Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:13PM Friday September 22, 2017 8:17 PM EDT (00:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:17AMMoonset 7:59PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 341 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from Saturday morning through late Monday night...
Tonight..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft after midnight.
Sat..NE winds 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 341 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. The remants of jose will spin nearly stationary off the new england coast the next several days while slowly weakening. Winds and especially seas will increase and build through the weekend into early next week as hurricane maria moves between the east coast of the u.s. And bermuda, producing hazardous marine conditions.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 222104
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
504 pm edt Fri sep 22 2017

Synopsis
Building high pressure aloft from the north will bring dry but
warm air across the carolinas this weekend. Strong rip currents
and large surf along the beaches, as well as hazardous marine
conditions offshore will continue as hurricane maria moves
northward through the atlantic waters. The latest forecast puts
maria just over 400 miles east of the tip of CAPE fear by mid
week next week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... Since convection is struggling through the
window of maximum insolation, diurnal cooling with our lowering ball
of fire will put the curtail on convection into the late afternoon
to early evening, leaving a clear sky tonight as the cumulus
dissolves into the evening sky. Under clear skies and decelerating
winds, patches of fog can be expected between 4am and 8am. Minimums
will settle to 65-68 across most locals and low 70s near the beaches
and icw. The surfzone and area beaches will begin to possess a
hazard as long period SE swell from distant marie intensifies rip
currents, while creating large and powerful breakers near shore.

This will pose a threat to surf- waders, and even small children or
elderly not in the water but standing by the oceans roar, where wave
run-up can be speedy and strong, as wave periods will be on the
order of 15 seconds, representing a high translational velocity into
the surfzone. It is beyond this period however, namely Sunday, that
the surf becomes large. For Saturday 4-7 ft breakers, and a 'high-
risk' of rip currents along all beaches.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
As of 300 pm Friday... Although the weather will remain quiet,
the seas and surf will not. The main impact this weekend will
come from high surf and strong rip currents at the beaches.

Otherwise, jose will continue to churn in the northern atlantic
and maria will continue its trek northward, while high pressure
moves slowly east across the great lakes. The carolinas will
basically be under the influence of high pressure in the
northeasterly flow between these systems. A weaker gradient
flow initially will allow the sea breeze to dominate closer to
the coast helping to produce a greater on shore flow Sat eve.

The pcp water values will be near 1.3 inches closer to the coast
and down near an inch in a drier NE flow Sat eve, but a boundary
from jose will shift south overnight Sat into early sun. This
will produce some clouds and perhaps a spotty shower over the
waters. Otherwise expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and
overnight lows in the mid 60s most places.

The winds will pick up on Sun as gradient tightens with
northerly movement of maria which should reach about 500 to 600
miles to the southeast, but coastal carolinas will remain in dry
air and subsidence as ridge builds down over the area aloft and
we remain on back side of extreme outer periphery of maria. H5
heights will be up near 588 dm with 850 temps up near 16 to 17c.

This will help to keep a dry forecast with warm temps up in the
mid 80s for Sunday. Models show a some drier air advecting in
overnight Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints which may shave a
couple of degrees off overnight low, but still expected in the
mid 60s.

Long term Monday through Friday
As of 300 pm Friday... Hurricane maria will be slowly making its
way north well off the coast of the carolinas through the first
half of the week. Expected impacts will be dangerous surf and
an elevated rip current risk from long period (15 sec) swells.

This swell energy will translate into breaking waves as high as
10 to 15 feet along the beaches of new hanover and pender
counties, and 6 to 10 feet along the beaches of brunswick, horry
and georgetown counties into Wednesday. The swell energy should
begin to ease late Wednesday, but dangerous surf and an
elevated rip current risk will likely continue into Friday.

Northeast to north winds will be breezy along the coast, and gust
occasionally into the 20-30 mph range by Tuesday-Wednesday. It will
be a tough call at this point to determine how much peripheral
moisture from maria will affect the area, however it is reasonable
to expect for the ilm cwa, that SE nc will have the best chance for
precipitation based on the current forecast track of maria. The
highest pops, which will still remain less than 30% at this time,
will be Tuesday into Wednesday, before the cyclone gets picked up by
the westerlies on Thursday as indicated by both the GFS and ecmwf.

