Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 7:30 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM   Moonset 2:42 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 031403 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 903 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

New SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 903 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

The short-term forecast remains on-track, just made minor adjustments to PoPs and Sky cover. The initial shortwave is now over Northeast Georgia while we have some lingering showers across parts of the northern counties with heavier activity across the far northwest where a few lightning strikes were detected from time to time. This activity is likely occurring along an outflow boundary.

A more-defined shortwave is over much of Arkansas and Northern Louisiana and will continue approaching the area through midday.
Expect increasing clouds across the west and southwest from mid to late morning with chances for showers and storms developing and arriving from the west through the afternoon, expanding further eastward with time through the rest of the afternoon and into tonight.

05

Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A rather messy upper flow pattern the next few days with several waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms to track eastward across the northern portions of Central Alabama. Despite decent coverage of rain each day across the north, rainfall amounts will be rather modest with most areas receiving less than one-half inch of total rainfall. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across areas south of I-20, while cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures slightly cooler north of I-20, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

58/rose

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

Weak quasi-zonal flow aloft continues Sunday, with yet another convectively enhanced shortwave/MCV moving in from the Plains during the late afternoon and evening hours. PWATs around 1.8 inches will be favorable for scattered to numerous showers and storms developing with daytime heating, highest chances north.
The shortwave appears a touch slower than previously forecast and have raised PoPs Sunday evening. Shortwave ridging in advance of the shortwave trough should allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s ahead of convection. A deep trough will eject across the Central and Northern Plains Monday with ridging building ahead of it. The prior weak shortwave may still be close enough to some of the northeastern counties to enhance diurnal convection there. The deep trough remains across the north-central CONUS on Tuesday as ridging builds over the Southeast CONUS.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will cause efficient mixing and warming temperatures/lowering dew points especially across the southeast half of the area, suppressing convection. But moisture pooling ahead of a stalled frontal boundary may remain sufficient for isolated to scattered convection in the northwest counties.

Wednesday and Thursday a trough with a strong positive tilt will extend from the Great Lakes to the Four Corners while subtropical ridging strengthens over the Gulf. The tightening mid-level height gradient between these two features will result in strengthening WSW flow aloft. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary will reside across the Mid-South with several waves of low pressure riding along it. A strong EML will result in a very unstable air mass south of the front with strong deep layer shear as well. An early spring heatwave with near record highs looks likely across the southern counties.
Will have to watch any convective disturbances skirting near the northern counties along the northern fringes of the warmer 700mb temperatures given a conditionally favorable environment for severe storms.

32/Davis

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI MAY 3 2024

A zonal upper flow pattern across the southern United States with weak ridging along the Gulf Coast will result in scattered to numerous showers with embedded tstms impacting mainly north Alabama thru the period. Cigs will stay mostly aoa 5000 ft agl with lcl vsbys blo 3 miles in heavy showers. MVFR/IFR cigs will development after 09Z.

58/rose

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture increases today. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with higher values elsewhere.
Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the north and west and spread east through Saturday. RH values range from 40 to 60 percent Saturday afternoon, lowest values south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 82 63 82 61 / 60 60 60 30 Anniston 83 65 83 63 / 40 40 60 30 Birmingham 82 66 84 65 / 50 50 40 30 Tuscaloosa 83 67 85 65 / 50 60 40 20 Calera 82 66 84 65 / 40 50 40 20 Auburn 84 67 84 66 / 20 30 40 30 Montgomery 86 67 88 66 / 20 20 30 20 Troy 86 66 88 64 / 20 20 30 30

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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