Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Brook Highland, AL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:13PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 1:44 PM CDT (18:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:46PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brook Highland, AL
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location: 33.45, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
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Fxus64 kbmx 161701
afdbmx
area forecast discussion
national weather service birmingham al
1201 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018

Update
For 18z aviation.

Short term
Updated for dense fog advisory expiration.

A slow moving cold front was positioned across central alabama
this morning with temperatures falling into the 50's across our
far northern counties while readings are remaining in the low 70's
ahead of the front in our southeast counties.

An upper level disturbance will move east over the area later
today and will promote additional shower activity. Isentropic
processes will favor the highest chance of rain near and north of
the surface front.

Temperatures will range from the 60's to the north of the front
with readings in the 70's near the front and temperatures will
climb into the upper 70's to the low 80's south of the front.

The front is expected to stall later today between the i-20 and
i-85 corridors with best rain chances remaining near and north of
the surface front. Temperatures will again range considerably
overnight with lows in the upper 40's to low 50's north compared
to readings in the lower to mid 60's south of the front.

05

Long term
Wednesday and Thursday.

Lingering effects from frontal passage (fropa) will be felt on
Wednesday in the form of light rainfall scattered across the
forecast area through the evening. Northerly winds will continue to
provide cold air advection and decreasing tropospheric moisture
through Thursday as the center of high pressure in the plains moves
eastward to our north near the ohio valley. For now have placed 20-
30% pops in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon with decreasing
coverage & southward progression through the evening as low-level
confluent flow & isentropic ascent weakens. Temperature wise, 60s
and 70s are expected for daytime highs with a few counties in the
far southeast reaching the low 80s. Cool low temperatures wed
night Thu morning where mid to upper 40s are likely across the
north, increasing to upper 50s in the south under partly cloudy
skies. Dry on Thursday with pleasant conditions & temperatures,
highs in the mid 60s upper 70s overall with a shift to easterly
winds as high pressure to our north slides towards the east coast.

Friday through Sunday.

After a brief break in the weather, another approaching trough &
frontal boundary will enter the picture by Friday evening. A digging
trough and cold air mass will move from south-central canada and
spill into the northern plains midwest before eventually moving
southward into our region Saturday. With easterly flow in place,
surface low-level pre-frontal winds will veer with time giving a
small window of warm air advection and increasing moisture.

Frontogenetic forcing up through ~700mb will be in place across
field of higher moisture availability (pws ~1.6") and will likely
develop areas of light to moderate rain Saturday afternoon.

Instability looks to remain low, so have left thunder out of grids
at this time though wouldn't be surprised to see areas in the
southeast hear a few rumbles in heavier showers. Though isentropic
ascent keeps a slight chance of light rain across the south, this
system should move along fairly quickly with FROPA expected by
Saturday evening. Subsidence will improve conditions thereafter with
drier air and sunny skies on Sunday. Highs in the low 60s low 70s
expected by then.

Monday and Tuesday.

High pressure dominates weather conditions through the end of the
forecast period. After drying out on Sunday, the beginning of the
next work week appears to remain calm and pleasant as the jet stream
pattern remains under a period of transition. Split flow is
suggested in the extended with the polar jet amplifying back up into
canada by Tuesday. A persistent upper-level low near the desert
southwest has been aiding in this configuration for the past several
days. Marginal flow aloft will remain in place here with westerly h3
sub-tropical jet stream winds ~50 kts. Pre-dominant easterly winds
at the surface should keep daily our weather pleasant and dry
overall with temperatures in the upper 60s lower 70s under mostly
sunny skies.

40 sizemore

Aviation
18z TAF discussion.

A frontal boundary will bring scattered to widespread rain showers
through the afternoon and evening. Low level moisture ahead of
this front has kept MVFR toVFR ceilings at all TAF sites... With
little to no improvement expected before rain begins. All sites
except kmgm and ktoi could see rain begin in late afternoon... With
slightly delayed timing for kmgm and ktoi with the front moving nw
to se. With showers that do move over each site... Visibilities and
ceilings are expected to decrease. Winds will remain above 5 kts
at all sites except kmgm and ktoi... So not expecting much in the
way of fog development... Other than what develops from the local
rain showers. Kmgm and ktoi could see fog overnight with lighter
winds... And later arrival of rain showers. Rain should decrease in
the late morning... With the front moving east of the area by noon
Wednesday.

24

Fire weather
Rain chances will increase today as a front slowly moves through
the region. Cooler readings return by mid week with a rain break
for late Wednesday into Thursday. However, rain chances return
again for late Friday into the weekend as another frontal system
moves into the area. No fire weather concerns are expected.

Preliminary point temps pops
Gadsden 70 55 67 48 71 90 70 30 10 0
anniston 73 58 70 50 73 70 50 30 10 0
birmingham 70 56 67 51 71 80 60 30 10 0
tuscaloosa 69 57 69 51 72 80 60 30 10 10
calera 73 58 69 51 72 60 50 30 10 10
auburn 82 63 74 55 73 40 30 20 10 10
montgomery 85 64 77 56 77 40 40 20 10 10
troy 86 66 80 56 77 30 40 20 0 10

Bmx watches warnings advisories
None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport, AL8 mi52 minENE 410.00 miOvercast70°F64°F82%1020.8 hPa
Alabaster, Shelby County Airport, AL19 mi52 minVar 310.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from BHM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8
G14
W6W7NW7N6N4CalmCalmNW5N3N5N8N7N8N9N9NE7NE3NE44N3N5NE4E4
1 day agoS8S10S10
G17
S7S6S3SE54SE554SE6SE6S5S4CalmCalmCalmSE3S5S6Calm3SW6
2 days agoCalmCalmW6NW4N5N3E3E4CalmE3CalmE7E43E4E5CalmE4CalmS5SE3S5S8S11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Birmingham, AL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Birmingham, AL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.