Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:15PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:12 AM EST (07:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:53AMMoonset 10:22PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 207 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms this morning, then showers likely this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this morning.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
Wed night..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Showers.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 207 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An area of low pressure will lift northeast along the coast overnight with a cold front expected to push off the coast during today. High pressure will return Wednesday. A coastal trough will develop Thursday ahead of another cold front that will move across the waters Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 130016
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
716 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A warm front has pushed onshore this evening, but will shift back
off the coast as a cold front in the wake of an area of developing
low pressure. The area of low pressure will lift northeast toward
the DELMARVA coast Tuesday morning. As a result, some heavy rain and
a few strong thunderstorms are possible tonight. Unsettled
conditions will generally persist through early Friday. Cooler and
drier conditions are expected during the weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 715 pm Monday... H5 trough in place from the great lakes lags
southwestward into the central plains and nm. The orientation of the
trough will direct deep moisture across the southeast united states.

Meanwhile, closer to home, a warm front has moved inland, generally
from near murrells inlet to cre myr and across southeast brunswick
county to near surf city, this evening. This boundary will move a
little farther inland allowing temperatures to increase to its east
ahead of the wave expected to pass by later tonight. The developing
area of low pressure will move quickly northeast and bring a period
of moderate to heavy rainfall, as well as a risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms. The low-level shear and instability could
increase enough overnight for a few storms to produce locally
damaging winds or possibly a tornado. SPC continues to highlight a
marginal risk generally east of i-95 with a slight risk for coastal
portions of southeast nc.

The aforementioned boundary will finally shift back of the coast
during Tuesday as a cold front with a surface ridge attempting to re-
assert itself across the carolinas. A roller coast with low
temperatures across the area tonight. Since cold air advection will
be lacking initially in the wake of the front Tuesday temperatures
will likely be at or above normal along the coast and at or below
normal farther inland.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 315 pm Monday... In the mid-levels the area will continue in
the southwesterly flow as a cut-off low breaks off the main tough
axis centered over hudson bay and the cut-off low moves to the great
state of arkansas by Wednesday night. With this pattern, the deep
moisture will be available throughout. In this period the main front
will be off the coast and cold air damming we reestablish itself so
the period will continue to have chance of precipitation with the
best chance Wednesday night as isentropic lift increase again over
the high pressure damming up against the mountains. High
temperatures will remain below normal with cloud cover, & cooler
air. Lows will be from around to the upper 40s with a 50 degree
temperatures on the beaches.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 315 pm Monday... Extended guidance is stable with regards to
the storm system Thursday, which is really the only system of
note for our area during the period. Mid level low pressure will
be ejecting out of the tennessee valley with good diffluence
aloft with lower level isentropic lift teaming up to bring
another decent rainfall event to the area. The GFS hints at some
dry air intrusion wrapping around the system while the ecmwf
keeps conditions a bit more saturated. By Friday the system is
long gone with a west to occasionally northwest mid level flow
ensuing. Surface high pressure will move across the area through
Saturday with a reinforcing dry cold front later in the
weekend. Overall temperatures are not too far from climatology,
a little on the cool side early Saturday however.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 00z... Front has moved onshore at the coastal terminals with
southeast flow. Wedge will hold inland through the overnight hours.

By 06z, a deepening low and vort MAX will move through the region.

Convection will be on the increase, especially along the coast with
gusty winds possible and thunder. Tuesday, winds will shift to the
west, however ceilings and visibilities will remain ifr due to a
warm frontal regime. Ifr conditions may break around the end of the
forecast period.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr continuing through Tuesday evening as a
train of low pressure systems bring unsettled weather through
Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 715 pm Monday... Strong southeast winds prevail across the coastal
waters in the regime east of the warm front that has recently pushed
inland. The strong onshore fetch has allowed seas to increase to 6
to 8 ft. Additional veering of the wind is expected overnight as an
area of low pressure rides by to the northeast. By Tuesday morning
southwest flow will prevail and lesser speeds given a weaker
pressure gradient. During late Tuesday afternoon the old front will
shift offshore as a cold front allowing for northwesterly winds.

Seas will subside some during Tuesday, but that trend will be short-
lived.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 315 pm Monday... At 12 utc Tuesday and low along front will
have shifted north and the northwest to northerly flow will slowly
shift the front off the coast and it will move well offshore on
Wednesday. As the low shifts north it will deepen which will bring
in cold high pressure and a strong northeast winds of 25 knots will
increase on Wednesday. There is a small window where the winds and
seas will be below small craft values on Tuesday but will return on
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Seas will build back to 6 to 8 feet
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 315 pm Sunday... Northeast winds will be in place much of the day
Thursday as a storm system moves across well inland. The front
associated with the system will turn winds to the northwest late in
the day and this direction will persist basically through the
remainder of the period. Winds speeds will be somewhat elevated via
the strength of the storm system gradient initially and decent cold
air advection over warmer waters later. Expect 15-20 knots Thursday
and Friday with 10-15 knots Saturday. Some higher seas will be
around Thursday likely eclipsing small craft criteria dropping back
slowly with the fetch change and decrease in wind speeds Friday and
Saturday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Tuesday for
amz250-252-254- 256.

Near term... Srp
short term... Rh
long term... Shk
aviation... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi88 min SSW 5.1 70°F 1016 hPa69°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi65 min SSW 9.7 G 14 70°F 66°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi18 minN 010.00 miOvercast68°F68°F100%1015.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi17 minS 810.00 miLight Rain70°F68°F93%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3NE5NE6N6N4NE7NE7NE6N4N5N4N6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S4S7S4
1 day agoN5N5N7N7N5N7N7N6N8N9N6NE6N3N5N6CalmN5N5N4NE4N4N6N7N4
2 days agoW3NW8NW7NW7
G15
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G18
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N9NW8N6N8N5N3N4N7N5N4N5N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Tue -- 05:35 AM EST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:22 PM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:51 PM EST     3.91 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.42.82.11.51.11.11.62.53.44.14.54.64.33.732.21.61.21.31.92.73.43.8

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:25 AM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:52 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:14 PM EST     4.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:12 PM EST     1.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.63.12.51.81.311.11.72.73.54.24.54.443.42.621.41.21.322.83.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.