Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Vincent, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:10PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 7:30 PM CDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:45PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vincent, AL
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location: 33.41, -86.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 170001
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
701 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018

Update
For 00z aviation.

Short term
A decelerating cold front was stretched from near selma northeast
to near clanton and extended further northeast to near wedowee in
randolph county. Our far northwest counties are experiencing
temperatures in the upper 50's early this afternoon while the
mercury has reached into the lower 90's in eufaula and across our
far southeast counties. A southwest flow prevails aloft with
abundant cloud cover from east texas east across much of arkansas,
louisiana, tennessee and over all but our far southeast counties.

With upper level winds becoming roughly parallel to the surface
front, its forward progress southeastward is expected to diminish
and will result in a notable thermal gradient across our forecast
area through tonight and into Wednesday. The surface boundary will
gradually become less defined with a loosening thermal gradient
overnight and into Wednesday.

Expect temperatures to fall to around 50 overnight northwest with
a few upper 40 degree readings possible in the more typical
cooler locations while temperatures will only fall into the upper
60's over our southeast counties, roughly along and south of i-85
and areas along and east of i-65 south of montgomery. Temperatures
will reach into the mid 60's on Wednesday north-central and
northwest while the mercury will climb into the lower 80's over
our southeast counties.

The chance for rain showers will be greatest for the remainder of
this afternoon and evening over our northwest and north-central
counties with decreasing chances further south. Rain chances will
remain best over our far northern counties overnight followed by a
decreased chance on Wednesday with best chances remaining across
much of our northwest counties and extending northeast through our
north-central and northeast counties.

05

Long term
Wednesday and Thursday.

Lingering effects from frontal passage (fropa) will be felt on
Wednesday in the form of light rainfall scattered across the
forecast area through the evening. Northerly winds will continue to
provide cold air advection and decreasing tropospheric moisture
through Thursday as the center of high pressure in the plains moves
eastward to our north near the ohio valley. For now have placed 20-
30% pops in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon with decreasing
coverage & southward progression through the evening as low-level
confluent flow & isentropic ascent weakens. Temperature wise, 60s
and 70s are expected for daytime highs with a few counties in the
far southeast reaching the low 80s. Cool low temperatures wed
night Thu morning where mid to upper 40s are likely across the
north, increasing to upper 50s in the south under partly cloudy
skies. Dry on Thursday with pleasant conditions & temperatures,
highs in the mid 60s upper 70s overall with a shift to easterly
winds as high pressure to our north slides towards the east coast.

Friday through Sunday.

After a brief break in the weather, another approaching trough &
frontal boundary will enter the picture by Friday evening. A digging
trough and cold air mass will move from south-central canada and
spill into the northern plains midwest before eventually moving
southward into our region Saturday. With easterly flow in place,
surface low-level pre-frontal winds will veer with time giving a
small window of warm air advection and increasing moisture.

Frontogenetic forcing up through ~700mb will be in place across
field of higher moisture availability (pws ~1.6") and will likely
develop areas of light to moderate rain Saturday afternoon.

Instability looks to remain low, so have left thunder out of grids
at this time though wouldn't be surprised to see areas in the
southeast hear a few rumbles in heavier showers. Though isentropic
ascent keeps a slight chance of light rain across the south, this
system should move along fairly quickly with FROPA expected by
Saturday evening. Subsidence will improve conditions thereafter with
drier air and sunny skies on Sunday. Highs in the low 60s low 70s
expected by then.

Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure dominates weather conditions through the end of the
forecast period. After drying out on Sunday, the beginning of the
next work week appears to remain calm and pleasant as the jet stream
pattern remains under a period of transition. Split flow is
suggested in the extended with the polar jet amplifying back up into
canada by Tuesday. A persistent upper-level low near the desert
southwest has been aiding in this configuration for the past several
days. Marginal flow aloft will remain in place here with westerly h3
sub-tropical jet stream winds ~50 kts. Pre-dominant easterly winds
at the surface should keep daily our weather pleasant and dry
overall with temperatures in the upper 60s lower 70s under mostly
sunny skies.

40 sizemore

Aviation
00z TAF discussion.

Really took it on the chin last night as ifr conditions developed
quickly after 06z. The surface map this evening looks pretty
close to last night. A strong cold front was meandering over
central alabama was between eet mgm. Some convective showers and a
little thunder south of the front. Mostly stratiform light rain
with a few embedded showers. Held restrictions in all locations
much of the overnight hours, mainly ceilings. But there will also
be some fog in areas south of front and where it rains. Surface
based drier air builds into the area on Wednesday and deepens.

There will be ceilings, but they should rise toVFR by afternoon.

The only concern will be mgm toi if the clouds can hold into the
afternoon and beyond. Winds eventually become north at 5-10kts at
all locations.

75

Fire weather
Rain chances will increase today as a front slowly moves through
the region. Cooler readings return by mid week with a rain break
for late Wednesday into Thursday. However, rain chances return
again for late Friday into the weekend as another frontal system
moves into the area. No fire weather concerns are expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 58 68 48 71 51 50 30 10 0 0
anniston 60 71 50 73 52 40 30 10 0 0
birmingham 58 68 51 71 55 40 30 10 0 10
tuscaloosa 58 69 51 72 55 40 30 10 10 10
calera 59 70 51 72 54 40 20 10 10 0
auburn 65 76 55 73 55 40 20 10 10 10
montgomery 66 78 56 77 58 40 20 10 10 0
troy 68 80 56 77 58 20 20 0 10 0

Bmx watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL22 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F60°F93%1022.1 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW5N3N5N8N7N8N9N9NE7NE3NE44N3N5NE4E43N10N7NW9NW8Calm
1 day agoSE54SE554SE6SE6S5S4CalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6Calm3SW6SW8
G14
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2 days agoE3E4CalmE3CalmE7E43E4E5CalmE4CalmS5SE3S5S8S11S8S10S10
G17
S7S6S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.