Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Murrells Inlet, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:28PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 5:08 PM EDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 6:14PMMoonset 6:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 252 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late this evening. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of rain this evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt, becoming s. Seas 1 foot.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
AMZ200 252 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Low pressure will move north across cape fear late this evening. A cold front will sweep through from the west Thursday evening. High pressure will build in from the west Friday and Saturday, moving overhead on Sunday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Murrells Inlet, SC
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location: 33.54, -79.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 201823
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
223 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure off the coast will slowly move onshore tonight
into early Thursday, spreading rain mainly across southeastern
north carolina. Dry weather will return Thursday and continue
through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Low pressure and a cold front will spread clouds and
rain into the carolinas late Monday into Tuesday, followed by
high pressure on Wednesday.

Near term through Thursday night
As of 300 pm Wednesday... A sharpening coastal trough off the south
carolina coast should become a closed surface low over the next few
hours. Models are nearly unanimous that the low will move
northwestward toward CAPE fear late this evening. Shallow isentropic
lift west of the low has led to a rather solid canopy of low clouds
and spits of light rain across much of the pee dee region this
afternoon. This has not been well-captured by the 12z models, but
should largely dissipate by this evening as easterly winds along the
290k theta surface (approximately 3000 ft agl) weaken, then reverse
overnight.

A more significant batch of heavier rain continues to organize near
the coastal trough southeast of CAPE fear. This is associated with
much deeper moisture and even some shallow convection along the west
wall of the gulf stream. Models show this rain moving northwestward
ahead of the surface low this evening, mainly impacting the
wilmington area. The potential for a half inch of rain or more
exists north of CAPE fear this evening, with most locations
elsewhere picking up only a tenth of an inch at best. Rain should
end from south to north as zone of ascent ahead of the surface low
moves farther inland by late this evening, but low clouds in the
residual cold inland airmass will wrap back down toward the coast
overnight. Lows are expected to fall into the lower 40s with some
mid 40s in the CAPE fear area.

A mix of clouds and some Sun is expected Thursday morning as a
shortwave moves across the area, but enough sunshine should make it
through for highs to surge into the 60s. Mid-level temperatures will
remain very cold throughout the day (-6c at 700 mb, -22c at 500 mb)
so steep lapse rates will probably result in some cumulus developing
despite surface dewpoints around 40f.

As a second energetic shortwave should across during the evening
with an associated surface cold front. Even steeper lapse rates from
the surface up through around 15kft should develop. Surface-based
cape could grow to 200-300 j kg as lower tropospheric winds become
westerly at 30-40 kt. The result could be a broken line of gusty
showers zipping across the area. While the pattern Thursday night
doesn't look quite as dynamic, this brings to mind an interesting
wind event that took place on march 7, 2004 when a stratospheric
intrusion behind a sharp shortwave encountered a similarly deeply-
mixed airmass and strong lower tropospheric winds. The result was a
large area of damaging winds 45-65 mph across much of nc. Again,
this pattern doesn't look quite as dynamic but I wouldn't be
surprised to see some breezy winds develop.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Axis of sharp mid-level shortwave will be off
the coast Friday morning. Very dry air through the depth of the
column will persist through most of the period, until some upper-
level moisture begins to work in from the west Saturday night. A
second shortwave will develop into a closed low as it drops across
the great lakes and across the mid-atlantic states Friday-
Friday night. The associated energy and moisture are expected to
remain to our north, with the cold frontal passage occurring
across the forecast area in the 00-06z Saturday time frame. Cool
high pressure will build into the area behind the front, and
settle over nc va Saturday night. High temps Friday should climb
into the mid 60s... Close to climatological norms, but a few
degrees cooler Saturday given northwesterly surface winds. Lows
Friday night generally upper 30s north to low 40s south.

