Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Avalon, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:36PM Friday August 18, 2017 8:44 PM PDT (03:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:59AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ655 Inner Waters From Point Mugu To San Mateo Pt. Ca Including Santa Catalina And Anacapa Islands- 816 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 11 seconds and S 3 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less...becoming sw 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Sun night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt in the evening...becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 1 to 2 ft at 10 seconds. S swell 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 2 ft and S 2 ft.
PZZ600 816 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 20z...or 1 pm pdt...a 1030 mb surface high was about 600 nm W of eureka and a 1008 mb low was near las vegas.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avalon, CA
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location: 33.51, -118.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 190327
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
827 pm pdt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Possible showers and thunderstorms for the mountains of ventura,
santa barbara, and los angeles counties and deserts into Monday. A
low will bring overnight low clouds and fog to the coast and some
valleys into next week, the temperatures will be near normal with
a warmup on Thursday and into the weekend as the low weakens.

Short term (tonight-mon)
weak upper level low pressure system off the coast of southern
california helping to bring some mid level moisture and
instability across the local mountains this afternoon. As a
result, there were some cloud buildups over the local mountains,
with one thunderstorm observed near pine mountain club across the
border of the ventura kern county mountains. Otherwise, satellite
imagery showing some low clouds returning to some coastal areas
this evening, especially la county and the central coast. Acars
data showing marine layer depth across the la basin around 1400
feet, so still deep enough for some low clouds to locally extend
into some of the coastal valleys overnight. A slightly stronger
onshore flow on Saturday with greater coverage of marine layer
clouds in the morning should allow for a couple of degrees of
cooling for most areas on Saturday.

The main weather focus for Saturday will be the thunderstorm
threat over the local mountains. Latest 00z NAM model showing
upper level low pressure system in a more favorable location for
convection tomorrow afternoon, with a vort MAX swinging into the
ventura county mountains. Precipitable water values were
generally around 1 inch this afternoon, and are expected to
increase to between 1.2 and 1.4 inches by late Saturday afternoon
across ventura and santa barbara counties. 00z NAM cross sections
focusing best moisture across the mountains of ventura and santa
barbara counties, where there is greater instability (with lifted
index values ranging between -4 and -8). Model soundings over the
ventura sba county mountains also showing impressive surface based
cape values ranging between 1000 and 2000 j kg. Based on the
better moisture instability profile, have increased TSTM threat
for ventura sba county mountains for Saturday afternoon into early
evening in evening update. While moisture levels are still only
moderate, upper level steering winds are rather weak. As a result,
any thunderstorm that do develop will be slow moving, capable of
producing brief heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding
potential. If these convective parameters are anywhere close to
what the NAM are indicating, thunderstorms will also have the
potential for large vertical growth, increasing the potential for
gusty downdraft winds and small hail. With the mid level wind flow
being more northerly tomorrow afternoon, some of these storms
could drift towards the foothills of the ventura county valleys as
well as the eastern portions of the santa ynez mountains.

*** from previous discussion ***
today is another fairly seasonal day with moderate onshore flow
in place across the region. The upper level trough will remain
into next week, but weaken a bit Saturday as 500 mb heights climb
slightly. The 1000-foot marine layer depth this morning should
deepen through the weekend, possibly deepening to near 2000-2500
feet by Monday. Near persistence seems to be the best forecast for
the immediate coastal locales through the weekend and into early
next week. Away from the coast, temperatures will cool for early
next week, after a slight warm-up today and Saturday.

The focus of the forecast for the weekend will be on the instability
associated with the trough. East to southeast flow aloft could
draw in enough moisture to get rain out of the afternoon clouds. Pops
with isolated showers and thunderstorms extended through Monday
but still only at the slight chance level.

Long term (tue-fri)
by Tuesday the marine layer should deepen as the trough deepens
and slowly lifts out of the region through Wednesday. Night
through morning drizzle cannot be ruled out for the southland
early next week as the marine layer depth will likely deepen
substantially between Monday and Wednesday. Current forecast keeps
marine layer depths inline with 2000-2500 feet, but a depth up to
near 4000 feet between Tuesday and Wednesday would not be
shocking. A general cooling trend should be expected into midweek
next week as the trough wobbles around and creates ebbs and flows
of the marine intrusion.

