Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Andrews, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:39PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:15 PM EST (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:40AMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 848 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 am est Tuesday through Tuesday afternoon...
Overnight..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers. Patchy fog.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 848 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Small craft advisory conditions and patchy sea fog are expected late tonight and Tuesday. A cold front to the west will cross the waters on Tuesday. High pressure will build in behind this front, moving offshore Friday and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Andrews, SC
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location: 33.5, -79.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 230146
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
846 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight
and Tuesday along with some gusty winds. Dry and seasonable
weather will follow Wednesday through Friday. Weekend temperatures
will warm again ahead of a cold front along with the risk for
more showers, especially on Sunday. The passage of another cold
front will bring a return to seasonable temperatures on Monday.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 800 pm Monday... Marginal risk for severe weather includes
portions of the area overnight. We have increased pops to at
least likely throughout. The main area of showers was moving ne
across the western carolinas and georgia. These showers will
continue to edge eastward ahead of a cold front. Extrapolation
brings the leading edge of the showers into our western zones
within a couple hours either side of about 2 am. A slow and
steady eastward progression would then bring the leading edge of
the showers into the central and eastern portions of the fa
within a couple hours either side of about 5 am. We are
expecting showers and isolated thunderstorms and can not rule
out strong or possibly even a severe wind gust, especially
within a few hours either side of daybreak.

Increasing southerly winds will have the two pronged effect of
keeping temps from falling much overnight, while also advecting
more moisture into the near-surface layer. Temps will be lowest
this eve, in the 50s, and then trending higher toward morning.

Patchy fog and stratus have already begun to develop. Forecast
profiles show full saturation developing near the surface,
supportive of fog, however the winds ramp up quickly, rising to
25 kt or more at the top of the nocturnal pbl even by midnight,
so a widespread low stratus layer will develop. Highest risk for
sustainable fog will be along the immediate coast where sea fog
will become at least patchy.

Several of the reliable high-res models suggest a convective
"split" across the CWA as the best dynamics lift NE while
convection across the gom and off fl "steal" the moisture to the
south. Even so, the local area should see a line of showers
with embedded tstms thanks to sref MLCAPE of 200-300 j kg
combined with very strong shear as the LLJ rises to 50 kt and
sherb values approach 1.0. SPC has included portions of the
area in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms as synoptic
forcing and better boundary layer moistening impinge on the
area from the W toward morning.

Convection will exit late Tue morning, but the very strong wind
fields remain. As the column dries and sunshine develops, wind
gusts from the west may reach 30-35 mph, slightly higher
possible if the maximum available mixing (40+ kt on forecast
soundings) occurs. Additionally, the true cold advection lags
considerably into Tue aftn, so highs will reach over 70 in many
places, with slightly earlier CAA west, and more cloud cover
east, keeping those areas in the upper 60s. The exception may be
where sea fog develops and advects onshore. The setup is not
ideal for sea fog, but with continued cold ocean waters and
strong S SW winds driving dewpoints to near 60, have added
patchy sea fog for the immediate coast. If this becomes more
widespread, highs would be severely limited despite the warm
airmass.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... Surface high building in from the west
and subtle 5h troughing over the much of the CONUS will be the
story during the period. Weak cold advection Tue night will come
to an end before daybreak. Cooler air mass and light winds
combined with clear skies will allow for some radiational
cooling, although conditions will not be ideal. Lows will end up
near to slightly above climo. High pressure continues to drift
east Wed and Wed night, ending up over the tn valley as the
period ends. Shortwave quickly moving from the upper mississippi
valley to the mid-atlantic Wed will drag a cold front across
the area late wed. The front passes dry but will bring a
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air to the region. Clear
skies in the morning will give way to increasing high clouds as
the shortwave passes to the north. Cloud is not likely to be
thick enough to block out the Sun but it will limit heating a
bit. Highs Wed will be near to slightly above climo. Reinforcing
shot of cold air moves in Wed night with temps dropping to or
just below freezing. Mixed boundary layer should prevent most
areas from experiencing any significant radiational cooling.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... Thursday into Friday will bring a transition
to seasonable weather as high pressure GOES from our west to our
northeast. Onshore flow Saturday will import atlantic moisture into
the area and clouds should increase. A warmer afternoon is also
expected though ocean moderation may extend pretty far inland. Winds
go south on Sunday ahead of a strong upper wave and surface cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely including some areas
of moderate to heavy rainfall. Back to sunny and seasonable on
Monday.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 00z... Heavier showers have moved NE of the terminals. A
cold front will approach from the west tonight. MVFR will
develop this evening at kflo klbt. At the coast dewpoints in the
50s with water temps in the 40s, along with added moisture from
rain that fell into the cool shelf waters this afternoon, has
set the stage for sea fog development. Coastal cams confirm
vsbys beginning to drop near kcre kmyr. Confidence in timing is
low, but lifr could affect kcre kmyr by 02z. Kilm may be far
enough inland to escape the sea fog.

