Saturday, March24, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 6:44PM Saturday March 24, 2018 12:50 AM MST (07:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:49AMMoonset 1:14AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug

Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 240505
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
1005 pm mst Fri mar 23 2018

Update Updated aviation discussion.

A cooling trend will continue through the weekend with high
temperatures dropping into mid 70s by Sunday. A fairly dry
weather system will bring another slight chance of showers early
next week while keeping temperatures well below normal.

Latest water vapor imagery shows that drier air in the mid and
upper levels continues to overspread the region in the wake of a
short-wave trough that moved through the region this morning.

Breezy conditions have developed and drier air has been mixed down
to the surface. Dewpoints have dropped this afternoon generally
into the 30s, while temperatures are a few degrees cooler than
those observed 24 hours ago.

Models remain in good agreement through the weekend, depicting a
longwave trough in the eastern pacific translating eastward
across the western states. This will yield a gradual decrease in
heights thicknesses, resulting in a cooling trend and a return to
below normal temperatures by Sunday. Forecast temperatures reflect
the median of the multi-model ensemble and fall somewhat below
the national blend. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow in the upper
levels will transport high clouds through the region, particularly
Saturday. The cyclonic flow will also support seasonably breezy
conditions, though still well below wind advisory criteria.

Previous discussion
Model guidance, including operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF and
gefs ensemble guidance, continue to be consistent in their depiction
of the weather pattern across the desert southwest Sunday into the
early part of next week. They continue to forecast a deep, cool but
relatively dry upper trof to set up and deepen over the desert
southwest Sunday into next Monday. The trof remains open wave and
with a mostly overland trajectory very little moisture is entrained
into this system. Thus no rain is in the forecast through Monday; we
can expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies along with a sharp
cooling trend. High temperatures over the lower deserts will drop
both days, bottoming out in the upper 60s to low 70s by Monday.

For Monday night through Wednesday, the trof forms a closed upper
low that gradually spins up and moves steadily southeast across the
area. Again, this is a dry low but there looks to be sufficient
moisture to allow for a few light showers mainly over higher terrain
areas north and east of phoenix Tuesday through Wednesday night. By
Wednesday night the upper low center is forecast to move into new
mexico leaving a dry northerly flow behind in its wake. High temps
will stay cool on Tuesday then start to warm Wednesday as skies
clear. Most of the warming Wednesday will be over the western
deserts where 500mb heights climb the most and skies are sunniest.

Look for central desert highs to stay below normal and int the mid
70s Wednesday with warmer western deserts rising into the low 80s.

Stronger high pressure aloft will build into the desert southwest
Thursday for sunny skies and high temperatures climbing back into the
low to mid 80s.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
no aviation concerns through the TAF period. Breezy conditions
will subside this evening, and then pick up tomorrow near 18z,
with gusts up to 20 kts anticipated. High clouds will gradually
increase through tomorrow afternoon, but mainly staying AOA 25
kft. There will be a brief period overnight tonight into tomorrow
morning were a few cloud decks will develop between 8 and 10 kft.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
light westerlies will prevail overnight before breezy conditions
develop at kipl near 16z and at kblh near 19z. Westerly gusts up
to 20 to 25 kts is anticipated at both terminals through late
Saturday evening. High clouds AOA 25 kft will gradually increase
through tomorrow afternoon.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Sunday through Thursday...

a large area of low pressure will build across the desert
southwest Sunday into early next week, but overall dry conditions
will prevail. The low will usher in a cooling trend with high
temperatures falling into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
deserts by Monday. Slight warming will then take place through
Wednesday but highs will stay below normal and in the 70s. Some
moisture will sneak into south- central arizona and by Tuesday
afternoon there will be a slight chance of light showers across
higher terrain areas north and east of phoenix. For the most part
minimum rh values will stay a bit low and mostly in the teens
each day, reaching into the mid 20s over the higher terrain areas
east of phoenix. We can expect breezy conditions each day during
the afternoon hours, favoring the west to northwest over the
deserts with slightly higher values across ridgetops and over
favored higher terrain locations.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Discussion... Hirsch
previous discussion... Cb
aviation... Hernandez
fire weather... Kuhlman

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi60 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F28°F20%1011.7 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair66°F32°F28%1012.5 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi4.9 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F23°F15%1013.9 hPa
Chandler, Chandler Municipal Airport, AZ16 mi4.1 hrsN 010.00 miFair72°F30°F22%1013.9 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi4.1 hrsWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F26°F16%1013.5 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi58 minE 310.00 miFair61°F24°F24%1012.2 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi64 minE 720.00 miClear61°F26°F27%1014.6 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi1.9 hrsW 310.00 miFair64°F30°F28%1012 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE5SW6NW10SW6W15W12W8W14NW9NW11N9SW10
1 day agoE6S3SE4SE4CalmE5SE5E5E10E8SE4S5CalmCalmW7W17W12NW12W115W7SW7SW3W4
2 days agoE4E3E4E9E6E8E7E8--E6SE3SE5CalmSW8SW55W65NW5N4CalmSE4E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.