightly due to a weak
disturbance breaking through the persistent ridge over the region.

Clouds will again increase tonight and likely be thicker than
last night and last through much of Tuesday as two other weak
shortwaves pass through the desert southwest. The combination of
increased clouds and some cooling working into the eastern half of
arizona from the backdoor cold front will result in highs near 70
for Tuesday across the south-central arizona deserts, but middle
70s across southeast california. Rebuilding of the ridge will
occur starting Wednesday with higher heights and warming through
at least Thursday.

Previous discussion
A high amplitude omega block will largely remain in place this
week over north america with deep negative height anomalies
circulating about the gulf of alaska and great lakes,
respectively; and a pinched ridge aligning roughly along the
continental divide. Throughout the week, several lower amplitude
shortwaves will attempt to break through the ridge axis, and will
act to help start displacing both the ridge amplitude and the
downstream longwave trough. Eventually by the end of the week, the
overall CONUS flow pattern will become far more progressive with
a weather disturbance finally revisiting the forecast area.

A more significant change in the weather will arrive Friday and
Saturday with a progressive wave and well defined cold front rapidly
move through the southwest. Although confidence in this wave moving
through the area remains high, timing of the wave and attendant
moisture available for ascent carries more uncertainty. Considering
ensemble spread and historical trends, there is probably a tendency
for the operational GFS to advertise features moving too quickly;
and prefer timing a bit closer to the ecmwf.

Also with the wave emanating from the wnw and only deepening after
crossing onshore, there's a much better likelihood that quality
moisture will be limited and only steeper frontogenesis will squeeze
out what's available. GEFS plumes only show a handful of members
producing QPF at lower elevations; and this system may be one where
orography and proximity to the immediate cold core play more a role
than anything else. Given this concept and aforementioned
uncertainties, saw no reason to justify large changes in pop
forecasts yet.

In all likelihood, this weather system will yield higher impacts
unrelated to precipitation, but rather wind and temperatures. The
most notable impact will probably be the potential for strong winds
across southeast california (and perhaps into western arizona)
around fropa. Timing of the front will obviously determine what
locations receive the strongest winds, but also may help dictate the
magnitude as frontal passage around sunset in SE california would
promote mountain rotors and stronger winds. And naturally, any
stronger winds would also result in areas of blowing dust only
exacerbating the travel issues. Once timing issues can be resolved
later in the week, will start hitting the dust impacts harder.

Otherwise, an abrupt cooling trend will be the other notable feature
with this weather system as conditions will briefly touch near or
below average this weekend. Although the overall pattern does not
conceptually match a widespread freeze event, certainly the
outlying, sheltered valley locations will be flirting with the
freezing threshold Sunday and Monday mornings. Given the progressive
nature to this wave, its unlikely anything colder would occur and
more likely, a moderating trend will quickly follow next week.

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl and
southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
an approaching upper level weather disturbance will lead to
increasing cloudiness tonight but ceilings will remain AOA fl150
as the brunt of the disturbance passes north. Surface winds will
be light the rest of the night. Light winds will continue during
the day Tuesday near and west of the lower colorado river valley.

Meanwhile over south-central az, easterly breeziness will develop
between 16z-18z before weakening after 21z. Anticipate patchy
blowing dust over near agricultural areas of pinal county and far
south east metro phoenix between 17z-21z.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Wednesday through Sunday:
above normal temperatures will continue through Thursday as the
forecast area remains dry. Winds will generally remain light
through Thursday. Afternoon minimum humidity will range between 18-
30% through Thursday, even for the higher elevations, while
overnight recoveries will range between 40-60%. Breezy windy
conditions look to materialize Friday Friday night as a relatively
dry weather system moves through our area. Clouds and humidity
levels will increase Friday. The weather system may bring a isolated
to scattered showers to south central arizona Saturday with some
higher elevation snow possible east of phoenix. It will also turn
much cooler Saturday into Sunday behind a passing cold front with
high temperatures into the low to mid 60s. It will turn drier over
the weekend as minimum rh values fall into the teens. It will be
less windy Saturday, but local breezes from the west to northwest
will still occur mainly during the afternoon. Even less wind is
expected Sunday.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Kuhlman
previous discussion... Mo
aviation... Aj
fire weather... Wilson cb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi47 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F37°F49%1017.4 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair53°F37°F57%1018 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi4.9 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F35°F34%1017.9 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi3.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair59°F35°F42%1018.3 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi3.9 hrsWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F37°F48%1018.3 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi45 minVar 310.00 miFair56°F34°F44%1017.5 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi50 minESE 520.00 miClear48°F35°F62%1019.3 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi40 minNNE 510.00 miFair51°F38°F63%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrCalmE5SE3SE3CalmE4E4E5E4SE5SE4SE4CalmSW4CalmCalmW3W7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE4NE3CalmCalm3NE9NW5NE11E10E9E4CalmCalmW4NW8W3W3W4SW4W3
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmNE3NE13
G17
E13NE11NE11NE9NE7NE6NE3N5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.