Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:29PM Thursday March 21, 2019 11:58 AM EDT (15:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 1135 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Rest of today..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 1135 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move farther away from the area while a cold front moves across the waters tonight. Another weak front will move across the waters Friday night. High pressure will ridge in from the northwest Saturday and move overhead during Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211345
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
945 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move away from the area today with clouds
decreasing. After a few showers tonight with the passage of a
cold front, dry weather will prevail Friday through the weekend
as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Low pressure and
a cold front will spread clouds and rain into the carolinas
late Monday into Tuesday, followed by high pressure for
Wednesday.

Near term through Friday
As of 945 am Thursday... Low pressure is centered near rocky
mount, nc this morning and will continue to lift north and away
from our area today. The back edge of the low clouds should
reach the pee dee region shortly, although it will take most of
the morning for Sun break out in the grand strand, and perhaps
until early afternoon for Sun to break out in the CAPE fear
region. A few light showers creeping toward bennettsville should
largely dissipate as they move east toward dillon and lumberton
over the next hour.

No significant changes have been made to high temperature
forecasts today, still expected to reach the lower to mid 60s
for most areas. The warmest portion of our forecast area should
be south of florence where the least amount of cloud cover
should exist this afternoon, and highs here could make it into
the upper 60s.

We're also still watching an impressive upper disturbance that
will move across the area this evening in tandem with a cold
front. Models paint a little better chance of showers with this
feature than they did 24 hours ago, and i'll further investigate
the potential that gusty winds and or could accompany these
showers with very cold air aloft and small low-and-mid level
instability present. Discussion from 130 am follows...

low pressure is nearing the CAPE fear coast and will continue
to lift northward during the day. The bulk of the light to
moderate rain will lift northward as well, with the highest pops
early this morning mainly across portions of southeast nc.

Otherwise a few areas of -dz are expected until some drying
occurs later this morning. An energetic shortwave across western
tn and northeast ms will lift north of the area by early this
afternoon while another shortwave across the midwest results in
additional PVA later today and this evening. The secondary
feature will also push a cold front through with a shot of uvvs
prior to shifting off the coast. Thus after lowering pops later
this morning will increase them again to chance levels by later
today and this evening. The h5 trough axis will shift off the
coast late tonight finally allowing for a drier column. Favor
leaning toward the cooler guidance with highs today as a result
of cloud cover, and the warmer temperatures tonight with winds
expected to remain up with additional clouds. Expect breezy
conditions Friday with a blend of high temperatures toward the
warmer guidance with cold air advection lagging behind for
another period.

Otherwise, each high tide could be problematic, especially at
the downtown ilm gauge prior to noon today and midnight tonight.

Plan on issuing another coastal flood advisory for downtown ilm
as a result.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... Period will be dominated by surface
high pressure building in from the northwest as 5h trough moves
away from the area. Dry cold front crosses the area Fri night
into Sat with cold advection dropping temperatures below climo
for sat. Precipitable water drops below 0.20 inch early in the
period and remains at or below 0.20 inch into Sun morning.

Center of the high moves overhead Sat night with light and
variable winds and deep dry air allowing for strong radiational
cooling. Low temperatures Sat night will drop into the mid 30s
and typical cold spots strong radiational cooling areas have a
good shot at dropping to or below freezing.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 am Thursday... Broad 5h trough sets up early next week
as surface high shifts off the coast. Southern stream shortwave
emerges from the near the four corners region Sun into sun
night, then races east mon. This wave helps develop low
pressure, in the southeast, along a cold front trailing a low in
the canadian maritimes. This complex system will likely bring
showers to the southeast Mon night which could linger into tue
(with potential for isolated thunderstorms - although they will
not be included just yet given low confidence). High pressure
will build in for the end of the period as the mid-level trough
axis moves overhead.

-high pressure will keep the region dry Sun and mon, with
increasing clouds on mon. Temperatures near climo Sun and above
climo on mon.

