Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:48PM Sunday December 16, 2018 6:37 PM PST (02:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 206 Pm Pst Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 16 seconds, building to 4 to 6 ft at 20 seconds after midnight. Slight chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 21 seconds, building to 7 to 9 ft at 19 seconds in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 7 to 9 ft at 18 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 18 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 18 seconds.
Wed night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 18 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ600 206 Pm Pst Sun Dec 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z...or 1 pm pst, a 968 mb low was located in the gulf of alaska with a cold front extending south well off the northern california coast. The cold front will approach the coastal waters early Mon. A very large nw to W swell will affect the coastal waters Mon through Tue, with potentially dangerous conditions for west and nw facing harbor entrances.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 170041
afdlox
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
441 pm pst Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis 16 322 pm.

A weak storm system will bring rainy conditions to the region,
starting tonight on the central coast and spreading south of point
conception Monday morning. The best chance of rain will be from
ventura county northward. Rain will taper off by Monday evening,
with clearing Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will warm
to above normal by mid week.

Short term (tdy-wed) 16 251 pm.

The latest look at the regional radar mosaic shows rain showers
starting to move into monterey county this afternoon. Steady rain
is located upstream closer to the bay area and out into the
eastern pacific ocean. The band of rain showers is perfectly
aligned with the cooling clouds tops on infrared imagery
currently. A cold front with a trough centered near 42n and 130w
is now entering the north coast of california. The front, stretching
about 850 miles to the southwest of eureka, will sweep into the
area through Monday while weakening. The tail end of the frontal
boundary will clip areas south of point conception as it washes
out on Monday. Pops were adjusted and tweaked in an earlier update
this morning. With forecast guidance closing in on 90-100 pops for
central coast sites, categorical pops were introduced and
expanded for late tonight and into Monday morning. While high
certainty exists for areas north of point conception, much less
certainty exists for areas south of point conception.

The front looks to shear apart at point conception on Monday
morning. The amount of rain the south coast of california
receives will depend much on how much westerly flow is prevalent
to push rain into ventura and los angeles counties and how well
organized the frontal boundary remains after the point. While
model guidance is converging higher favoring steady rain for
central california, it is not as clear cut for southern
california. Model guidance gives a wide range of pops with some
models suggesting little to no rain. Pops have changed little over
the previous forecast cycles, but a few tweaks were made and pops
were increased along the northern slopes of the mountains and
into the antelope valley.

Storm total rainfall amounts remain inline with previous
forecasts, emphasizing generally a quarter to half inch north of
point conception with local amounts to around an inch in the san
luis obispo county foothills. South of point conception, most
areas will see a tenth of an inch or less (if any), except for local
amounts up to a quarter inch in the foothills of southern santa
barbara county, the santa ynez range, and the ventura county
mountains.

A drying trend will take shape through Monday night and Tuesday as
high pressure builds in behind the trough. The ridge is currently
building into 150w with an axis extending from near the hawaiian
islands north to 50n. A warming trend will develop for Tuesday
through Thursday. Daytime temperatures will likely peak on
Thursday. Some valley locales could reach the 80s for daytime
highs when temperatures are expected to be the warmest.

Only wind concerns at this time seem to be the possibility of
gusty northerly winds through the interstate 5 corridor and across
southern santa barbara county Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Long term (thu-sun) 16 252 pm.

Ridging aloft will breakdown on Friday as a weak disturbance runs
into the ridge on its heels. Maybe a few showers could develop
with this shortwave trough, but it looks more likely to bring some
clouds, cooling, and breezy to locally gusty winds across the
area. Another series of weak storm systems is also possible for
over next weekend and another on christmas day. Rainfall amounts
with any of these systems will light, likely a quarter of an inch
or less.

Aviation 17 0039z.

At 2230z at klax... The marine layer was around 700 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was near 1200 ft with a temp of 17 deg c.

There was also a subsidence inversion above the marine layer, with
a top at 2600 feet and a temperature of 18 degrees c.

Moderate confidence in 00z tafs for sites north of pt. Conception,
with a frontal system bringing rain and lowering CIGS vsby across
the area. Ifr conditions are expected overnight, with potential
for lifr between 10z-17z.

Moderate to high confidence in tafs south of pt conception, with
MVFR conditions overnight along with rain chances.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 00z taf. High confidence that there
will be no east wind component greater than 6 kt. There is a
slight chance of showers Monday 14z-20z with MVFR CIGS starting by
05z. Timing of CIGS may differ by + - 2 hrs from TAF times.

Kbur... High confidence in 00z taf. There is a slight chance of
showers Monday morning with MVFR CIGS possible after 20z.

Marine 16 939 am.

