Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pawleys Island, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:33PM Thursday January 17, 2019 4:06 AM EST (09:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:17PMMoonset 3:29AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 318 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Today..E winds 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Seas 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft.
AMZ200 318 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will shift offshore today. A weak cold front will cross the waters early Friday, followed by a more potent storm system Saturday night into Sunday. Arctic high pressure will follow Sunday night thru Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pawleys Island, SC
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location: 33.45, -79.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 170539
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1239 am est Thu jan 17 2019

Synopsis
Cold high pressure will move offshore Thursday while weak low
pressure on its heels brings a few showers early Friday. Strong
low pressure passing west and north of the area this weekend
will bring warming, and a good chance of rain Sunday as a cold
front crosses the coast. Cold air will return early next week
as canadian high pressure dives into the carolinas.

Near term through today
As of 10 pm Wednesday... Previous forecast remains on track; no
major changes necessary with this update.

Previous discussion... As of 300 pm Wednesday... Elongated ridge
axis offshore overnight will be absorbed by second, larger area
of high pressure extending south from the great lakes region.

Gradient will remain weak with light to calm surface winds
overnight. Flow just above the surface will be from the
southwest, which will lead to a slight increase in low level
moisture. Fog may become an issue early Thu due to good
radiational cooling and the slight bump in moisture. Weak warm
advection will lead to a slight bump in lows overnight with
temps ranging from upper 20s to mid 30s.

Larger high pressure centered to the north shifts east on thu, with
low-level flow becoming southerly during the day. Gradient remains
light, keeping flow weak, but there will be a definite shift to a
warm advection regime tomorrow. Weak shortwave and resulting surface
low emerging from the central plains will lift northeast, across the
ky and oh valleys during the day. Associated cold front approaches
from the west late in the day, accompanied by increasing moisture.

Moisture will still be lacking however. Forecast soundings keep
precipitable water well below 1 inch through tomorrow evening and
subsidence layer around 800 mb will be tough to overcome. At this
point do not anticipate much in the way of showers through the end
of the period and will keep precip chances under 20% through thu.

Highs will be near to slightly above climo on the back of increasing
warm advection, mid to upper 50s.

Short term tonight through Friday night
As of 352 pm Wednesday... Massive vortex around northern ontario
will help propel a short-wave ripple in the h5 flow across the
coast late Thursday night. A brief period exists Thursday
evening where enhanced column moisture and convergence could
bring showers, with little measurable rainfall expectation.

The system carries little cold air advection and overall the
system does not disrupt a warming trend, but may delay it a bit
as a weak cold front briefly dips across SE nc on Friday.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
As of 352 pm Wednesday... Warming temperature trend prevails
this weekend, bringing maximums well into the 60s, about 10
degrees above mid january normals. Pre-frontal, warm air
advection Saturday will transition into frontal passage Sunday,
in morning and off the coast in early afternoon. Will retain
slight chance of a TSTM Sunday because the low-level convergence
and dynamical support aloft should work in concert, and for what
it may contribute, near maximum diurnal warmth in FROPA closer
to the coast. In question remains available instability.

Frigid air invades again as canadian high pressure swoops into
the carolinas. As the cold high approaches, we probably should
expect widespread 20s next Tuesday morning, isolated teens.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 06z... A very weak surface trough is moving across the area
otherwise skies are mostly clear and winds light to calm. Some
fog has already formed and expect mostly MVFR br off and on
mostly on toward daybreak.VFR conditions will develop shortly
thereafter.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR until Saturday and into Sunday when
MVFR conditions are possible in showers Saturday and due to cigs
Sunday.VFR Monday.

Marine
Near term through Thursday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... High pressure over the waters tonight
will be absorbed by larger high centered over the great lake
early thu. Gradient will remain weak into Thu afternoon, keeping
speeds 10 kt or less. Direction will initially be from the
north but as the high to the north shifts east, Thu afternoon,
southerly flow will develop. Period ends with south to southwest
flow over the waters, however speeds will remain under 10 kt.

Seas will remain 2 ft or less through the period with an east-
southeast swell being dominant.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night ...

as of 352 pm Wednesday... A cold front late Thursday night will
bring winds from SW to W into Friday but no advisories expected
as winds remain 15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt. Showers late
Thursday night may enhance gusts locally, briefly. Because winds
will be mainly offshore and swell has faded, wave heights will
remain low this period.

Long term Saturday through Monday ...

as of 352 pm Wednesday... Worsening marine conditions can be
expected beginning late in the day as a strong cold front
approaches the waters, and SE winds mount to 20-25 knots
Saturday night. As balmy gulf stream air encounters cool inshore
waters, we may see sea fog late Saturday into Sunday along with
rough and hazardous wave action. By Sunday s-ssw waves of 4-8 ft
every 8-9 seconds will dominate waters. Sw-w winds Sunday will
turn to NW Sunday night as cold air dives in, and advisories
flags will continue.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... 08
near term... Iii mas
short term... Mjc
long term... Mjc
aviation... Shk
marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 8 mi82 min NNW 2.9 38°F 1024 hPa38°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 43 mi59 min NNW 3.9 G 9.7 47°F 53°F1024.9 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi72 minN 07.00 miFair32°F32°F100%1025.1 hPa
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC19 mi71 minN 08.00 miFair36°F35°F97%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3W5W7CalmW7SW4W6CalmCalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN9N7NW6N5N4N5CalmNW3NW5NW4NW4NW6NW6NW5N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Thu -- 03:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:01 AM EST     4.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:00 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:23 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.12.33.54.34.54.33.82.921.30.70.40.81.62.63.43.83.73.32.51.60.80-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Allston Creek, South Carolina
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Allston Creek
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Thu -- 03:28 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 AM EST     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:59 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.31.32.63.74.34.443.42.61.810.60.40.91.82.83.43.73.532.21.30.5-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.