Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Guadalupe, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 5:24PM Sunday November 19, 2017 1:52 AM MST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 6:39PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Guadalupe, AZ
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location: 33.41, -112.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 190400
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
900 pm mst Sat nov 18 2017

Update Updated aviation discussion

Synopsis
The streak of drier weather and above normal temperatures will
persist through next week. A weak front has brought somewhat cooler
conditions to the area this weekend, though unseasonable warmth
will quickly return next week. In fact, record warmth will be likely
by the middle of next week and into the long holiday weekend.

Discussion
A positively tilted trough has exited into the cntrl SRN plains this
afternoon dragging a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area,
albeit largely decayed with little reflection in observations or
objective analysis. The most pronounced influence of this front has
been a surge of very drier air southward where dewpoints in the
teens were filtering into lower elevations under an overall
subsident regime. Given this dry airmass and clear skies tonight,
overnight temperatures should tank fairly quickly resulting in lows
some 5f-10f colder than this morning (and likely the coldest night
for the region since sometime this past march).

Through Monday, general NW flow aloft will persist as h5 heights
moderate from around a 580dm range up closer towards 584dm as
ridging begins to amplify. The attendant warm, dry airmass will
result in overall temperatures hovering in a slightly above normal
range, though incorporating a larger than typical diurnal spread
(upwards of 30f). With clouds only beginning to increase on Monday,
it looks like another couple "chamber of commerce" days for the area.

Models remain in excellent agreement for the remainder of next
week depicting gradual height thickness rises associated with a
building ridge across the intermountain west. This will translate
into a steeper warming trend through late in the week with naefs
500mb heights (in excess of 590dm) approaching records Tuesday-
Thursday, particularly in the yuma vicinity. Latest blended guidance
continues to suggest that temperatures will exceed daily records by
thanksgiving (phoenix record for nov 23rd is 87 in 1950; and for any
thanksgiving day is 87 on nov 23 1950 and nov 27 2014) and the
official forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although a more
unlikely outcome, it's not totally out of the question that phoenix
could touch 90f Wed or thurs setting a record for latest 90f
temperature in the city (record is 90f on nov 15 1999). Pops
remain near 0 percent and it is very likely the long dry stretch
will continue into at least the end of november, which would result
in a meteorological fall (sept-oct-nov) without any measurable
rainfall at sky harbor airport (last occurred in 1938).

Aviation
South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, and ksdl:
typical easterly drainage winds will return later tonight and will
persist well into Sunday afternoon. Models indicate a period of
stronger easterly winds for a few hours late Sunday morning
(17-20z) as higher momentum air mixes down but gusts should stay
at or below 15 kts. Winds will struggle to go westerly late Sunday
afternoon and may only go variable for kphx before switching
easterly late Sunday evening.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
no aviation concerns through the TAF period as terminals remain
under mostly clear skies. Northerly winds at kblh will continue
into Sunday while light westerly winds at kipl will become
northerly late Sunday morning.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Monday through Friday:
increasing high pressure aloft will bring warming conditions
through the middle of the week with temperatures reaching into the
middle to upper 80s across the deserts starting Wednesday.

Unusually dry air will also settle into the area through the
middle of the week with a slight boost to moisture by late in the
period. Minimum rh values will fall between 10-15% through
Wednesday and 15-20% for late in the week. Light winds will
dominate for the duration of the forecast.

Climate
Record highs for selected dates next week:
date phoenix yuma
---- ------- ----
nov 22 89 in 1950 91 in 1950
nov 23 87 in 1950 87 in 1950
nov 24 88 in 1950 89 in 1950
the phoenix record high for any thanksgiving is 87 on nov 23 1950
and nov 27 2014.

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... None.

Ca... None.

Visit us on facebook, twitter, and at weather.Gov phoenix
discussion... Mo hirsch
aviation... Wilson
fire weather... Kuhlman
climate... Mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ2 mi61 minSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F27°F32%1016.9 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ15 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair55°F19°F25%1017.2 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ19 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair57°F3°F12%1016.8 hPa
Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, AZ21 mi77 minESE 310.00 miFair52°F19°F28%1019 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ21 mi1.9 hrsN 710.00 miFair56°F23°F28%1018 hPa

Wind History from PHX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW5SW5E9N7NE3CalmCalmNW5W6NW5SW4SW5W6SW4SW4W5SW4
1 day agoE7E8E9E7E6E7SE7E7SE7N43N3S6CalmN3N6N6N6CalmE3CalmNW3SW4SW3
2 days agoSE3SE5SE5E4E7E4E5E4E7E6SE7S4CalmSW3CalmSW4SW3CalmNW3CalmE5E5E7E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.