Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Phoenix, AZ

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 7:27PM Monday May 20, 2019 11:27 PM MST (06:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:28PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phoenix, AZ
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location: 33.57, -112.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 210547
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
1047 pm mst Mon may 20 2019

Update Updated aviation discussion.

Synopsis
Very cool conditions are expected today over the lower deserts with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm from N phoenix and over
high terrain areas north and east of phoenix. Cooler than normal
conditions will continue into next week as a series of upper level
disturbances moves through the region. Breezy conditions are
expected today, with very windy conditions returning again on
Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the next major weather
disturbance. The second system moving through will bring a few
showers to the area Wednesday mainly over high terrain areas north
and east of phoenix. Very cool temperatures will return Wednesday
with desert highs falling into the 70s. A warming trend and drier
conditions are expected Thursday into the weekend and by Saturday
many of the warmer lower deserts may see the low 90s.

Discussion
An area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that formed
late this morning along a line north of phoenix will continue for a
few more hours as it gradually drifts northeast of the valley by late
afternoon. The main impacts with today's activity has been gusty
winds, isolated lightning and small hail in n-ne phoenix and ne
maricopa county. Gradient winds have teamed up with the shower and
storm outflows to produce gusts as high as the 24-36 mph range.

Rainfall amounts in the n-ne valley to NE maricopa county range from
0.04-0.2 in. The showers and storms are supported by the
pronounced h5 cold core trough and a strong vort MAX with h5
temperatures aloft now near -23c to -25 as per SPC analysis. In
addition sufficient instability with sb-mucape near 500 j kg..

With the surface front already through the area highs today are
topping out only in the mid 70s or near 20 degrees below normal.

Wv and IR satellite imagery shows significant dry air moving in
from the west behind the activity. The drying will take hold from
now through early Tuesday as pwats briefly dip to near 0.4 in.

Before rebounding on Tuesday and Wednesday to about 0.65-0.70 as
per the GEFS plumes.

Temperatures will temporarily rebound on Tuesday before the next
weather system moves into the region from the north-northwest
beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will bring yet
another round of advisory level gusty winds and areas of blowing
dust over SE ca and SW az Tuesday afternoon, and much cooler
temperatures by Wednesday as it pivots into the region. This
dynamic system will feature sufficient mid level moisture, ivt and
pwat values, amidst forecast instability cape, and PVA to support
another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms similar to
what we've seen today. The best chances for precip will be
Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning, especially for the
northern and eastern fringes of the forecast area. High
temperatures on Wednesday are only expected in the low to mid 70s
across the region, or over 20 degrees below normal and would rival
the record low high of 71 degrees for Wednesday.

From Thursday trough Friday the low pressure system exits to the
northeast as the next trough axis digs swrd to offshore baja forming
a large, baggy trough with its trough axis positioned west of az.

A warming trend will take over from Thursday into the weekend,
although temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend
with weekend highs expected in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s.

Instead of forming a blocking pattern the latest model runs and
ensembles favor gradually filling and kicking the low out to the
northwest in a couple of stages ahead of the next early week
system from the north-northwest.

Aviation Updated at 0545 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
skies continue to clear tonight with only a few cumulus around 9
kft. A weak boundary has shifted winds to the east or northeast at
all terminals. Light anticyclonic flow around the valley may lead
to variable directions over the next few hours before settling
from the e-se around 10z- 12z.

By late Tuesday morning, winds will veer towards the SW and increase
through the afternoon ahead of another weather system. Couple hours
of southerly cross winds will be possible at kphx and kdvt between
16z-18z as winds shift. Breezy conditions expected during the
afternoon and evening, with speeds around 15-20 kts and gusts up to
25-30 kts. A few gusts may briefly exceed 30 kts between 1z to 5z
in the evening as a brisk low level jet noses into the area.

Skies will remainVFR through Tuesday afternoon with few cumulus
aoa 7 kft and cirrus.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
winds have subsided from the day at both terminals and should
remain AOB 15 kts through the night with a lapse in the gradient
winds as a brief ridge between upper level systems passes over the
region. Westerly to southwesterly winds then ramp back up across
southeast ca after 15z-16z, with speeds increasing to 25-30 kts
and gusts up to 40 kts by 20z. Blowing dust may lower
visibilities less than 4 sm at times. Skies will remain mostly
clear through the TAF period, aside from some cirrus.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Thursday through Monday:
cooler than normal, mostly dry and occasionally breezy to very
breezy conditions are expected for the period as a series of upper
level systems move through the area. The period will start out
with a warming trend on Thursday although with highs remaining
below normal. The highest temperatures are forecast for the
weekend with highs in the upper 80s lower 90s. Breezy conditions
will then resume on Saturday with breezy to very breezy conditions
developing on Sunday afternoon ahead of a dry weather system. Min
humidities near 20 percent will fall to the 11-17 percent range
by Friday. Mostly good to fair overnight recoveries will dip to
mostly fair to occasionally good over the weekend.

Spotter information statement amateur radio skywarn net
activation is not expected at this time.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm mst Tuesday for azz530.

Ca... Wind advisory from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Tuesday for caz560-563>569.

Wind advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for caz562.

Discussion... Sawtelle
aviation... Benedict
fire weather... Sawtelle


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ8 mi35 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds59°F37°F44%1008.7 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ10 mi37 minE 1010.00 miA Few Clouds64°F39°F40%1008.4 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ10 mi35 minSW 610.00 miFair60°F34°F38%1008.9 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ11 mi3.7 hrsW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F26°F19%1009.1 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ15 mi90 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F28°F23%1008.4 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi2.7 hrsSSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F32°F28%1009.1 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ21 mi34 minNNE 610.00 miFair60°F37°F44%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from DVT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW10
G18
SW13
G20
SW9SW11SW10SW11SW10SW12SW10S10
G14
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G17
SW11
G21
S5
G30
NW9S3SW10
G18
W12W13W12NW43E9E6
1 day agoSE4SW9SW7SW5SW3SE5SE7E6E5SE545SW9W11SW14SW16
G20
SW16SW13
G22
W16
G23
NW10NW5NW3W9SW10
G15
2 days agoCalmN3N6N4NE6N3NE5CalmS3SW5S75S4
G14
S8W8SW7
G17
SW11
G20
SW9SW9SW7SW5CalmSE43

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.