Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 7:31 PM Moonrise 2:03 AM   Moonset 12:22 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 011100 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 600 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

A lingering shower is out there this morning. It is finally showing signs of falling apart and should do so before sunrise. We will also see fog develop across the area. Right now the worst vis appears to be in the south. Will be monitoring for any advisories as we see more development. As we move through the daytime hours, we are going to get a late Spring preview with plenty of sun, scattered cumulus clouds and highs in the mid to upper 80s. The rainfall chances are below 10 percent, but a stray shower can not be ruled out in the far south, just loo low to mention in the forecast. Another mild night on tap tonight. Right now it appears that the main fog development will be south of the area so will not mention at this time. On Thursday, we will warm up even more, with mid to upper 80s. There may even be a few local areas that reach 90. At the same time there appears to be a boundary that will be sliding north during the peak heating of the day. That boundary may be enough to trigger a few showers/storms in the warm environment. So with that in mind will include a low chance of rain. More or less the typical summertime "hit-and-miss" variety.

Welcome to May!

16

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

West-southwest flow aloft will be in place Thursday night through Friday night between ridging over the Gulf and East Coast and troughing over the Plains and Western CONUS. Several shortwaves will be embedded in this flow emanating from Plains convection. A subtropical impulse will help initiate an MCS over Texas later today. While the MCS is expected to dissipate on Thursday before reaching Alabama due to a dry/stable air mass, its MCV and increased mid-level moisture along with a weak LLJ should result in some patches of light rain and showers for at least the northwest counties Thursday night. Moisture continues to increase Friday and Friday night with continued weak shortwaves and the left exit region of a subtropical jet streak nosing in. This should support scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms during this period into Saturday morning, highest chances north where heights will be lower. Bulk shear will be weak so not expecting anything severe with this activity.

Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen across the Central CONUS ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated warm air aloft/capping increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens.

32/Davis

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2024

With plenty of moisture at the surface, and light winds we have two areas of fog. The first is the advection fog across the south.
Vis here will remain at IFR at TOI and MGM for a few more hours.
North there is river fog. Most sites remain okay with a cross between VFR and MVFR. TCL remains the one location that remains the lowest. After the fog burns off by 14/15z, light winds and mostly sunny skies will prevail.

16

FIRE WEATHER

Rain free conditions today with RH values dropping into the 30s.
20 foot winds will be from north around 3-6 mph. Most of the area will remain dry on Thursday as well, but there is a small chance of seeing a shower or storm during the peak heating of the afternoon. Despite the low chances of rain, minimum RH values on Thursday will be in the 30s. 20 foot winds will be from south around 5-7 mph. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 85 55 87 62 / 0 0 10 20 Anniston 85 58 87 65 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 86 61 87 67 / 0 0 20 20 Tuscaloosa 87 61 87 65 / 0 0 20 30 Calera 85 60 86 65 / 0 0 20 20 Auburn 85 63 86 66 / 0 0 20 10 Montgomery 87 61 88 65 / 10 0 20 10 Troy 87 61 88 64 / 10 0 20 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Lowndes-Macon- Montgomery-Pike-Russell.

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