Slightly cooler Saturday night, with fair radiational cooling
conditions. Lows are expected to drop into the mid 30s north to
near 40 south.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 3 pm Wednesday... Upper ridge axis and surface high pressure
will shift off the coast Sunday. West-southwest winds from the
surface through 250 mb will begin to usher moisture, and warmth,
ahead of another mid-level trough axis and surface cold front, and
models suggests FROPA in the early morning hours Tuesday. Pops will
begin to ramp up Monday into Tuesday, followed by deep layer drying
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temps Sunday and Monday will trend
higher, reaching mid and perhaps even some upper 70s by Monday.

Cooling down a bit Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 60s.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
As of 18z... A coastal low is developing just off the south carolina
coast and will move northward across southeast north carolina late
overnight. MVFR conditions are ongoing at the coastal TAF sites and
ifr conditions are expected by this afternoon with rain increasing
at kilm. Ifr conditions are expected at kmyr and kcre by late
afternoon and ifr to continue through the rest of the period for the
coastal sites.

At cre, myr, and flo the chance of measurable rain is less than
30% and MVFR conditions should last until 06z when ifr ceilings
are expected to last through 12 utc.

Extended outlook...VFR returns Friday and continue through early
next week.

Marine
As of 300 pm Wednesday... Low pressure developing near the west wall
of the gulf stream should move northwest and toward CAPE fear this
evening. Strong north-northeasterly winds earlier today gusted to
gale force for several hours at the frying pan shoals buoy and at
the offshore wrightsville beach cormp buoy. These winds have since
diminished to 15-20 kt and the gale warning will be replaced with a
small craft advisory with the afternoon update.

As the low moves inland this evening, wind should turn west to
northwesterly across all of the coastal waters, with speeds
generally 15 kt. Strong winds of the past 12-24 hours built an
impressive easterly swell which should keep wave heights elevated
significantly above what local winds would suggest through Thursday.

A cold front should move quickly offshore Thursday evening, with
another shot of moderate northwesterly winds to follow.

Northwest flow is expected through Friday morning on the order
of 15-20 knots as high pressure builds in the wake of a cold
front. The gradient will relax through the afternoon and winds
will remain offshore, through becoming a bit more westerly.

Another cold front will push across the waters Friday evening,
with winds becoming northwest once again. Gusts over 20 knots
will be possible immediately behind the front, diminishing early
Saturday as high pressure builds over the carolinas.

Surface high pressure will drift across the waters Sunday,
bringing southerly return flow Sunday night and Monday. Wind
speeds will trend up Monday and Monday night, and become
southwest ahead of a cold front, which will cross the waters
early Tuesday. Wind gusts may reach 25 knots behind the front,
and lead to small craft advisory conditions Tuesday.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm to 9 pm edt this evening for
scz054-056.

Nc... Coastal flood advisory from 7 pm to 9 pm edt this evening for
ncz106-108-110.

Coastal flood advisory from 9 pm this evening to midnight edt
tonight for ncz107.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for amz254-256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz250-252.

Synopsis... Crm
near term... Tra
short term... Crm
long term... Crm
aviation... Tra rh
marine... Tra crm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 14 mi83 min NNW 8 48°F 1018 hPa46°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi60 min N 19 G 25 53°F 59°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC14 mi72 minN 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast51°F44°F77%1018.8 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC20 mi93 minN 87.00 miOvercast45°F42°F93%1020 hPa
Georgetown County Airport , SC20 mi73 minN 510.00 miOvercast46°F44°F93%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10N8N7N4N7N6N7N9N6N5N6N9N9N9N11N10N9N9N9N11N12N10N12
G20
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1 day agoS10S5CalmNE3N8N8N13NE13N17
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2 days agoN5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmE5E7SE9SE9SE11S11S10

Tide / Current Tables for Wachesaw Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wachesaw Landing
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Wed -- 06:02 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:30 AM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 PM EDT     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 11:58 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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32.51.80.90.1-0.6-0.8-0.50.51.72.73.33.332.31.40.6-0.2-0.6-0.60.11.22.23

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Wed -- 02:21 AM EDT     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     5.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:37 PM EDT     5.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.9-0.3-1-0.80.323.64.85.35.14.33.11.70.3-0.6-0.9-0.21.22.84.25.15.24.73.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.