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FXUS64 KBMX 271935 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 235 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. At the surface, there is some damming along the Appalachians and into northeast Alabama, but we're pulling out of the cool season, so it's not making much of a noticeable impact on temperatures.
Expect to see highs in the mid 80s again today. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph. The pattern looks almost identical tomorrow. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge.
Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon.

86/Martin

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Best chances for rainfall next week will be Monday afternoon and Monday night. An upper trof over the Plains states on Sunday will lift towards the Great Lakes region. A trailing upper trof axis will push into the Central Gulf Coast states Monday through Tuesday. The forcing associated with the upper trof will be waning as it approaches Alabama. The NAM and GFS models show the more robust convection trending southeast towards the better instability over southern Mississippi, with the northern portion of the line weakening. This should keep any severe storms over Mississippi, which lines up with the Day3 SPC convective outlook. The ECMWF model shows a more amplified and slower trof. Hopefully, some beneficial rainfall will occur before this system lifts out of the area on Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, rainfall chances decrease as a weak upper ridge builds over the area.

58/rose

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2024

Some low-level cu and high-level cirrus will pass across the area through the TAF period, but VFR conditions are expected to continue.
A broad region of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic, and a strengthening low-pressure system over the Central Plains is contributing to an enhanced pressure gradient and 15 to 20 kt wind gusts this afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southeast decreasing to around 5 to 8 kts overnight.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Southerly low level flow will keep afternoon RH values well above critical values. No wetting rain through Monday morning, with increasing rain chances across west Alabama Monday afternoon and Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 60 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 60 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 64 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 65 84 62 83 / 0 10 0 40 Calera 64 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 63 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10 Troy 63 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 10

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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