Monday, December11, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Murrells Inlet, SC

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:09PM Monday December 11, 2017 5:33 PM EST (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:56AMMoonset 1:28PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ256 Coastal Waters From Murrells Inlet To South Santee River Sc Out 20 Nm- 302 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
AMZ200 302 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2017
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front approaching from the west will bring increasing southwest winds to the waters tonight and Tuesday. This front will cross offshore late Tuesday with arctic high pressure returning for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will cross the waters Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Murrells Inlet, SC
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location: 33.54, -79.1     debug

Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 111946
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
246 pm est Mon dec 11 2017

The week looks dry although there is some risk for rainfall on
Friday. Sunshine will bring a modest temperature rise and we
will be close to normal by Tuesday. A strong cold front will
move across the area late Tuesday with arctic air returning
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Temperatures will
moderate late week. A cold front may bring a brief cool down to
start the weekend followed by a return to seasonable temperatures
early next week.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 300 pm Monday... A cool but beautiful afternoon ongoing across
the carolinas as broad high pressure centered across the gulf coast
expands into the region. This is accompanied by very dry air noted
on WV imagery, and cloudless sky conditions are present across the
entirety of the southeast. Well upstream into the western great
lakes, a surface low pressure beneath a strong shortwave is
producing clouds in that region, with the accompanying cold front
draping into the mo vly.

This front will cross the area on Tuesday, but before this occurs
increasing WAA around the southern high pressure will create
relatively warm temperatures for the next 24 hours. This is due to
warm advection on increasing SW flow within the warm sector ahead of
the aforementioned front. Moisture will slowly increase within the
column, but latest rap soundings show pwats only to around 0.5
inches tonight, so the area will remain mostly cloud free. The
exception may be well NW where a few mid high clouds may advect in
from the nw. Temperatures will drop quickly in the dry column after
dark, but then will begin to level off as S SW LLJ increases to 25-
35 kts. This will keep mins from bottoming out as radiational
cooling gets inhibited, and mins are forecast to be 40-42 at the
coast, 36-39 inland.

Sw winds increase Tuesday ahead of the front, and may gust above
25mph during the aftn eve. The strong cold front will cross the
region precip-free thanks to the dry column, but mid-level
cloudiness will increase during the aftn with FROPA occurring from
nw to SE during the evening. Strong CAA follows this front and 850mb
temps plummet from +1c to +3c early Tuesday, to -4c to -7c by the
end of the period. This will be accompanied by gusty NW winds, and a
very chilly night is forecast just beyond this period as temps begin
to crash Tuesday evening from aftn highs very near 60 degrees.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Monday... An arctic blast will bring the coldest day
of this season so far. Temps will drop into the mid 20s most
places tues night in a rush of cold and dry air with Wed afternoon
highs only making it into the 40s under bright sunshine. The
brisk NW winds will make it feel even colder with apparent temps
down in the teens right around daybreak Wed and feeling like
the 30s most of the day. A very dry air mass will remain in
place through Wed with dewpoint temps down in the teens and pcp
water values a quarter of an inch or less.

By Wed night, another shortwave will ride through the base of
the long wave trough in place over the eastern conus. The
associated sfc low will move by to our north, but may see some
passing clouds overnight Wed into thurs morning. The winds will
back slightly but not expecting much of moisture return. Pcp
water values will not even reach a half inch with moisture
profiles showing potential for some mid level clouds as
shortwave passes through overnight Wed into early thurs morning.

Temps overnight Wed may be a bit tricky as warmer air just above
the surface may mix down if winds spike up at all overnight.

Basically expect atmosphere to decouple allowing temps to drop
out down to the upper 20s to around 30 most places, a few
degrees warmer than previous night. Overall, a very cold and dry
period from tues night through Wed night.

Long term Thursday through Monday
As of 300 pm Monday... The east coast longwave trough will reload
late this week as another strong shortwave moves through the
carolinas on Friday. This upper system should induce low pressure to
develop at the surface over north carolina during the day Friday.