Drier southwest flow aloft looks to develop for the latter half of
next week as the trough lifts out. Another weak trough of low
pressure reforms off the pacific northwest coast and a ridge of
high pressure remains centered over the southeast states. GFS is
still liking a warm up late in the week next week.

Aviation 18 2320z...

at 2320z, the marine inversion at klax was based at 1400 feet.

The top of the inversion was 5300 feet with a temperature of 21
degrees celsius.

Timing of return of low CIGS vsbys may be off by 3 hours or a
category lower than forecasted (or higher as well for ksmx). There
is a 20 percent chance of ifr CIGS vsbys for kvny and kprb
between 12z and 16z. There is a 20 percent chance thatVFR
cigs vsbys prevail through the period at ksba.

Klax... Moderate confidence in 00z TAF after 05z. Return of low
clouds is possible between 05z and 11z with a 30 percent of ifr
cigs vsbys, which would be most likely between 05z and 10z.

Kbur... Moderate confidence in 00z taf. Have included a brief
ifr cig for kbur early Saturday morning, but there is a 30 percent
chance that no cig will arrive.

Marine 18 800 pm...

for the outer waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Winds and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory (sca) levels through at least Tuesday. However... There is
a 40% chance that local gusts to 25 knots near point conception become
more widespread this evening... Requiring issuance of a sca.

For the inner waters, high confidence in current forecast. Winds
and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from Saturday afternoon
through Sunday evening for zones 40-41. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
a high risk of rip currents exists at area beaches through the
weekend, and a beach hazard statement is in effect through Sunday
evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
for Sunday and Monday.

Public... Gomberg jld
aviation... Gomberg
marine... Smith
synopsis... Stu
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46222 - San Pedro, CA (092) 19 mi45 min 70°F3 ft
46221 - Santa Monica Bay, CA (028) 24 mi45 min 71°F3 ft
OHBC1 - 9410660 - Los Angeles, CA 24 mi45 min 67°F1013.8 hPa (-0.0)
AGXC1 25 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 12 68°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.0)
46253 25 mi45 min 71°F3 ft
46256 27 mi53 min 69°F3 ft
46025 - Santa Monica Basin - 33NM West Southwest of Santa Monica, CA 27 mi35 min W 7.8 G 12 70°F1013.6 hPa
PFXC1 28 mi45 min NNW 8.9 G 11 70°F
BAXC1 28 mi45 min NW 11 G 12
PSXC1 28 mi45 min WNW 5.1 G 8
PRJC1 29 mi45 min WNW 5.1 G 7
ICAC1 - 9410840 - Santa Monica Pier 35 mi45 min WSW 9.9 G 13 65°F 72°F1014.2 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Angels Gate, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Avalon Catalina Airport, CA14 mi54 minSW 80.75 miFog/Mist60°F59°F96%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from AVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9SW5SW4CalmSW5SW7SW4SW6SW3CalmCalm3W4W53W7SW10SW10SW11SW10SW8SW8SW8
1 day agoNW3W4W6W3NW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSE4S4Calm44N6W7SW10SW11SW9W9SW8SW8SW6
2 days agoSW5W5W5SW5SW4W4SW6SW6SW6W6SW5SW4SW6W7W6W96W9SW11SW12SW9SW9W6NW3

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM PDT     3.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:26 PM PDT     1.98 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:36 PM PDT     6.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.8-0.1-0.4-0.10.71.72.73.53.93.93.532.422.12.53.44.55.56.16.15.64.53.1

Tide / Current Tables for Catalina Harbor, Santa Catalina Island, California
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Catalina Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:01 AM PDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:58 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:24 AM PDT     3.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:24 PM PDT     1.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:17 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:33 PM PDT     6.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.7-0.1-0.4-0.10.61.62.73.53.93.83.42.92.31.922.53.44.45.4665.54.43

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Santa Ana Mtns, CA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.