Thursday, June29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Andrews, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 29, 2017 11:49 AM EDT (15:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 948 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Rest of today..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 948 Am Edt Thu Jun 29 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will drift farther off the north carolina coast this afternoon into Friday. The high will remain the dominant surface feature through the period, keeping winds out of the southwest through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Andrews, SC
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location: 33.5, -79.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 291421
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
1020 am edt Thu jun 29 2017

It will be dry through the day, but showers and thunderstorms will
return Friday and remain in the forecast each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. Summertime heat and humidity will
return for the weekend, becoming hot next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1015 am Thursday... Water vapor imagery shows a swath of dry air
across the forecast area with mid-level ridging in place. Morning
soundings indicate low precipitable water while better instability
was found farther south. As a result, the forecast will remain pop-
free into the evening. However, as surface high pressure slides
eastward the door will open for higher precipitable water and
increasing instability into the short term period. Regarding max
temperatures today, favor going slightly above guidance along the
coast and a blend farther inland. Overall, no significant changes
were made to the forecast with this update.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... It will become warmer and more humid
during this period with the risk for thunderstorms returning.

High pressure off the mid-atlantic and mid-level ridging will
increase heights with 850 mb temps climbing to 17c on Fri and
19c on sat. Highs in the mid 80s Fri will increase to the upper
80s and lower 90s sat. Heat index values will be around 100
degrees on sat. Lows will be in the 70s, mid and upper 70s sat

As the ridge amplifies offshore, moisture gets channeled into
the eastern carolinas which increases precipitable water values
to 2 to 2.25 inches. A trough coincident with a significant mid-
level shortwave lifting across the area Fri should allow for
scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms. A
weaker impulse aloft on Sat combined with strong heating should
also allow for at least scattered thunderstorms. Forcing looks
stronger for convection on Fri while instability should be higher
on sat.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 300 pm Wednesday... After the cool weather of the last couple
of days, summer heat and humidity should come roaring back next
week. Persistent upper level ridging across florida and the gulf
coast and the bermuda high offshore will allow heat and humidity to
build through the period. A time-series plot of forecast 850 mb
temps shows +17.5c Sunday, and +18c Monday through Wednesday.

The ECMWF actually has some forecast 850 mb temps near +20c by
Wednesday, however we've noticed over the past several years
there is a summer warm bias in the ECMWF at the extended range.

The airmass should be moderately to strongly unstable through the
period with CAPE values rising to 2000-3000 j kg each afternoon.

West to northwest flow aloft, a pinned seabreeze near the coast, and
a well-defined piedmont trough (perhaps evolving into an inland
thermal low for a few days next week) should set the stage for
scattered diurnally-driven storms each day. Precipitable water
values will fall to around 1.8 inches early next week.

Afternoon highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s will
bring heat indices to 100 to 103 degrees in most locations away
from the beaches each day next week.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z...VFR will continue into tonight with surface high to
the northeast providing onshore flow. Sea breeze will make its
way inland with some cumulus clouds developing along it. No
rainfall is expected, but marginal increase in low level
moisture will lead to some potential for MVFR or even ifr
ceilings as the forecast period comes to an end Fri morning,
especially at kilm and kcre.

Extended outlook... Brief MVFR ifr possible in and near diurnal
driven convection starting Friday. Brief morning MVFR ifr
possible from fog or low stratus between 08-12z starting sat.

Near term through tonight ...

as of 1015 am Thursday... Surface ridge axis is situated just
north of the waters resulting in light ne-e flow. The flow will
strengthen during the afternoon and evening as the sea breeze
circulation evolves with some veering. Seas are expected to
be around 3 ft or less through tonight.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Wind speeds will be increasing during
this period, but are expected to remain below small craft should
exercise caution criteria. Wind speeds will be 10 to 15 kt fri
and Fri night increasing to 15 to 20 kt during Sat and through
sat night as a thermal trough helps to tighten the gradient. The
wind direction will be SE to S on fri, becoming SW beginning
fri night. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft later
sat and Sat night.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 300 pm Wednesday... Bermuda high pressure well offshore
will extend its ridge axis westward across florida and into the
northern gulf of mexico Sunday and into early next week. With
the ridge remaining south of the area, mainly southwesterly
winds are expected through the period with the typical afternoon
seabreeze backing wind directions more southerly with an
increase in wind speeds.

With inland highs in the 90s and westerly winds aloft, there
should be scattered thunderstorms making their way down to the
beaches and offshore virtually every afternoon. Average sea
heights of 2-3 feet are expected.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term... Srp
short term... Rjd
long term... Tra
aviation... Rjd

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 18 mi65 min E 9.9 80°F 1023 hPa68°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 31 mi50 min 1022.7 hPa (+0.4)
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 49 mi42 min E 14 G 18 85°F 82°F1022.4 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi55 minE 910.00 miFair82°F68°F62%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE10E6E8E8E8E9E8E7E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4--E7E9
1 day agoN3E4E5CalmSE8SE7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5N4NE4N5NE5NE11
2 days agoNE7E11

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Thu -- 12:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:33 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:30 AM EDT     2.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Black River (south of Dunbar), South Carolina
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Black River (south of Dunbar)
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Thu -- 12:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:15 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:02 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.