Upper level ridging and subsidence west of the hurricane will likely
result in a sharp sky cover gradient and temperatures remaining a
few degrees above normal through the week.

Aviation 21z Friday through Wednesday
As of 18z... Afternoon cumulus of sct-bkn050 will prevail
along the coastal interior with vcsh by mid afternoon. Any
convection should dissipate after 00z this evening. A light
onshore wind will guide the sea breeze front inland, and along
this boundary is where a shower or storm will be favored. High
pressure over the great lakes will push drier air southwestward
today and Saturday.VFR conditions this evening may decrease to
MVFR ifr again late tonight in patchy ground fog, manly aft 9z.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period with
the exception of possible MVFR ifr conditions due to low clouds
and fog each morning, mainly between 9z-12z.

Marine
Near term through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Although N through ene winds this period
will not be strong, increasing SE swell from maria has prompted
a 'hazardous seas' advisory, effective from 6 am Saturday
through at least early next week, likely into mid-week, since
maria will slow down once offshore of the carolinas. 4-7 foot se
waves every 15 seconds will produce turbulence and standing
waves in area inlets during the outgoing tides, while increasing
the width of the surfzone of tumultuous breakers. No tstms are
expected through Saturday over the 0-20 nm waters. Onshore winds
can be expected Saturday with high pressure to the north and
maria east of the bahamas.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night ...

as of 300 pm Friday... High pressure will extend down from the
great lakes this weekend as jose continues to spin in the north
atlantic and maria treks north from north of the
bahamas. A general northeasterly flow will increase heading
into Sunday up to 15 to 20 kts in the outer waters, but
otherwise winds will be in the 5 to 10 kt range. A very long
period swell up to 11 to 15 seconds will continue through the
weekend. An increasing northeast shorter period wind swell will
combine with this longer period swell to produce an increase in
seas from near 6 to 7 ft in outer waters Sat eve up to 10 to 12
ft Sun night into Monday. Expect shoaling and large breaking
waves along the length of frying pan shoals. A small craft
advisory for hazardous seas mainly due to long period swells
will continue through the period.

Long term Monday through Wednesday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Long period southeasterly swells will be
ongoing Monday, ranging from as high as 8 to 10 feet every 15
seconds in the outer waters (15-20 nm). South of CAPE fear,
these are likely to decay to 4 to 6 feet as they approach the
coast, but north of CAPE fear, 6 to 8 footers will push in
closer. Based on the latest forecast track for maria, northerly
winds will peak Tuesday night into Wednesday, with 20 to 25
knots north of CAPE fear. South of CAPE fear, a 15 to 20 knot
range can be expected. Expect small craft advisory conditions
through the entire period.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 pm Friday... A coastal flood advisory may be needed
for downtown wilmington and the lower CAPE fear but confidence
is low because of the marginality. Therefor will allow a few
more observations to arrive through afternoon, take into account
departures before an issuance if any. If a coastal flood
advisory is issued, the flooding itself will remain very minor.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for scz054-056.

Nc... High rip current risk from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for ncz106-108-110.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 6 am Saturday to
6 am edt Tuesday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis...

near term... Mjc
short term... Rgz
long term... Crm
aviation... Mjc
marine...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi92 min E 6 79°F 1016 hPa73°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 18 mi47 min 1015.2 hPa
SSBN7 43 mi137 min 2 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi189 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 81°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi22 minENE 310.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1015.9 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi21 minESE 410.00 miFair77°F73°F88%1016.2 hPa

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Last 24hrW4E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE4SE5SE5E5E4E7SE7E7E3E3
1 day agoSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW4SW3W3CalmW3CalmCalmSE4S6S5S3S3N3W4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W4W5W6W4W5SW6NW6W6NW3W5S6S3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Fri -- 04:14 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:09 AM EDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:19 PM EDT     4.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.81.60.70.20.41.42.73.94.85.35.14.43.42.31.20.50.41.12.33.54.54.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
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Fri -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:45 AM EDT     5.09 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:29 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:55 PM EDT     4.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.33.42.41.30.50.20.61.734.14.95.14.7431.910.40.51.32.63.74.54.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.