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FXUS64 KBMX 032058 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 358 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Key Messages: - Chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon, becoming widespread late this evening through much of the overnight hours.
- Storm motions are fairly slow with rain rates in excess of an inch per hour, areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could experience ponding or water with limited potential for highly localized flooding.
- Patchy fog may develop overnight due to the widespread heavy rainfall.

This afternoon.

A shortwave trough is positioned over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Region at midday while mid-level ridging was located over much of Florida and the Bahamas. A diffuse thermal gradient was observed in surface analysis across the northern third of the area where a weak boundary remains present. Through the morning and into midday, this feature has acted as a focus for persistent and additional development of shower and some thunderstorm activity. A cold front was analyzed from Northern Michigan that extended southwest across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and further southwest into Northern Texas.

Expect rain chances through mid afternoon to continue to be maximized generally north of the Interstate 20 corridor with an additional area for increase across our western counties as activity continues to develop just head of a convective cluster of showers and thunderstorms that continues to move east across much of Mississippi.

This activity is moving about 20 mph, which is slow enough to drop heavy rainfall as rain rates are in excess of an inch per hour to our west currently. There will be limited potential for some ponding of water and perhaps localized flooding if an urban or low-lying area experiences persistent or multiple rounds of heavy rainfall over time this afternoon into tonight.

From mid afternoon through early evening, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop and move into the area from the west with the greatest coverage across the northern and western portions of the area. Winds will be from the southwest at 6-12 mph. Highs will range from around 80 far northwest to near 90 far southeast.

Tonight.

The mid-level shortwave will move over the are overnight, continuing to support showers with some thunderstorms across the northeast and central portions of the area. This activity will become more confined through the early pre-dawn hours on Saturday across our northeast and far eastern counties.

With shower activity tapering off in the pre-dawn hours, low- level moisture will be high and some patchy fog is anticipated, especially for areas that receive heavier rainfall this afternoon through late tonight. Winds will be generally from the south to southwest overnight with speeds from 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 60s areawide.

Saturday.

The mid-level shortwave will move east over Georgia by early afternoon while a weaker shortwave moves over the Mid-South Region toward mid afternoon on Saturday. A surface cold front will move east, extending from near Chicago and extending southwest across the Ozarks and into the Southern Plains by Saturday evening.

A few remnant outflow boundaries from previous convection may remain across the area during the day, providing low-level convergence forcing to permit continued chances for showers and some thunderstorms. The better chance appears to be across the northeast half of the area, but at least isolated showers and storms are expected to develop across the rest of the area through the afternoon hours as the pattern remains unsettled with sufficient heat and humidity to support shower and thunderstorm development. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 80s northeast to near 90 southwest and far southeast.

05

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Long term forecast is on track today, with no significant changes needed. There will be several opportunities for rain, especially across the north through the week. Expect warm temperatures as well, with lower 90s for at least the southern half of the area by Wednesday.

14

Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8 inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north.
The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest counties.

Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties.
Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms.

32/Davis

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Clouds will continue to increase from the west and southwest through the afternoon. Showers with some storms will continue to develop across portions of the north and west portions of the area through mid afternoon, potentially affecting our northern terminals through late afternoon. More widespread showers and storms are moving east across Mississippi and will bring widespread chances for showers and storms late this afternoon and through the late evening hours. Lingering showers with a few storms will remain most persistent across the central and eastern counties overnight through late Saturday morning with lower chances to the south and west.

05

FIRE WEATHER

Periods of showers and storms are forecast through Sunday. Given the scattered nature of the activity, rain amounts will average near one-half inch, with higher amounts where thunderstorms track.
With increasing moisture, minimum RH values will be above 40 percent each afternoon. 20-foot winds should average less than 10 mph from the south to southwest, though could gust to around 25 mph and be variable in direction in or near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 64 81 61 85 / 70 60 30 60 Anniston 63 82 63 85 / 70 60 30 60 Birmingham 65 82 65 85 / 70 50 20 60 Tuscaloosa 65 86 65 87 / 70 40 20 50 Calera 65 85 65 85 / 70 40 20 50 Auburn 65 85 65 85 / 50 40 30 50 Montgomery 66 87 65 88 / 60 40 20 40 Troy 65 88 64 88 / 40 40 20 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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