Surface winds will become south at 10-15 knots tonight. There
will be llws but marginal due to surface wind speeds. Rain will
spread across the terminals from the west by midnight with
MVFR ifr likely, possibly breaking up the lifr at kcre kmyr as
it reaches the coast in the early morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible coastal terminals around daybreak.

Vfr develops at kflo klbt by noon and early-mid afternoon at
the coastal terminals.

Extended outlook... BecomingVFR Tuesday evening, and remainingVFR
through the end of the forecast period.

Marine
Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 800 pm Monday... Patchy sea fog and small craft advisory
conditions this period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
become increasingly likely toward morning and through midday and
early afternoon tue.

High pressure exiting to the east will give way to a cold front
approaching from the west. This will drive a strengthening warm
sector across the waters, so winds will veer to the south
tonight, and then southwest on tue, with speeds increasing
steadily to 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. This will
build seas to 4 to 7 ft, highest across the outer portions of
the northern waters.

A line of convection will likely move across the waters early
on tue. This will bring the potential for brief heavy rainfall
and cloud to sea lightning, as well as locally higher seas and
stronger wind gusts.

Additionally, although the setup is not ideal for sea fog,
increasing S SW winds will advect high dewpoint air across the
cold shelf waters. SREF probabilities are relatively high, 30-
40%, for low visibility late tonight and through much of tue,
so have included patchy sea fog. Visibility restrictions to 1 nm
or less are expected to be patchy as sea stratus seems more
probable in this scenario. However, should the expanding stratus
lower and persist as sea fog, then a dense fog advisory would
be required across the water.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... High pressure will build in from the west
through the period. Winds will slowly veer from west to
northwest Tue night but a lack of cold advection keeps wind
speeds mainly on the low end of the 15 to 20 kt range. Gradient
further weakens on Wed with northwest flow dropping to 10 kt or
less. Dry cold front moves across the area late Wed with some
modest cold advection developing Wed night. Winds increase to 15
to 20 kt overnight, becoming northerly late in the period.

Offshore flow through the period will keep seas under headline
criteria but seas as high as 4 or 5 ft will be possible tue
night. By Wed morning seas seas will be 2 to 3 ft and will
remain 2 to 3 ft through the end of the period.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... High pressure initially to our west on
Thursday bringing northerly flow. The high shifts offshore and
becomes centered further to the north on Friday. Northerly winds
will start diminishing and veering. Expect easterly winds by
Friday and SE on Saturday. Swell energy will increase as a long
onshore fetch develops but any increase in wind wave should be
minimal.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for amz250-
252-254-256.

Near term... Rjd jdw
short term... Iii
long term... mbb
aviation... Mrr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 18 mi150 min ENE 2.9 52°F 1019 hPa52°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 31 mi45 min 1021.5 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 49 mi67 min SSE 5.8 G 9.7 53°F 51°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi20 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F50°F100%1018.6 hPa

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE6SE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4SW4SW5SW3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E6SE7SE5E3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW3SW5CalmSW5W6W5SW5W4SW4W6SW5SW3W5W5W9SW11SW11SW10SW6S6S5S6SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     1.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:03 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:58 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:38 PM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.71.21.61.81.71.61.30.90.60.30.20.30.71.21.61.81.91.71.51.10.70.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Black River (south of Dunbar), South Carolina
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Black River (south of Dunbar)
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Mon -- 02:12 AM EST     2.25 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:08 AM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:35 PM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:57 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.622.22.21.91.51.10.60.30.20.30.81.522.32.32.21.81.30.80.40.20.10.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.