Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 28, 2017 8:14 PM EDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:23PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 724 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
.severe Thunderstorm watch 295 in effect until 1 am edt Monday...
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft...subsiding to 2 to 3 ft. A chance of strong to severe tstms...mainly this evening.
Mon..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 kt...becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt...becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Scattered showers and tstms through the night.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 724 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. An upper level disturbance accompanied with strong to severe Thunderstorms will move across the area waters this evening. Otherwise...high pressure centered offshore will extend across the area through Monday. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday and then stall through much of next week...maintaining the threat for showers and Thunderstorms each day. SW winds will prevail through much of the week as high pressure off the se u.s. Coast continues its foothold across the area waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus62 kilm 281909
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
309 pm edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will enter the area and stall through early next
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be around
during the latter part of the week as weak upper level
disturbances continue to pass overhead.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 300 pm Sunday... A west to subtle southwest flow will continue
at the mid levels through the period. A very broad front extends
across the mississippi valley well to the west. For our area
there appears to be two decent chances of convection, the first
coming this afternoon and evening with similar timing Monday.

Currently convective debris from last night's convection is exiting
off the coast and a decent cumulus field is developing in its wake
matching up well with convective inhibition has finally eroded from
a 100mb mixed layer perspective. This trend should continue and
showers and thunderstorms should begin in the next few hours. The
gfs shows a smattering of convection this afternoon with a little
more enhancement organization around 00 utc. The high resolution cam
guidance is showing a similar scenario albeit with more of a delay
in timing. I have increased the pops slightly for the next six hours
or so due to these trends. If and moreso when things get going,
severe potential is fair game with strong winds and hail the primary
threats. For the overnight hours beyond 03 utc, things should be
quiet persisting well into Monday morning.

For Monday afternoon, residual piedmont troughing and very similar
thermal parameters will offer up more chances of convection.

Guidance pops from the mav aren't as high as this afternoon and
evening but may trend up in time which can be the nature in the warm
season regarding convection. SPC has most of the area in a slight
risk for Monday.

Thermal profiles show temperatures should be a little warmer Monday
afternoon as does the official forecast. Overnight lows tonight will
remain mostly in the 70s with maybe an upper 60 or two well
inland.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday... With a boundary stalled over the area and some
mid level energy still present Monday night may see a continuation
of the afternoons' convective activity. This is especially
suggesting by the 12z WRF which shows a very agressive, possibly
feedback-contaminated convective signal over mainly sc zones.

Tuesday morning should offer a bit of a break in radar activity
though not necessarily a rain-free period. With a little heating and
the front still in the area Tuesday afternoon should once again see
at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Coverage will wane to
isolated or perhaps none at all later Tuesday night.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday... Gfs ECMWF in agreement on the evolving h5
pattern in slowly migrating a broad but low amplitude trough
eastward across the great lakes and ohio valley then into
new england and SE canada this period, while holding an upper
ridge of varying amplitude over florida and the bahamas. This
will allow a series of weak fronts and upper disturbances to
move to our coasts, offering daily chances of thunderstorms.

Late may early june heating coupled with pwats values between
1.50-1.80", and numerous surface boundaries, will support
convection much of the extended forecast period. Next weekend
potentially could turn wet, as enhancement of column moisture is
drawn from the gulf of mexico by low pressure over texas on
Saturday, tracking to the ohio valley during Sunday. With the
abundance of clouds, daytime temperatures will run near normal
for the season, middle to upper 80s, but above average minimum
temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
As of 18z... Expect mostlyVFR conditions through the period.

There will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening but the confidence level does not warrant
any prevailing flight restrictions. There should be enough
debris cloudiness and wind to prevent any significant fog
outbreak after Monday morning.

Extended outlook... MVFR ifr conditions are possible in showers
and thunderstorms Monday night through Tuesday. More typical
summertime scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
Near term until 6 am Monday morning ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Bermuda high pressure will keep a
southwest flow in place over the waters through the period.

Speeds will be mostly in a range of 10-15 knots with the
exception of a few hours this afternoon when stronger low level
jetting warrants a few hours of 15- 20. Speeds will relax a
little Monday. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the four
footers mostly confined to the next few hours coinciding with
the slightly stronger winds.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Cold front should be stalled over land,
keeping marine flow out of the sw. Solutions that push the front
farther and lead to veered flow currently not favored though
impossible to rule out. This boundary will tend to remain quite
stationary through the period keeping a fairly light southwesterly
flow across the waters. The proximity of the boundary paired with
the poorly defined nature of the atlantic high will keep wind waves
minimal and preclude any swell energy for an overall wave forecast
of just 2 ft.

Long term Wednesday through Friday ...

as of 300 pm Sunday... Near typical summer-like marine
conditions this period as SW winds prevail with 2-3 foot seas.

High pressure will remain centered just to the SE and E of
bermuda, and weak troughing inland should maintain SW wind flow
wed to fri. The sea spectrum will be comprised of s-ssw waves
1-2 feet every 5 seconds and ese waves 1-2 feet every 8 seconds.

Tstms will be active this period, moving generally from land to
the coastal waters, and some may be strong from afternoon
heating. Getting a radar update before heading out may be in the
best interest of safely this period as we transition into a
more active lightning and TSTM wind gust season.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Shk
short term... mbb
long term... Mjc
aviation... Shk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi90 min WSW 12 86°F 1010 hPa70°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi45 min 1009.8 hPa
SSBN7 43 mi135 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi67 min SW 14 G 18 78°F 76°F1010 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Last
24hr
1 day
ago
2 days
ago

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi20 minS 710.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1011.2 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi30 minSSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
Last 24hrS5S5SW5SW5SW6SW4SW3SW4SW5SW4SW3SW6W7W8W8
G18
W5
G16
W9
G15
SW5SW10
G15
W8W10W11
G15
SW10
G19
SW8
G15
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3W3CalmSW4SW4SW4SW4W6W6W6SW8SW7W10
G16
W9
G14
W8W10
G16
SW8S9S7
2 days agoSW9SW6SW6SW7SW6SW6SW5SW5W4SW6W5SW4W6W6W6NW8W10
G16
SW10W12
G18
SW10
G15
W10
G14
W10
G17
W9
G16
W7

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Midway Inlet North
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:54 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:19 PM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:17 PM EDT     5.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
53.82.41-0-0.5-0.20.92.23.44.34.64.23.42.21-0-0.6-0.40.72.33.855.5

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Allston Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:30 AM EDT     4.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:09 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:53 PM EDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.34.43.31.90.7-0.2-0.5-01.12.53.64.34.33.82.91.80.7-0.2-0.6-0.21.12.74.15.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.