Moisture is going to be tough to find given deep layer winds have so
much offshore component, virtually eliminating gulf of atlantic
inflow. In fact the only moisture I can find arrives in the 850-700
mb layer from the northwest -- most likely pacific moisture that
came onshore in british columbia several days earlier. Dynamics are
going to be so strong that I still think there will be some light
measurable rainfall around, and i'm including a 30 percent chance of
showers in the forecast for Friday.

Dry weather will develop for Saturday and Sunday as a weak upper
level ridge pokes north from the caribbean and surface high pressure
moves eastward along the gulf coast. Model depictions of another
shortwave trough arriving on the east coast Monday vary quite a bit
from model to model, reducing confidence about what impacts we may
see. Pops of 30 percent have been introduced into the forecast for
Monday along with some increased cloud cover.

Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride through the weekend,
likely coolest on Saturday as the upper trough moves overhead and

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
As of 18z...VFR through 12 18z. SW winds 4-6 kt this afternoon,
becoming light and variable this evening. Overnight under clear
skies surface winds will increase to SW 6-10 kts by morning as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next front. Will
continue llws by 06-08z as soundings suggest wsw winds
increasing to 35-40 kts @ 800-1500 feet. Inversion breaks
14-16z, possibly earlier at the coastal terminals which should
alleviate llws and create gusty sw-wsw surface winds.

Extended outlook...VFR.

Near term through Tuesday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... Light S SW winds across the waters are
occurring in response to broad high pressure ridging eastward from
the gulf coast. These winds will generally become all SW and
increase steadily tonight and on Tuesday in the warm sector ahead of
a strong cold front. The current wind speeds of 5-10 kts will become
20-25 kts this evening and on Tuesday, becoming NW at these same
speeds behind the FROPA Tuesday evening. These winds will push seas
quickly up from their current amplitudes of 2-3 ft to 4-6 ft by
Tuesday morning, and the ongoing SCA remains in place. Have started
the hazard a bit earlier than inherited to capture the 20-25 kt
winds just before seas climb towards 6 ft, and the sca GOES into
effect at 6am Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night ...

as of 300 pm Monday... A rush of cold arctic air will keep
marine layer well mixed in gusty NW winds up to 20 to 25 kts
tues night. A small craft advisory will remain in effect through
early Wed in this surge, but winds will back and diminish
through the day on Wed allowing seas to subside. Overall expect
seas up to 4 to 6 ft tues night dropping down to 2 to 3 ft by
wed night. The off shore flow will keep highest seas in the
outer waters.

Long term Thursday through Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Monday... An active and windy weather pattern will
continue into Thursday and Friday. Another canadian cold front will
slide across the area on Friday. Low pressure is expected to develop
along the front, helping produce a surge of offshore winds Friday
night. The latest GFS model is actually showing gale-force winds
Friday afternoon and night, but other model guidance is not that
strong, instead keeping winds strong but below 30 knots. Our
forecast will go with this weaker wind forecast for now, implying a
period of small craft advisory conditions (w winds 20-25 kt) Friday
into Friday night. Winds and seas should improve on Saturday as
canadian high pressure builds in from the west.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am Tuesday to 7 am est Wednesday
for amz250-252-254-256.

Near term... Jdw
short term... Rgz
long term... Tra
aviation... Mrr

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 13 mi45 min 1020.5 hPa
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 14 mi108 min SSE 6 52°F 1018 hPa39°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 39 mi85 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 1017.5 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Myrtle Beach Air Force Base, SC14 mi37 minSSE 510.00 miFair49°F37°F66%1017.8 hPa
Georgetown County Airport , SC20 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair48°F39°F71%1017.9 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC20 mi38 minN 07.00 miFair45°F35°F71%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from MYR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmSW5W4SW5SW4SW5SW6SW6W5SW4SW5SW5SW5W4W4W6W6W3--3SE4S6S6SE5
1 day agoW9W8W5W6W8W9W9W9--W8W9W7W5W4NW6NW7NW10NW12NW11NW7NW7W7
2 days agoNE14NE14N10

Tide / Current Tables for Wachesaw Landing, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Wachesaw Landing
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Mon -- 12:01 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:34 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:26 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:08 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:47 PM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Midway Inlet North, Pawleys Island, South Carolina
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Midway Inlet North
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     4.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EST     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:33 PM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.