-best rainfall chances will be Mon night and Tue with
temperatures above climo Mon night and near climo tue.

-drier and cooler air arrives late Tue night and Wed with
rainfall ending by daybreak Wed and temperatures dropping below
climo.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... .Current lifr ifr ceilings across the area will
slowly dissipate as low pressure system that moved inland in
our area overnight moves off to the north. Ceilings will improve
at flo next couple of hours, with myr cre soon after, then lbt
around 16z, and ilm by 18z. Current ifr MVFR vsbys in our area
will slowly improve next couple of hours.VFR conditions to
prevail after low cloud deck dissipates. Sct bkn clouds around
5-10 kft this evening with passage of a cold front that might
eek out some rain, though with only slight chance forecasted
have kept vcsh out of tafs for now. Winds to remain elevated
out of the west today around 10 kts with gusts in the teens,
mostly at coastal sites.

Extended outlook...VFR Friday through early next week.

Marine
As of 945 am Thursday... Winds and seas are very slowly
decreasing across the coastal waters after the storminess of the
past 24 hours. Low pressure centered near rocky mount, nc will
move north and farther away from the area today. Breezy winds
will redevelop tonight as a cold front moves off the coast. The
small craft advisory has been allowed to expire for the south
carolina coastal waters although conditions remains less than
ideal with 4-5 foot seas and west winds up to 15 kt today.

Larger seas remain near CAPE fear where the advisory will remain
in effect. Discussion from 130 am follows...

low pressure is approaching the coast near CAPE fear early this
morning. A southeast fetch east of the low has generated seas
around 10 ft at the frying pan shoals buoy and even 8 ft at the
waverider 5 miles off wrightsville beach. The sc waters have
primarily experienced offshore flow on the west side of the low.

As the low moves farther inland this morning a westerly flow
will prevail. As a result, conditions will drop below small
craft thresholds across the sc waters by around daybreak, but
seas will remain up for the CAPE fear waters through much of the
day. NW to W flow will prevail Friday with speeds 15-20 knots,
highest for the offshore waters southeast of CAPE fear. Seas
could once again flirt with small craft thresholds for that
portion of the coastal waters during Friday.

Dry cold front will move across the waters Fri night into Sat with a
bump in offshore flow likely. Gradient briefly tightens up and
speeds around 20 kt will be possible during the pre-dawn hours. Seas
will quickly subside in the offshore flow regime, dropping from 3 to
5 ft Fri night to 2 to 4 ft Sat morning. Surface high spreads over
the waters Sat into Sun with northwest winds around 10 kt sat
afternoon becoming light and variable Sat night and sun. Seas
continue falling Sat dropping under 3 ft around midday and 2 ft or
less Sat night and sun. Center of the highs shifts east of the
waters Sun night into Mon with light southerly flow gradually
increasing to 10 to 15 kt by the end of the period. Seas will slowly
build mon, reaching 2 to 3 ft by the end of the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for
ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Srp tra
near term... Tra srp
short term... Iii
long term... Iii
aviation... Vao


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi74 min WNW 11 52°F 1013 hPa48°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi51 min WNW 18 G 21 51°F 58°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi64 minW 7 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F46°F77%1013.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi63 minW 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast52°F48°F86%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N7N8NW8N9N11NW8NW7
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1 day agoNE12
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NE5CalmCalmN3N4N5N4N4N5N5N4N6N5N3N5N6N5N5
2 days agoE3SE9SE11
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E10E8SE8S5CalmCalmCalmN7N7N6NE7NE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Thu -- 03:13 AM EDT     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:59 AM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:37 PM EDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:28 PM EDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.10.7-0.5-1.1-0.80.52.23.84.95.354.12.81.30-0.8-0.901.63.24.55.35.34.6

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
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Thu -- 04:03 AM EDT     -1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     5.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EDT     -0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:04 PM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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31.70.4-0.7-1.1-0.60.92.6455.14.53.52.30.9-0.2-0.8-0.70.423.54.75.24.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.