Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:04PM Monday March 18, 2019 8:41 AM PDT (15:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:38PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 212 Am Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Today..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Tonight..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 13 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds and S 3 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell W 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 15 seconds, building to 6 to 8 ft at 14 seconds after midnight. Chance of showers.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 6 to 8 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ600 212 Am Pdt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 09z...or 2 am pdt...a 997 mb low was located around 800 nm W of portland or. A 1018 mb high was located 500 nm sw of point conception.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 181206
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
506 am pdt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis 18 321 am.

Warm and dry conditions will continue today. A storm will approach
the area on Tuesday... Clouds will increase and MAX temperatures
will fall. Showers are likely on Wednesday along with some
mountain snow and a slight chance of mountain thunderstorms. The
system will pull out on Thursday and skies will clear through the
day. It will be dry and warmer on Friday.

Short term (tdy-wed) 18 305 am.

Sunday's ridge will flatten out and move to the east today.

Onshore gradients will increase in the afternoon. This will lead
to several degrees of cooling across the csts vlys, especially
across the coastal plain, where MAX temps should be down 6-10
degrees, with 3-6 degrees of cooling in the valleys. MAX temps in
the mtns and deserts should change little or may actually inch up
a degree or two.

An upper low moving through the eastern pacific will approach the
west coast tonight and tue, with a trof extending southward.

The lowering hgts and cyclonic flow will spin up a batch of night
through morning low clouds to most coastal areas tonight and tue
morning. Later in the day mid and high clouds will push into slo
and sba counties. Onshore gradients will increase further, and
max temps will drop several more degrees in most areas. Any rain
from the approaching upper low and associated trough will likely
hold off until the evening.

On Tuesday evening the trof will take on a negative tilt and will
likely spawn a cut off low at its base just to the west of the
central coast. Showers will become likely across most of slo and
sba counties as the upper low approaches and a chance of showers
will develop vta and la counties in the SW flow moving up and into
them.

The low will then move eastward and over the southern san joaquin
vly on Wednesday. The weak PVA and somewhat unstable atmosphere
will likely bring showers to the entire area. During the afternoon
there will be enough cool air aloft to destabilize the atmosphere
over the mtns enough to warrant a slight chc of tstms. This chc
will last into the evening. This system does not have an external
moisture source so it will not produce that much rainfall
generally around a third of an inch... A little more over the
central coast and a little less over la county. Rainfall rates
will very likely remain under worrisome intensities. The SW flow
may well generate low end wind advisory gusts in the mtns. Max
temps will drop to 5 to 10 degree blo normals as the clouds and
low hgts work in concert to cool things off.

Snow levels will start out high at 6500 feet. Model solutions
agree that 700 mb temperatures will cool to near -7 degrees
celsius on Wednesday, but 850 mb temps will only fall to +2 to +4
celsius. Snow levels should drop to 5000 feet or so, which would
keep accumulating snowfall above the mountain passes such as the
grapevine portion of interstate 5 near los angeles-ventura-kern
county borders.

The low will pull out of the area Thursday. There is a slight chc
of a few showers over la and vta counties as well as the interior
vlys of slo and sba counties but these showers will not be very
much at all. Otherwise look for clearing skies and continued below
normal MAX temps.

Long term (thu-sun) 17 355 pm.

Models solutions start to diverge between Thursday and Saturday.

The ECMWF solution is a little slower with bringing the next
system in, while the operational GFS solution is a tad quicker. A
majority of the 12z GFS ensemble solutions have rain into the
central coast on Friday night, which agrees well with ecmwf
solutions. Pops have been nudged higher for late week and into
next weekend. Higher confidence in cooler and cloudier conditions
continuing for the period. Less confidence is pops and timing.

Aviation 18 1205z.

At 1200z at klax, there was a 700 ft marine layer. The top of the
inversion was around 2000 ft. With a temperature of 20 degrees c.

N of point conception... Moderate confidence with 12z tafs through
06z then lower confidence for coastal TAF sites in respect to
timing of vlifr ifr stratus. 40% chance for lower CIGS to develop
as early as 03z. Higher confidence for stratus to affect ksmx
compared to ksbp. High confidence with kprb 12z taf.

S of point conception... High confidence with 12z tafs away from
the coast. Moderate confidence for coastal TAF sites through 06z
this evennig. Then confidence lowers in respect to lifr ifr conds
for l.A. And vtu county sites. Higher confidence that ksba will
remainVFR.

Klax... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru 06z.

There is a 10-20% chance of stratus with ifr conds thru 16z.

There is a 20-30% chance that stratus will not materialize until
after 12z tue.

Kbur... High confidence in the 12z TAF withVFR conds thru the pd.

Marine 18 212 am.

For the outer waters, high confidence in the forecast thru tue
morning with winds and seas below small craft advisory (sca)
levels. By Tuesday afternoon into Tue evening, there is a 50%
chance for the northern zone (pzz670)for southerly winds
increasing to SCA level gusts. On Wed and thu, there is a 50%
chance of SCA level W to NW winds across the entire outer waters.

For the inner waters north of pt sal, high confidence in current
forecast through Tue night with winds and seas below SCA levels.

On wed, there is a 20%-30% chance of SCA level W winds, and for
thu there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level W to NW winds.

For the inner waters south of pt conception, there is high
confidence that winds and seas will be below SCA levels through
tue night. On wed, there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level W wind
gusts at times, and for Thu there is a 30%-40% chance of SCA level
w to NW wind gusts at times.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... None.

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (wed-sun)
High surf could affect west and northwest facing beaches
Wednesday. Rain is likely and gusty winds are possible with a
storm system moving over the region Wednesday and Thursday. Snow
could affect mountain passes Wednesday and Thursday.

Public... Rorke hall
aviation... Kaplan
marine... Kaplan db
synopsis... 30
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi41 min 58°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi41 min 57°F3 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi47 min 60°F1015.6 hPa
46253 25 mi41 min 58°F3 ft
AGXC1 25 mi41 min E 1.9 G 1.9 59°F 1015.5 hPa (+0.9)
PFDC1 26 mi41 min E 1 G 1
46256 27 mi71 min 58°F3 ft
PXAC1 27 mi41 min Calm G 0
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 28 mi31 min E 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 57°F1014.6 hPa
BAXC1 28 mi41 min E 1.9 G 2.9
PFXC1 28 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 62°F
PSXC1 28 mi41 min SE 1 G 1.9
PRJC1 29 mi41 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 59°F 58°F1015.5 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA14 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair65°F35°F33%1014 hPa

Wind History from AVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NE5NE8NE6NE6NE5N7NW6W6W6W7W7NW11NW8NW7W6W6NW5NW5W6W4NW4NW3Calm
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E12NE86N44W8W7W6W7NW15NW10NW12NW9W3CalmCalmE5NE5E5NE7E7NE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM PDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM PDT     5.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:57 PM PDT     -1.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:16 PM PDT     4.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.31.62.33.44.55.35.75.44.53.11.60.2-0.8-1.1-0.70.31.62.944.44.33.7

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California (2)
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:03 AM PDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM PDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:59 PM PDT     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:37 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:04 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:15 PM PDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.61.31.62.33.34.55.35.65.34.43.11.60.2-0.8-1.1-0.70.21.62.93.94.44.33.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.