Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:31PM Sunday June 24, 2018 1:12 AM EDT (05:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 2:45AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 921 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Overnight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 10 kt, becoming se. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 921 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Bermuda high pressure will maintain moderate winds through the weekend. A cold front will drop down into the waters from the north Monday into Tuesday, followed by high pressure for the mid and later portions of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 240131
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
931 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
Hot and humid weather with isolated thunderstorms will continue
through Monday. Heat advisories are in effect Sunday, and are
possible Monday. A cold front will cross the area late Monday
and Tuesday bringing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
and a relief from the heat through Thursday. Temperatures will
rebound to above normal again by next Friday but with good
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through Sunday
As of 930 pm Saturday... Bumped coastal winds up in the CAPE fear
area for the next few hours as piers and beaches are still
showing gusts over 20 mph. No other significant changes.

Discussion from 700 pm follows...

a 300 mb jet streak probably helped support a modest line of
convection across the CAPE fear region earlier this afternoon.

This feature is now off the coast, and a capped marine airmass
wasn't able to support the storms anyway.

A cluster of showers and storms across eastern sc is also drying
up as it approaches the santee river. I've maintained a 20 pop
in the georgetown, sc area for the next couple of hours,
otherwise i'm forecasting dry weather overnight. A southwesterly
low level jet should again keep the hot boundary layer mixed,
and similarly to last night lows should range from 75 degrees
west of i-95 to around 80 on the beaches. Minor edits have also
been made to pops for Sunday, dropping them into the 20-30
percent range given the magnitude of dry air aloft anticipated
to move across the area.

-tra
discussion from 300 pm follows...

an MCV should drive convection across eastern georgia and
southern south carolina through mid eve. Ongoing convection has
been fairly shallow owing largely to the amount of dry air in
the mid levels, but a few strong thunderstorms are still
possible late this afternoon across our fa. Will follow the
guidance offered by the high resolution models in keeping the
convection mainly isolated with an emphasis across the CAPE fear
area as a mid- level shortwave skirts the area as it moves off
the mid-atlantic late this eve. Will also keep the previous
trend with the risk for convection dwindling with loss of
heating as a mid-level shortwave pivots offshore of the mid-
atlantic states. Lows tonight will be in the muggy mid and upper
70s and a few spots will struggle to get as low as 80 degrees.

A heat advisory is in effect for Sun with heat index values mainly
in the range of 105 to 109 degrees. A few spotty 110 values are
possible. Highs will be in the mid and upper 90s and 100 degrees is
possible, especially across inland areas. A flat 500 mb ridge will
promote subsidence and downslope flow which will keep the seabreeze
pinned, allowing even the beaches to reach into the lower and mid
90s. Given the abundance of heat and humidity, expect isolated to
perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop with an
emphasis for later afternoon Sun and Sun night as the thunderstorms
struggle to overcome the drier air in the mid levels. The piedmont
trough and seabreeze should be areas where convection initiates.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
As of 300 pm Saturday... Bermuda high and flattening mid-level ridge
will hold on into mon. A mid-level shortwave is expected to move
across the area Sun night and this trough will help push the
piedmont trough to the coast. Stronger upper level support is
expected to arrive late Mon and Mon night. A cold front will slowly
sag S and should move into the fa Mon night and it is possible it
will be as far south as the south santee river during the early
morning hours of Tue as a 500 mb trough exits the northeast states.

Precipitable water values are forecast to be near or in excess of
2.25 inches Sun night and Mon and instability is expected to be high
with mixed layer CAPE values in excess of 3000 j kg. For this
reason, we have raised pops to the likely category Mon and Mon night
and show pops trending higher Sun night as a cluster of
thunderstorms should reach the area during the eve. Pops may need to
be boosted with later issuances as timing details are ironed out
given the ingredients for a widespread and perhaps significant
rainfall event seem to be coming together.

Clouds and convection Mon should allow temps to back off as
compared to Sun and we are currently forecasting mainly lower and
mid 90s. However, given the high dewpoints, at least some of the
area may again require a heat advisory. Lows Sun night will be in
the mid and upper 70s. Lows Mon night should be slightly lower,
mainly mid 70s with perhaps a few lower 70s in rain cooled
environment.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
As of 300 pm Saturday... Cold front will be meandering to the south
early on Tuesday before washing out closer to the gulf coast on
Wednesday. This will bring a reprieve from the heat and humidity,
but will also feature good shower and TSTM chances, especially
Tuesday during fropa. This front will be followed by canadian high
pressure bringing much cooler temperatures and lower humidity during
Wednesday. This will also bring lower convective potential
Wednesday, and continuing into Thursday as the high begins to
rebuild both at the surface and aloft. Thursday is interesting
because the guidance shows a weak surface low trying to develop
along a remnant trough just offshore in response to PVA associated
with one final shortwave drifting across the se. While low pressure
development seems plausible, most of the precip will likely remain
offshore and will keep pop low Thursday despite this development.

