Thursday, September21, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Andrews, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:14PM Thursday September 21, 2017 9:52 AM EDT (13:52 UTC) Moonrise 7:21AMMoonset 7:26PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 317 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Today..W winds 10 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms this morning.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 317 Am Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Hurricane jose will spin nearly stationary off the mid-atlantic coast the next several days. Winds will remain relatively light across the local waters this week as the pressure pattern remains flat, but seas will build late in the week as hurricane maria approaches the bahamas, and se swell moves onto the east coast. Marie is expected to pass offshore of the carolinas next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Andrews, SC
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location: 33.5, -79.46     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 211033
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
633 am edt Thu sep 21 2017

Weak high pressure across the great lakes will control our
weather through the weekend. Tropical storm jose off the mid-
atlantic coast should weaken, while major hurricane maria will
bring increasing ocean swells and strengthening rip currents to
the beaches by Friday. Maria is expected to move north and
remain offshore of the carolinas Monday and Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 300 am Thursday... Mid level low pressure and or troughing
will continue to linger across the area through the period. At
the surface it will be a weak trough or convergence boundary
aligned mostly inland. These features sparked a decent coverage
of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday ans see no reason why the
same wouldn't today. I have increased the pops slightly for
today mainly along the northern tier of counties where the best
coupled forcing will reside. As for highs, I opted for the
mostly warmer met numbers which performed slightly better
Wednesday. We should see a few more sites meet or eclipse the
ninety degree mark. Lows Friday morning will mostly be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 300 am Thursday... A convoluted upper air pattern will
exist Friday and Saturday as a 500 mb high sits over the great
lakes, while a shear zone extending southwestward from tropical
storm jose closes off into an upper low over southern georgia
and alabama. The surface pattern is simpler as there is no
reflection of the upper low, only the broad high pressure over
the great lakes which remains in place through the period. In
the western atlantic, tropical storm jose is expected to
continue weakening and should lose its remaining tropical
characteristics by Friday afternoon or evening. Hurricane maria
should turn northward near 72w longitude into the upper trough
created by TS jose. If it weren't for jose, the great lakes
upper ridge would likely bridge across to the bermuda ridge well
offshore, steering maria into the southeastern u.S.

Friday afternoon could see scattered showers and t-storms
develop along the grand strand coast, pushing west-southwestward
toward florence and kingstree by late in the day. Seabreeze-
enhancement to low-level convergence looks to be the key for
this mesoscale precipitation event which appears to be
reasonably handled by the 3km NAM and rgem models. By Saturday
drier air in the northeasterly flow should make showers much
more unlikely to develop.

Low-level east to northeasterly winds should drop temperatures
down a couple of degrees from the unseasonably warm temps of the
past few days. 850 mb temps around +14c (compared to +17c
Wednesday) means highs should only reach the lower 80s at the
coast both days with 86-87 expected inland.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 330 pm Wednesday... If NHC maria forecast tracks hold, the
extended forecast will feature a healthy dose of warm late
summer weather and mainly dry, with daytime temperatures running
2-5 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Dry air
aloft remains in place of an extent that only showers are
advertised in the extended period. The exception is Tuesday when
we have the deepest moisture in place as maria passes between
the carolinas and bermuda, an outer band may fling ashore.

Otherwise mainly dry and warm this period.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 12z... A weak trough lying across the eastern carolinas
will feature broadly converging surface winds across the area
today. This by itself would probably produce some towering
cumulus this afternoon and maybe an isolated shower or two.

However unusually cold temperatures aloft associated with an
upper level trough will help produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Activity should begin developing
around 18z and should last through sunset. Until specific storm
cells begin developing I have addressed the thunderstorm
potential with vcts vcsh in the aviation forecasts. Light
surface winds will remain generally N NW inland, but will turn
e SE near the coast this afternoon with the seabreeze.

Vfr conditions are expected tonight after the day's convection
dies away, however with light winds and mainly clear skies
ground fog is expected to develop late. Visibilities are
currently progged to fall to 3-5 miles, however this could be
dropped lower in later forecasts depending on precisely where
showers and t-storms develop later today.

Extended outlook... MainlyVFR conditions through the period are
expected with the exception of a few hours of early morning low
clouds or fog most mornings through the period. The highest
risk of ifr conditions will be in the 0900-1200z timeframe each

Near term through tonight ...

as of 300 am Thursday... A light south to southwest wind is currently in
place across the waters. There should be a brief westerly turn to
the winds later this morning before the southerly component returns
later mostly driven by the sea breeze and the enhancement of the
inland trough. Speeds throughout should be ten knots or less. Seas
are mostly 2-3 feet and should remain so with a more significant
swell component arriving just after the near term period.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

as of 300 am Thursday... Weak high pressure will remain situated
over the northern mid-atlantic states Friday through Saturday,
while offshore a pair of tropical systems (jose and maria)
swirl across the western atlantic ocean. For Friday and Saturday
our winds will be driven primarily by the weak high, with ne-e
winds around 10 knots. By Saturday evening the broad outer
circulation of hurricane maria will begin to increase NE winds
to around 15 knots.

Maria's long-period swells will impact the area well ahead of
any increase in wind. Dominant wave periods around 15 seconds
will slowly increase in size and could reach 6 feet as early as
daybreak Saturday. Look for the issuance of small craft
advisories this weekend.

Long term Sunday through Monday ...

as of 330 pm Monday... Increasingly dangerous marine conditions
this period as maria generates large SE swell, as she moves
north, east of the bahamas. If NHC forecast tracks hold, we can
expect increasing NE and N winds late Sunday and Monday but
probably below gale force through Monday. Even if winds do not
become strong this period, we will still likely require a
headline for large swell-heights. This will produce inlet
turbulence during the outgoing tides as well, and larger than
breakers near ocean sandbars, while extending the width of the
surf zone. Expect seas of 6-10 feet, mainly in SE swell by late

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 10 am this morning to noon edt
today for ncz107.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tra
near term... Shk
short term... Tra
long term... Mjc
aviation... Tra

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 18 mi128 min WNW 4.1 74°F 1017 hPa73°F
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 31 mi65 min 1016.6 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 49 mi105 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 80°F1017 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown County Airport , SC15 mi58 minW 410.00 miFair73°F73°F100%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from GGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6W4W5SW6NW6W6NW3W5S6S3S4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW4SW3W3
1 day agoNW4NW8NW7NW9
2 days agoN5N6N7N3SE8SE6SE4E4SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Mt. Pleasant Plantation, Black River, South Carolina
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Mt. Pleasant Plantation
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Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:15 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Black River (south of Dunbar), South Carolina
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Black River (south of Dunbar)
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Thu -- 12:38 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:06 PM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:46 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.