Moderate to high confidence in the current forecast. A moderately
large northwest swell across the coastal waters will persist
through today producing hazardous seas across outer and northern
coastal waters.

Tonight through Tuesday, a very large wnw swell will move through
the coastal waters. This swell is expected to affect west to
northwest facing harbors, including morro bay, where dangerous
conditions are likely to occur in the harbor entrance. Ventura
harbor could also be affected on Monday through at least Tuesday
as some of the energy from the swell filters into the southern
california bight. Moderate-to-high seas will then persist through
Thursday.

Otherwise, winds should remain below small craft advisory (sca)
levels through Thursday except for a 50%-60% chance of SCA level
gusts at times for the southern two outer waters zones (pzz673 and
pzz676) Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Beaches 16 941 am.

High surf conditions will continue across the central coast
this weekend. From tonight through Tuesday, a very large long
period west-northwest swell (290 degrees) will impact the central
coast, likely bringing very large and potentially damaging surf
during that time. As a result, high surf warnings will be in
effect for the central coast due to the high confidence in the
event. Surf heights of 18 to 25 feet are expected across the
central coast, with local sets up to 30 feet possible.

A coastal flood advisory will also be in effect to coincide with
the timing of the high surf warning. Water could spill into
normally dry beaches, beach parking lots and harbor walkways.

Potential impacts of this dangerous surf event for the central
coast include beach erosion, very strong rip currents, possible
damage to piers and coastal structures, as well as large breaking
waves into morro bay harbor which could capsize small boats.

Due to the long period nature of this swell energy (19 to 20
seconds), some of this large swell energy is expect to wrap
around into areas south of point conception impacting west-
facing beaches of la, ventura, and southern sba counties.

High surf advisories have been issued for this area where west-
facing beaches will generally see 6 to 12 foot breakers, with the
highest amounts likely for the ventura county coast. There is the
potential for local sets to 15 feet across ventura harbor as
well, with a 20 percent chance of needing to be upgraded to high
surf warning thresholds. Surf of 5 to 8 feet is expected for the
south santa barbara county coast, highest around rincon point.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... High surf advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening for
zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf warning in effect from 9 pm this evening to 9 am
pst Tuesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

Coastal flood advisory in effect from 9 pm this evening to 9
am pst Tuesday for zones 34-35. (see laxcfwlox).

High surf advisory in effect from 4 am Monday to 10 pm pst
Tuesday for zones 39>41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 2 am
pst Thursday for zones 645-670-673-676. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 2 am
Monday to 9 pm pst Tuesday for zone 650. (see laxmwwlox).

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas in effect from 9 am
Monday to noon pst Tuesday for zone 655. (see laxmwwlox).

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
An extended period of high surf and dangerous rip currents will
continue at all beaches through Thursday. Gusty northerly winds
are possible into Wednesday morning across southern santa barbara
county and through the interstate 5 corridor.

Public... Hall
aviation... Smith
marine... Sweet
beaches... Sweet
synopsis... Kj
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi37 min 62°F4 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi55 min 63°F1020.4 hPa
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi37 min 63°F5 ft
AGXC1 25 mi49 min W 11 G 13 60°F 1020.5 hPa
46253 25 mi37 min 63°F4 ft
PFDC1 26 mi49 min SW 5.1 G 6
PXAC1 27 mi49 min W 1 G 2.9
46256 27 mi37 min 62°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi47 min WNW 9.7 G 12 61°F 62°F3 ft1020.1 hPa59°F
PSXC1 28 mi49 min W 8.9 G 11
BAXC1 28 mi49 min WNW 8 G 8.9
PFXC1 28 mi49 min WNW 1 G 1 60°F
PRJC1 29 mi49 min W 8 G 9.9
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi55 min WSW 9.9 G 12 60°F 62°F1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA14 mi46 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F52°F100%1020.6 hPa

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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmSE4SW5SE4CalmNW5CalmNW3NW3W6CalmSW4CalmW7CalmW6S4W12
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1 day agoSW8SW7E3S4CalmCalmNW7CalmE3CalmSW5CalmW4N3W4W3W4W4W6W8W6SW4SW4W3
2 days agoSE3E3SE4SE6SE4S5SE5CalmS5S6S5SW6SW5CalmCalmE3CalmSW3SW3SW4W4W5W7NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:28 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:58 AM PST     4.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:33 AM PST     1.94 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:38 PM PST     3.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:44 PM PST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.43.13.74.24.34.23.83.32.72.3222.22.52.93.23.232.62.11.71.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California (2)
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:28 AM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:58 AM PST     4.28 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:34 AM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:00 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:40 PM PST     3.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:42 PM PST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.72.43.13.74.14.34.13.83.22.72.2222.22.52.93.13.232.62.11.71.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.