This ridge will expand across the eastern CONUS into next weekend,
but the orientation is progged to drive the highest heat to our
north, keeping the carolinas warm and humid but unsettled as onshore
flow becomes entrenched and pwats climb to well above 2 inches
again. Will show temps climbing back to above normal along with
above climo precip chances Friday and Saturday.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
As of 00z...VFR conditions should continue through at least 16z
on Sunday, before isolated showers and t-storms develop during
the heat of the day. Coverage should average only 20-30 percent
during the 16-23z timeframe. Southwest surface winds could
exceed 15 knots along the coast with Sunday afternoon's
seabreeze.

Extended outlook... MostlyVFR. Mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day with short duration flight category
restrictions possible. A cold front will bring a higher
probability for showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

Marine
Near term through Sunday ...

as of 930 pm Saturday... I've raised an 'exercise caution'
headline on the coastal waters from myrtle beach northward
through CAPE fear and surf city through 3 am Sunday. This is
due to seas responding strongly to the SW 15-20 knot winds.

Seas were recently reported up to 5 feet at the cormp 'harbor'
buoy just south of southport. The potential for 4-5 foot seas
should be with us most of the night, diminishing late as wind
speeds diminish slightly. Discussion from 700 pm follows...

breezy winds gusting up to 25 knots across the entire marine
area should continue overnight away from shore even after the
seabreeze dies away. Latest buoy reports agree closely with our
forecast sea heights, and no significant changes are being made
to the forecast with this early evening update. Discussion from
300 pm follows...

nocturnal jetting on the order of 30 kt at 1500 ft will keep
winds elevated tonight, mainly 15 to 20 kt. A robust seabreeze
circulation and inland trough will allow winds to peak in the 15
to 20 kt range during the afternoon. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft
with a few 5 ft seas possible across the outermost waters.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Sw winds will dominate Sun and through mon
eve with winds then shifting to NE and nne late Mon night and tue
morning in the wake of a cold front sagging across the waters from n
to s. Wind speeds will be mainly 15 to 20 kt Sun night with
nocturnal jetting in place. Wind speeds Mon should be slightly
lower, mainly 10 to 15 kt. Wind speeds will lower to 10 kt or less
late Mon night. Seas will be 3 to 4 ft Sun night with perhaps some 5
ft seas observed, mainly across the outermost waters. Seas on mon
should be closer to 3 ft with 2 to 3 ft seas currently forecast late
mon night. Of course winds and seas will be stronger in
thunderstorms which will be numerous, especially Mon night.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Saturday... Ne winds will surge behind a cold front
Tuesday to 10-15 kts before veering slowly to the east through
nightfall. High pressure will ridge into the region Wednesday but
maintain its ridge axis to the north. This will keep winds from the
e on Wednesday before the high pushes away turning winds to the S at
the end of the period. Wind speeds Wed Thu will be around 10 kts.

Wave heights will be generally 2-4 ft through the period, with a ne
wind wave giving way to a E SE wind wave and swell later in the
week.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for scz017-023-024-
032-033-039-054>056-058-059.

Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Sunday through Sunday
evening for scz054-056.

Nc... Heat advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Sunday for ncz087-096-099-
105>110.

Beach hazards statement from 6 am edt Sunday through Sunday
evening for ncz106-108.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdw
near term... Rjd tra
short term... Rjd
long term... Jdw
aviation... Tra


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi87 min WSW 8 82°F 1014 hPa74°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi42 min 1017.1 hPa
SSBN7 43 mi132 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi64 min WSW 14 G 19 82°F 80°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi17 minSW 510.00 miFair77°F77°F100%1014.2 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi16 minWSW 710.00 miFair81°F71°F72%1013.9 hPa

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Last 24hrSW3SW3SW3SW3SW3CalmSW3SW9SW7W8SW8W8SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Sun -- 12:12 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     4.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:26 PM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.61.42.43.33.94.13.83.12.21.30.500.10.92.13.34.34.94.94.43.62.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
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Sun -- 01:02 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:02 PM EDT     4.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.71.62.63.43.93.93.42.71.910.3-00.21.22.33.54.44.84.643.22.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.